Friday, June 21, 2024

CFOs Say They are Investing to Replace Jobs with Automation and AI

With the caveat that intentions often are not matched by actions or outcomes, a survey of chief financial officers (enterprise and smaller businesses) suggests a majority of CFOs have implemented automation and artificial intelligence to replace workers, and plan to keep at it for the next year. 


source: Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond


 

source: Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond


source: Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond


Those forecasts are mirrored by estimates of AI-caused job losses by research firms and analysts. 


Source

Timeframe

Estimate/Forecast

Goldman Sachs

Next decade

300 million jobs affected globally

Forrester

By 2030

2.4 million US jobs lost (1.5%)

Forrester

By 2030

11.08 million US jobs influenced (6.9%)

ResumeBuilder

2023

37% of businesses reported AI-induced layoffs

ResumeBuilder

2024

44% of businesses anticipate AI-induced layoffs

World Economic Forum

By 2025

85 million jobs displaced globally

World Economic Forum

By 2025

97 million new roles created globally

Thursday, June 20, 2024

How Big a Market for Telco APIs?

At least some estimates of the eventual size of the "telco API" market are likely to be unrealized, just as the earlier unified communications and collaboration market has arguably seen.


That might be true, in part, because telco APIs are intended to allow connectivity service providers a bigger role in the UCC markets, as well as supporting network slicing and monetization of some other network functions.


The unified communications and collaboration market always has been difficult to categorize, to the extent that it includes so many disparate segments. And the same will likely be true fot the telco application programming interface market as well.


UCC traditionally includes video conferencing hardware, subscriptions and service; voice messaging features; premises voice appliances and services and often the connectivity services used by cloud-based UCC apps and services. About the only thing the UCC category has not traditionally included are the value of business voice services sold by telcos. 


UCC Market Estimate By

Market Revenue (USD Billion)

Year

CAGR

Fortune Business Insights

71.26

2023

17.70%

Grand View Research

136.11

2023

17.40%

IDC

64.7 (full year forecast)

2023

8.60%

Mordor Intelligence

145.58

2024

27.80%

Markets and Markets

$76.7 billion

2022

13.00%


The telco API market should include these and other newer features such as 5G network slicing. And high hopes notwithstanding, the telco API market might well wind up being a niche, as UCC has been. 

The perception by traditional connectivity service providers that the various UCC services are niches can be seen in the market share figures for UCC providers of hardware and services. Microsoft's Skype and Cisco Webex are leaders in conferencing. 


Most suppliers of UCC hardware have relatively small share, as do independent providers of UCC services. Also, note that video conferencing represents at least 44 percent of the total UCC market.  


One reason the UCC category exists at all is because each of the constituent revenue components are relatively modest. Note also that some UCC functions (messaging, voice mail, conferencing) are provided by apps and services not generally tracked in the UCC bucket, often because they do not represent “for fee” apps (Facebook Messenger and other messaging apps such as WhatsApp, Apple Facetime, Google Meet and email apps, for example. 


Firm

Market Share

Source/Year

Microsoft

21.8%

Statista (Q4 2023)

Cisco

15.2%

Statista (Q4 2023)

Zoom

7.1%

Statista (Q4 2023)

RingCentral

5.5%

Statista (Q4 2023)

Avaya

4.2%

Mordor Intelligence (2024 est.)

Mitel

3.1%

Mordor Intelligence (2024 est.)

Polycom (Plantronics)

2.8%

Mordor Intelligence (2024 est.)

NEC

2.5%

Mordor Intelligence (2024 est.)

GoToConnect

2.3%

Mordor Intelligence (2024 est.)

8x8

1.9%

Mordor Intelligence (2024 est.)

3CX

1.5%

Mordor Intelligence (2024 est.)


So now we hear about telco application programming interfaces (APIs) as a possible growth market. And the relationship between telco APIs and UCC is that the most-logical near-term revenue sources for telco APIs are apps and services that use UCC features (messaging, voice, videoconferencing). 


To be sure, many hope for new additional API instances and markets for elements of the 5G mobile network experience; network slicing or other elements of the 5G experience that can be supplied by the 5G core and access networks. 


And that is where the more-optimistic forecasts for telco API-related revenue seem to rely. That assumes developers will see value in licensing access to network features related to bandwidth consistency, latency or other network-derived features. 


And some of us might suggest that those values and possible markets are going to develop more slowly than some seem to expect. Even allowing for some shifts of market share among current providers, and faster “core” UCC market growth than we have seen in recent decades, most of the forecast growth would necessarily have to come from new API markets related to private networks or network features, plus the spending on infrastructure to support the use of telco APIs. 


At a high level, there always are alternate ways to solve an engineering problem, such as latency performance or computing cost. Basically, one can substitute bandwidth for processing (remote data center processing, for example) or processing for bandwidth (edge computing or on-the-device computing, for example). 


Study

Overall UCC Market Size

Segments

Forecast Period

Verified Market Research

$222.99 Billion by 2030

Deployment Model, Platform, Application, Region

2024-2030 CAGR 17.7%

MarketsandMarkets

$141.6 Billion by 2027

Component, Deployment Mode, Organization Size, Vertical, Region

2022-2027 CAGR 13.0%

Mordor Intelligence

$496.30 Billion by 2029

Deployment Type, Type, End-User Industry, Region

2024-2029 CAGR 27.8%

Straits Research (cited by Mordor)

$1,171.63 Billion by 2032

Not specified

2024-2032 CAGR 20.4%

STL Partners (cited)

$20+ Billion by 2028

Mobile Network APIs

-

Market.us

$1,459.5 Billion by 2033

Not specified

2024-2033 CAGR 18.1%

And the point is that there are many ways to solve a latency, bandwidth or processing problem. Telco APIs are one way to solve such problems, but there are alternatives that do not require use of telco APIs. 


And as a way of gaining market share in the traditional UCC market, telco APIs might be one way, but not the only way, to participate. Ericsson simply bought Vonage, for example, to gain capabilities of creating voice, messaging or communication solutions for any app. 


Acquisitions might be one way to gain share faster than creating standards and products using telco APIs. And the issue of market potential (total addressable market) would still remain. The reason telcos generally did not want to be PBX suppliers was always that the market was sub-scale for them. Those same issues apply to new cloud-based UCC solutions that essentially replace business phone and conferencing systems as well. 


Approach

Description

Advantages

Disadvantages

Telco APIs

Leverage network APIs from telecom providers to access capabilities like quality of service, network slicing, location services etc.

Can guarantee bandwidth, low latency, and prioritize critical traffic over public networks

Requires integration with telco platforms and potential costs for premium services

Edge Computing

Process data and run applications closer to the source/user on edge nodes instead of centralized cloud

Reduces latency and bandwidth needs by bringing compute closer to the edge

Requires deploying and managing distributed edge infrastructure

On-Device Computing

Perform processing and decision-making directly on the user's device (e.g. mobile phone, IoT device)

Minimizes latency and bandwidth needs by avoiding network round trips

Limited by device compute capabilities and battery life constraints

Private Networks

Deploy dedicated private cellular or wireless networks for specific use cases or environments

Offers predictable performance, security, and control over the network

Requires significant upfront investment in private network infrastructure

Content Delivery Networks (CDNs)

Distribute content and services across a global network of edge servers closer to users

Improves performance by caching content at the edge and reducing latency

Primarily optimized for content delivery rather than real-time applications

Peer-to-Peer Networks

Establish direct connections between devices or nodes without relying on centralized servers

Reduces bandwidth needs and latency by avoiding server hops

Complexity in managing peer discovery, connectivity, and security

Network Optimization

Techniques like compression, caching, load balancing to improve utilization of available bandwidth

Can enhance performance without additional infrastructure

Optimizations have practical limits based on network conditions


The issue is that at least some forecasts of potential telco API markets seem excessively optimistic.   


CFOs Say They are Investing to Replace Jobs with Automation and AI

With the caveat that intentions often are not matched by actions or outcomes, a survey of chief financial officers (enterprise and smaller ...