Employee Fear of AI Job Losses is Rational

Employee fear about job displacement from all new information technology and now artificial intelligence is not entirely unwarranted. Virtually every new information technology has had some impact on automation, and therefore on jobs. 

Recent estimates of the impact of information technology (mostly without AI impact) suggest both job losses and gains, as has been the pattern for most IT and new technology over time. 

Study or Source	Job Loss	Job Creation	Time frame
McKinsey Global Institute (2017)	Up to 800 million	Up to 950 million	Over the next two decades
World Economic Forum (2020)	Up to 1.5 billion	Up to 2.2 billion	By 2030
PWC (2017)	Up to 38% of jobs at risk	New jobs will emerge, but retraining may be needed

The issue is typically that the people losing jobs are different from the people gaining jobs. 

It might be quite reasonable to suggest that artificial intelligence will be more important for firms in some industries than others. Perhaps the only question is how important AI will be for “most industries.” 

AI's role arguably will be more important  in industries heavily reliant on data analysis, personalization, and automation, such as finance, healthcare, manufacturing, transportation (autonomous vehicles) or retail. In other industries, the impact might be more subtle.

Industry	Possible Importance of AI	Drivers of Value
Finance	High	AI can analyze financial data for fraud detection, risk assessment, personalized investment recommendations, and algorithmic trading.
Healthcare	High	AI can be used for medical imaging analysis, drug discovery, personalized treatment plans, and robot-assisted surgery.
Retail	High	AI can personalize product recommendations, optimize inventory management, automate customer service, and predict demand trends.
Manufacturing	High	AI can optimize production processes, improve quality control through machine vision, and enable predictive maintenance.
Transportation	High	AI is crucial for self-driving cars, traffic management optimization, and logistics planning.
Customer Service	Medium	AI chatbots can handle basic inquiries, automate tasks, and personalize customer support experiences.
Education	Medium	AI can personalize learning experiences, provide automated grading and feedback, and power intelligent tutoring systems.
Media & Entertainment	Medium	AI can personalize content recommendations, automate content creation (e.g., music generation), and power advanced special effects in movies and video games.
Legal Services	Medium	AI can analyze legal documents, predict case outcomes, and assist in legal research.
Agriculture	Medium	AI can optimize crop yields, monitor for plant diseases, and automate tasks like harvesting.
Construction	Low	AI can be used for building design optimization, construction site safety monitoring, and automating some construction tasks with robots.
Government	Low	AI can be used for fraud detection in social programs, improve public safety through video surveillance analysis, and personalize citizen services.
Hospitality	Low	AI chatbots can answer basic guest inquiries and automate tasks like booking reservations.

Also, AI arguably will be more important for some job functions than others. AI might excel where task repetitiveness and predictability are high, and there the impact will be automation. But AI effectiveness also requires large amounts of labeled data. 

Tasks that generate or involve standardized data--or labor-intensive or time-intensive iterations--are more susceptible to AI disruption. In the pharmaceutical industry, AI can evaluate many new and different combinations of molecules than humans can, faster. That should enable faster discovery of new therapies.  

On the other hand, tasks requiring creativity, empathy, complex decision-making, or social skills are currently less vulnerable to AI. So lots of jobs will eventually see a range of impact: more impact on routine elements of any job function; less impact on functions requiring complex decision making, social skills and non-routine innovation. 

Job Function	Potential Impact of AI	Impact
Data Entry Clerk	High	Repetitive task of entering data can be automated by AI.
Assembly Line Worker	High	Many manufacturing tasks can be performed by robots guided by AI.
Telemarketer	High	AI-powered chatbots can handle basic sales calls.
Loan Processor	High	AI can analyze loan applications and make approval decisions.
Truck Driver (Long-Haul)	High	Self-driving trucks pose a long-term threat to long-haul trucking jobs.
Paralegal	Medium	AI can assist with legal research and document review.
Bus Driver (Inner City)	Medium	Self-driving technology might take over simpler routes in the future.
Cashier	Medium	Self-checkout systems with AI are becoming increasingly common.
Customer Service Representative (Basic Inquiries)	Medium	AI chatbots can handle many basic customer inquiries.
Insurance Adjuster (Simple Claims)	Medium	AI can analyze data and automate decisions for simple claims.
Surgeon	Low	AI can assist surgeons, but complex decision-making and surgical dexterity remain human tasks.
Teacher	Low	AI can personalize learning, but human interaction and guidance are crucial in education.
Therapist	Low	AI cannot replace human empathy and emotional intelligence needed in therapy.
Software Developer	Low	AI can automate some coding tasks, but creativity and problem-solving remain essential for developers.
Marketing Manager	Low	AI can assist with data analysis and targeting, but human creativity is vital for successful marketing campaigns.