Thursday, July 25, 2024

AI--Like the Internet Before It--Will Cause Net Job Loss

Perhaps you have not lived through a disruption such as digital media, social media, the internet, targeted versus linear advertising or generative AI before. But we call it a “disruption” for a reason: revenue models; profit margins; growth trajectories and jobs all are affected. 


And it is unreasonable to expect that GenAI--a tool for creating content--will not disrupt business models, revenue streams, profit margins and jobs, like it or not. The internet, for example, disrupted advertising-driven industries. 


The shift to digital platforms dramatically reshaped the value of many advertising venues that had used a linear format. Compared to legacy media, online media was able to feature targeting based on actual end user behavior. 


Based on that understanding, content could be personalized, raising the possibility of engagement and better matching expected purchase intentions. 


Digital advertising allowed for more accurate measurement of campaign performance and return on investment. 


The ability to reach potential audiences--especially for specialty products--increased as a result of global reach.


Real-time adjustments: Unlike traditional media, internet advertising allowed for real-time campaign adjustments based on performance data.


Year

Total Ad Spend (Billions USD)

Digital Ad Spend (%)

Legacy Media Ad Spend (%)

2000

~$250

~5%

~95%

2010

~$400

~20%

~80%

2020

~$600

~50%

~50%

2024

$667.6

68.9%

31.1%

2027

$870.9 (forecast)

73.8% (forecast)

26.2% (forecast)


Generative AI, on the other hand, is more likely to disrupt the production of content rather than its monetization. Since 2000, we have seen mostly net negative changes in jobs in various industries, based on whether they are emerging (new fields such as AI or e-commerce, for example) or declining (replacement by internet mechanisms). 


Year

Job Sector

Jobs Gained (Millions)

Jobs Lost (Millions)

Net Change (Millions)

2000

E-commerce & Online Retail

0.1

-

0.1

2008

Manufacturing & Production

-

0.2

-0.7

2009

-

-0.8

0.1

-0.9

2012

Sharing Economy (e.g. Airbnb, Uber)

0.6

-

0.6

2016

Artificial Intelligence & Machine Learning

0.2

-

0.2

2020

E-commerce & Online Retail

2.8

0.8

-2.0

2021

Remote Work & Freelance Platforms

1.9

0.9

-1


Most industries have seen net job losses in most years since 2000, it might be worth noting. It might not be unreasonable to suggest AI in general will have a similar impact, over time. Though other value might be obtained, productivity improvements are likely going to have negative pressure on jobs. 


Year

Job Sector

Jobs Gained (Millions)

Jobs Lost (Millions)

2000

E-commerce, IT & Tech Support

0.1

Negligible

2003

Digital Marketing, Social Media

0.5

Printing & Publishing (0.2)

2006

Online Education, Web Development

1

Travel Agencies (0.3), Retail Sales (0.2)

2009

Cloud Computing, Cybersecurity

1.5

Manufacturing (0.8), Financial Services (0.4)

2012

Big Data, App Development

2

Administrative Services (1.0)

2015

Social Media Management, Online Customer Service

2.5

Telecommunications (0.5), Cable TV (0.3)

2018

Artificial Intelligence, Blockchain

3

Retail Sales (1.2), Transportation (0.8)

2021

E-commerce Fulfillment, Data Science

4

Cashiers (1.5), Factory Workers (1.0)

2023

Renewable Energy (due to climate change awareness)

0.8

Fossil Fuel Industries (0.6)


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