By definition, generative artificial intelligence investments by firms are expected to produce cash flows and profits over time, amounting to revenue by 2030 in the $40 billion to $8 trillion range for the full ecosystem (all firms, in all industries, using generative AI). That lower figure could be a problem, as it might represent revenues mostly accruing to suppliers of GenAI infrastructure such as chipmakers such as Nvidia.
By definition, buyers of GenAI infra expect to use the tools to create revenue above and beyond the cost of creating the capabilities. So consider that some forecasts of capex for GenAI alone range much higher than $40 billion, by 2030, on a cumulative basis, for a few firms investing in GenAI capabilities to support existing or planned products.
Indeed, the lower range of GenAI ecosystem revenues does raise a red flag for financial analysts, for the obvious reason that, at the lower ranges, GenAI revenues barely account for--or do not exceed--capex expected for a handful of firms.
To be sure, all forecasts at this point for GenAI revenue are somewhat speculative, beyond revenues for suppliers of GenAI infrastructure.
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