AI Will Transform at Least 25% of Jobs, and That's Likely Way Too Conservative

A study by the International Labor Organization suggests artificial intelligence will transform about 25 percent of jobs. That might be a low estimate. 

Consider the impact of personal computers and digital skills. A 2023 report by the National Skills Coalition, in partnership with the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, found that 92 percent of jobs analyzed required digital skills. 

The Brookings Institution analyzed changes in the digital content of 545 occupations (covering 90 percent of the U.S. workforce) between 2002 and 2016. They found a significant shift. 

In 2002, 56 percent of jobs required low digital skills. By 2016, this dropped to 30 percent.

The share of jobs requiring high digital skills jumped from five percent in 2002 to 23 percent in 2016.

Jobs requiring medium digital skills rose from 40 percent to 48 percent.

By 1993, nearly half of all U.S. workers were operating computer keyboards at work, a steady increase from 25 percent in 1984.

So the notion that AI will only affect 25 percent of jobs seems quite low. 

Study	Year(s) of Research/Publication	Key Findings Regarding PC/Computer Transformation of Jobs	Percentage of Jobs Transformed/Affected (where specified)
Autor, Levy, and Murnane	2003 (and later related works)	Introduced the "routine-biased technological change" (RBTC) framework, showing how computers automate routine tasks (cognitive and manual), leading to job polarization (growth at high and low ends of the skill spectrum).	Implied significant transformation across jobs with routine tasks.
Autor, Katz, and Krueger (NBER Working Paper No. 5956)	1997	The computer revolution explains a substantial portion (30-50%) of the increasing wage gap between college-educated workers and those with less education since the 1980s. Industries with high computer use reorganized work to disproportionately employ more educated workers.	Significant impact on the skill premium; "nearly half" of workers used computer keyboards by 1993.
Frey and Osborne (Oxford University)	2013	Analyzed 702 occupations, classifying them by susceptibility to computerization. Found that jobs with tasks requiring perception & manipulation, creative intelligence, and social intelligence are less likely to be automated. Identified "bottlenecks" to automation.	47% of jobs are at "high risk" of being computerized.
Bessen (Scholarly Commons at Boston University School of Law)	2015	Argued that computer use is associated with faster employment growth in occupations that use computers more, even routine and mid-wage jobs. Emphasized that automation often augments labor and leads to job reallocation and skill changes, rather than net job loss.	Computer use associated with ~1.7% increase in employment per year at sample mean.
National Skills Coalition with Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta	2023	Analyzed 43 million online job postings. Found overwhelming demand for digital skills across nearly all industries and occupations, including entry-level. Highlighted a significant "digital skill divide" where many workers lack foundational digital skills.	92% of all jobs analyzed required digital skills (47% "definitely digital," 45% "likely digital").
Brookings Institution	Analysis up to 2016	Examined the digital content of 545 occupations. Found a significant increase in jobs requiring high digital skills and a decrease in those requiring low digital skills.	Share of jobs requiring high digital skills jumped from 5% (2002) to 23% (2016).<br>- Low digital skill jobs decreased from 56% (2002) to 30% (2016).
Dillender and Forsythe (NBER Working Paper 29866)	2022	Investigated the impact of computerization on office and administrative support jobs. Found a modest positive effect on wages and employment in local labor markets, though overall employment in office support fell. Increased skill levels needed for these positions.	Administrative support share of employment returned to 1950s levels by 2019 after peaking in 1980s.
McKinsey Global Institute	2017 (focusing on impact through 2030)	Explored how automation technologies (including AI and robotics, building on PC foundations) will change or replace jobs. Argued that while some jobs will be displaced, many more will be changed, and new ones created.	60% of occupations have at least 30% of constituent work activities that could be automated.<br>- Estimated 75 million to 375 million workers (3-14% of global workforce) will need to switch occupational categories by 2030.