Tuesday, February 3, 2026

Can Netflix Become Disney Faster than Disney Can Become Netflix?

To a larger degree than might be immediately obvious, the new Netflix challenge might be whether “Netflix can become Disney faster than Disney can become Netflix.”


Source: Nano Banana generated image

It might appear that the prior challenge (since the 2013 to 2015 period), for Netflix to "become HBO faster than HBO becomes Netflix," has mostly been achieved.

That statement encapsulated the business challenge of Netflix becoming a content powerhouse faster than HBO could become a streaming giant.

Netflix largely succeeded, and an acquisition of Warner Brothers Discovery, though a gamble, might help with the next challenge, which is for Netflix to diversify and broaden its revenue sources to maintain higher growth rates as the core streaming business slows.

And that is where the Disney challenge is relevant, as many expect future Netflix growth to rely on new sources such as monetization of intellectual property (merchandising, for example); theme park or other experiential revenue streams; while maintaining a successful original content creation and distribution mechanism.

"Total entertainment share" now becomes a relevant objective for Netflix, which can seek greater wallet share across advertising revenue; live sports programming; merchandise; gaming; events and bundles of products.

As it once was said that “Disney has the mouse,” so Netflix might hope to expand from content creation and distribution to leverage its intellectual property in various other venues, ranging from events and physical entertainment attractions to live sports and gaming.

Netflix revenue growth and profit margins might hinge on success in that effort.

Logs and Splinters

"Why do you see the speck in your neighbor's eye, but do not notice the log in your own eye? Or how can you say to your neighbor, 'Let me take the speck out of your eye' while the log is in your own eye? You hypocrite, first take the log out of your own eye, and then you will see clearly to take the speck out of your neighbor's eye." (Matthew 7:3-5).


That passage is a classic (and exaggerated for effect) reminder that we humans are hypocrites.  A reasonable “definition” is that “a hypocrite is someone who believes they have virtues, beliefs, or feelings they don't actually possess. 


Many understandings might emphasize “pretending to have certain virtues,” but the more-common application might simply be that we often fail to live up to our own best versions of ourselves. We fall short, even when aiming at the target. 


It is less an epithet (“you’re a bad person) and more an observation about “human nature.” 


It might apply when a person’s actions contradict their stated ethical standards. The word is from the Greek word for “stage actor,” which gives you the flavor. 


More generally, it simply refers to the failings we humans have when judging others without recognition of our own failings. Consider the oft-heard phrase about “threats to democracy” or the claim of efforts to “protect democracy.”


Lots of logs, we might also say. 


Without agreeing in any way with some “executive power” embellishments President Trump might arguably prefer; his personality traits or anything else people may dislike about him, the frequently-heard and heated “threat to democracy” litany is disingenuous and betrays a stunning lack of objectivity. 


Or just call it hypocrisy. 


One might just as well allege that the actions taken by many who say they are Democrats pose equivalent or greater “threats” to democracy. 


Presumably because they see the president as an “existential threat,” almost any excessive remedies can be proposed, including violence of many sorts that overrides our settled governance procedures (elections, non-partisan judicial review, rule of law, “letting the system work”). 


But we also have seen other actions, ranging from efforts to disqualify the president as a candidate; politically-motivated impeachments; sentiments to “pack the Supreme Court;” actual suppression of some views; spreading action misinformation; efforts to deplatform opponents and bias in the mainstream media’s reporting. 


To be fair, many well-intentioned people will argue their proposals are not extreme; not dangerous to democracy; not extra-legal or inappropriate. In practice, language and action might be just as much an objective  “threat to democracy” as anything they believe the president is doing. 


AActor

Action

Description

Perceived Threat to Democracy

DDemocrat Politicians

Use of violent or elimination rhetoric against political opponents

Examples include President Biden referring to "putting Trump in a bullseye" and Rep. Dan Goldman stating Trump "has to be eliminated" (later apologized). Other Democrats have used similar language portraying Trump as an existential threat.

This rhetoric is seen by critics as inciting violence or normalizing extreme measures against opponents, potentially eroding civil discourse and leading to political violence.

DDemocrat Politicians

Efforts to disqualify political opponents from ballots

Democratic officials in states like Colorado and Maine attempted to remove Trump from primary ballots citing the 14th Amendment's insurrection clause.

Viewed as subverting voter choice and using legal mechanisms to eliminate competition, bypassing the electoral process.

DDemocrat Politicians

Partisan impeachments and investigations

Democrats impeached Trump twice, which Republicans argue were politically motivated without sufficient evidence.

Perceived as weaponizing congressional powers for partisan gain, undermining the legitimacy of oversight and eroding institutional norms.

DDemocrat Politicians

Proposals to alter democratic institutions

Suggestions to pack the Supreme Court, abolish the filibuster, or eliminate the Electoral College.

Critics argue these changes would concentrate power in the hands of the majority party, threatening minority rights and balanced governance.

DDemocrat Politicians

Support for censorship or restrictions on speech

Some Democrats have advocated for social media bans on certain groups (e.g., a Georgia Democrat candidate proposing a 4-year social media ban for MAGA voters).

Seen as infringing on free speech rights, a cornerstone of democracy, to silence opposition.

DDemocrat-Supporting Media

Spreading misinformation or biased reporting

Liberal media outlets accused of amplifying false narratives, such as the Russia collusion story, or suppressing stories like the Hunter Biden laptop.

Erodes public trust in institutions, polarizes society, and misinforms voters, undermining informed democratic participation.

DDemocrat-Supporting Media

Inciting division through partisan coverage

Networks like MSNBC portray Republicans as threats to democracy, using inflammatory language.

Contributes to political polarization and hostility, potentially leading to violence and weakening democratic cohesion.

DDemocrat-Supporting Media

Collaborating with tech platforms for censorship

Pressure on social media companies to deplatform conservative voices or label content as misinformation.

Limits free expression and access to diverse viewpoints, creating echo chambers and biasing public discourse.


No such criticisms excuse fair assessment of language, tone or action on the part of the president that some find offensive. But neither is it a fair assessment that the main or only threats to “democracy” come only from one side. 


They come from everywhere, from all of us, all the time.


Monday, February 2, 2026

AI Impact: Analogous to Digital and Internet Transformations Before It

For some of us, predictions about the impact of artificial intelligence are remarkably consistent with sentiments around the importance of innovation in the technology business we have heard since the 1980s and up through the internet revolution.


“In 2030, I think we will be bringing offerings and solutions to market that we can’t even envision

today because the technology isn’t there yet,” says Maureen Power Sweeny, RapidScale chief revenue officer.” I would say 50 percent of our revenues will come from new offerings.”


Some of us have been hearing that since the 1980s, and the sentiment seems borne out by events, and especially for digital products that can be created and adopted faster than older physical-only products. 


Five to 10 years is now multiple generations of product evolution in software, cloud, data, and AI.


Company

Product generating major revenue today

Year introduced (approx.)

What it displaced or superseded

Amazon (AWS)

Lambda, SageMaker, Bedrock

2014–2023

EC2-only compute, on-prem ML

Microsoft

Azure OpenAI, M365 E5, Copilot

2019–2024

Perpetual Office licenses, on-prem Exchange

Salesforce

Einstein AI, Platform, Industry Clouds

2016–2023

Standalone CRM licenses

NVIDIA

Data center AI accelerators

2017–present

Gaming GPUs as primary revenue driver

Adobe

Creative Cloud subscriptions

2013–2017 ramp

Perpetual boxed software

ServiceNow

Creator workflows, AI ops

2018–2024

ITSM-only positioning

Zoom

Phone, Contact Center, AI Companion

2019–2024

Single-product video meetings

Apple

Services (TV+, Pay, Arcade, Fitness)

2019–present

Hardware-only growth

Google

Cloud AI APIs, Workspace AI

2018–2024

Ad-only monetization model

Netflix

Ad-supported tier, originals

2016–2023

Licensed content distribution


But many industries feature high rates of innovation and product replacement. In many fast-moving consumer categories, 40 percent to 70 percent of active SKUs (stock keeping units) at major retailers are replaced within five years, even though the brand name on the shelf barely changes.


Category

Brand

Current high-volume SKUs (examples)

Introduced (approx.)

What they replaced or supplemented

Beverages

Coca-Cola

Zero Sugar reformulations, mini-cans

2017–2023

Full-sugar flagship SKUs

Snacks

PepsiCo (Lay’s)

Baked, Kettle, limited flavors

2016–2024

Core salted potato chips

Dairy alternatives

Danone

Oat-based yogurts, creamers

2018–2024

Traditional dairy SKUs

Household

P&G (Tide)

Pods, hygienic clean, cold-water

2015–2023

Liquid detergent bottles

Beauty

L’Oréal

Clean beauty, dermocosmetic lines

2017–2024

Mass cosmetic formulations

Food

Nestlé

Plant-based frozen meals

2019–2024

Animal-protein frozen SKUs

Alcohol

AB InBev

Hard seltzers, flavored malt drinks

2018–2023

Core beer SKUs

Personal care

Unilever

Sulfate-free, refill formats

2019–2024

Traditional shampoo bottles

Candy

Mars

Sugar-reduced, portion-controlled

2016–2023

Standard single-serve bars

Pet food

General Mills

Fresh, functional pet foods

2019–2024

Dry kibble-only lines


So one commonality with prior industry changes is rapid and continual product innovation. 


The other perhaps-obvious potential change is industry disruption. 


In 2030, enterprise success won’t be measured by steady progress toward long-term targets but by how much an enterprise disrupts its industry quarter by quarter, IBM researchers argue. 


The biggest risk won’t be making the wrong bets, but making bets that are too small, the authors argue. 


That again will sound familiar to those who witnessed the changes in firms and industries wrought by the internet. Netflix provides an example. 


Netflix disrupted multiple stages of the video entertainment value chain, first by unbundling physical retail rentals and later by collapsing production, aggregation, and direct distribution into a single global streaming platform.

source: Digital Leadership 


Value chain stage

Traditional role

Netflix’s move

Why it was disruptive

Content creation & commissioning

Studios and networks funded, developed, and greenlit shows and films, often for domestic first windows.

Became a major commissioner and producer of originals, including local-language series with global ambitions.academic.oup+1

Shifted power from broadcasters to a data-driven buyer with global reach, reducing reliance on legacy networks and altering bargaining dynamics.academic.oup

Aggregation & programming

Broadcasters and cable networks assembled schedules and channel line‑ups; video stores curated shelves.

Offered a huge on-demand catalog with personalized rows and recommendations instead of fixed schedules or shelves.accio+1

Undermined the value of linear programming and physical curation, making algorithmic discovery the primary gatekeeper of attention.accio+1

Distribution to consumers

Cable/satellite operators and retail chains controlled access via physical locations or set‑top boxes; households subscribed to bundles or rented per title.forbes+1

Delivered content over the open internet to apps on TVs, phones, and PCs via a flat-rate subscription.accio+1

Bypassed cable operators and retail stores, drove cord‑cutting, and shifted consumer spend from channel bundles and rentals to streaming subscriptions.intrinsicinvesting

Retail / rental monetization

Video rental stores monetized individual rentals and late fees, constrained by local inventory and store hours.linkedin+1

Introduced queue-based subscription rentals by mail, then streaming with no late fees and no trip to the store.linkedin+1

Eliminated the core revenue levers of incumbents (late fees, impulse rentals), making their store-heavy model uncompetitive.linkedin+1

Marketing & discovery

Studios and networks relied on mass advertising, trailers, and prominent placement in stores or schedules.

Used in‑product recommendations, personalized homepages, and data-informed promotion of titles.accio+1

Reduced dependence on external marketing funnels, internalized discovery, and extended tail consumption of niche titles.accio

International sales & licensing

Rights sold territory-by-territory with complex windowing across cinema, pay TV, free TV, and home video.

Negotiated multi-territory and global rights and launched near-simultaneous international releases on one platform.academic.oup+1

Collapsed layers of local intermediaries and windows, standardizing global access and weakening traditional territorial carve‑ups.academic.oup


The internet accelerated innovation by making information, markets, and coordination vastly cheaper and faster, turning experimentation by firms into a continuous, global, software-driven process. 


Enablers included:

  • Radically lower information and transaction costs 

  • Continuous software-based iteration, shortening innovation cycles from years to weeks or days.

  • Global market access​

  • Real-time feedback loops

  • Platform and ecosystem effects (e-commerce, app stores, social networks).


The take-away is that, as we have seen before, AI is going to enable more industry and firm disruption. 


Can Netflix Become Disney Faster than Disney Can Become Netflix?

To a larger degree than might be immediately obvious, the new Netflix challenge might be whether “ Netflix can become Disney faster than Dis...