Wednesday, March 11, 2026

AI Impact on Processes Likely Matters More than "Jobs"

Anthropic’s list of the jobs most affected by generative artificial intelligence won’t come as a surprise. It has been expected that artificial intelligence would have greatest impact on routine, structured processes, and as it might happen, lots of white-collar jobs actually have lots of those sorts of processes.

source: Anthropic


Conversely, at the moment, it appears the jobs least affected are those requiring physical dexterity, high emotional intelligence, or real-time physical presence (electricians, nurses, and chefs). 


Some will note, with significant reason, that generative AI is shifting the impact of automation from "blue-collar" physical work to  "white-collar" cognitive automation. 


Jobs with a high density of routine, language-based, or data-driven tasks might see the most significant transformation.


High Impact (Automation)

Moderate Impact (Augmentation)

Low Impact (Human-Centric)

Data Entry & Coding: Repetitive syntax and logic.

Management: Decision-making and team leadership.

Skilled Trades: Plumbing, electrical, construction.

Basic Writing: Summaries, emails, and reports.

Education: Personalizing lessons (but needs human mentorship).

Healthcare: Physical patient care and surgery.

Translation: Real-time linguistic conversion.

Sales: Relationship building and negotiation.

Emergency Services: Firefighting, policing, rescue.

Of course, we could be surprised. Physical constraints (power) might limit use, or legal impediments could increase friction. 


Factor

Direction of Impact

Key Indicator to Watch

Grid Capacity

⬇️ Lessens Impact

If 2026 power prices for data centers continue to skyrocket.

Agentic AI

⬆️ Increases Impact

If AI "Agents" can successfully operate internal company software (ERPs).

Legal Compliance

⬇️ Lessens Impact

If "Right to a Human Decision" laws pass in more U.S. states or the UK.

Demographic Shift

⬆️ Increases Impact

If the "junior developer" hiring freeze of 2025 becomes a permanent trend.

Consumers Hate Ads, But Like Saving Money

Nobody other than content providers, advertisers and others in the ad ecosystem really likes advertising. Consumers virtually universally dislike them. 


On the other hand, viewers and consumers generally like low-cost or no-cost access to content, so to the extent that advertising makes that possible, we tolerate it. 


So the YouTube move to ad non-skippable ads will not be universally welcomed


For all the criticisms of advertising-supported apps and computing experiences (intrusive, user experience disruption, privacy), user value also is created. 


Advertising functions as a subsidy that lowers the direct price consumers pay for media and content that might otherwise be unaffordable or have limited availability. 


Study / Source

Media Category

Estimated Consumer Value / Cost Reduction

Key Implication

Link

Brynjolfsson, Collis et al. (MIT / Stanford digital economy research)

Search engines, email, social media, online video

Search engines valued at ~$17,530 per year per user; email ~$8,414; online video ~$1,173

Consumers receive extremely high value relative to the zero or low prices paid

MIT summary of study

Brynjolfsson, Kim & Oh – “Attention Economy: Measuring the Value of Free Goods on the Internet”

Internet services overall

~$38 billion annual consumer surplus in the U.S. from free internet services

Traditional GDP misses large welfare gains from free digital services

Study summary

Brynjolfsson et al. (NBER 2024)

Social media

Median value of Facebook access ~$31.95/month; disutility from ads <10% of that value

Advertising annoyance is small relative to the value users receive from free platforms

NBER working paper

McKinsey Global Institute

Internet services broadly (social media, video, search)

~€150 billion annual consumer surplus from web usage in U.S. & Europe

Most value from internet use accrues to consumers rather than providers

McKinsey analysis

Carnegie Mellon / Stanford digital goods research

Digital goods broadly

$2.5 trillion annual global consumer welfare from digital goods

Free digital services generate welfare comparable to several percent of GDP

CMU summary

NBER Digital Advertising Program

Online media generally

Advertising enables provision of free digital goods and increases price competition

Digital advertising increases consumer welfare through free services and lower prices

Project description

IAB Consumer Study (2024)

Digital media broadly

~80% prefer more ads rather than paying for online services

Consumers explicitly recognize ads as the price of free content

Research summary


It’s just a value-cost tradeoff. So though some will inevitably oppose the notion of advertising defraying the cost of use of language models, there is a reasonable argument to be made that ad support helps model suppliers continue to support widespread “no extra charge” access.


Service

Ad-supported model

Cost without ads

Estimated annual savings per user

Google Search

Ad-supported search results

$100-$200/year (estimated cost of alternative search engines)

$100-$200

Facebook

Ad-supported social network

$100-$150/year (estimated cost of alternative social networks or premium features)

$100-$150

YouTube

Ad-supported video platform

$100-$150/year (estimated cost of alternative video platforms or premium subscriptions)

$100-$150

Spotify Free

Ad-supported music streaming

$120/year (estimated cost of music purchases or premium streaming)

$120

Microsoft Bing

Ad-supported search engine

$50-$100/year (estimated cost of alternative search engines)

$50-$100

News websites (e.g., HuffPost, BuzzFeed)

Ad-supported news content

$50-$100/year (estimated cost of news subscriptions or alternative news sources)

$50-$100


Likewise, advertising has enabled many forms of media and entertainment. 


Medium

Ad revenue as % of total revenue

Estimated annual ad revenue per user

Impact of ads on user cost

Traditional TV

50-70%

$200-$500 (depending on viewing habits)

Keeps cable/satellite TV costs lower

Radio

70-90%

$50-$100 (depending on listening habits)

Enables free over-the-air broadcasting

Streaming services (e.g., Hulu)

10-30%

$50-$100 (depending on subscription tier and ad exposure)

Offers lower-cost ad-supported plans

Magazines

50-80%

$20-$50 (depending on publication and ad exposure)

Keeps magazine prices lower

Newspapers

50-70%

$50-$100 (depending on readership and ad exposure)

Helps maintain free or low-cost online content

Online display ads (e.g., banner ads)

Varies

$5-$20 (depending on website and ad exposure)

Enables free access to online content


Sure, nobody really “likes” advertising. But what we do like is lower cost or no extra charge access. It’s an exchange like any other commercial transaction: the buyer gets something of value for a price, even if the price is attention or time.


AI Impact on Processes Likely Matters More than "Jobs"

Anthropic’s list of the jobs most affected by generative artificial intelligence won’t come as a surprise. It has been expected that artif...