Global PBX Sales Surged to $59 Billion in 2010

Is Your Business in a PBX Upgrade Cycle?

Buying a PBX in 2010 equated to a vote for ratcheting-up employee productivity, argue analysts at the Eastern Management Group. 


A new PBX, costing $1,200 per seat on average, gave companies permission to hold the line in other areas, according to John Malone, Eastern Management analyst. 


The argument is that companies upgraded phone systems as an alternative to hiring people.


In part, that view is driven by information technology managers who say productivity improvement drove 38 percent of all PBX purchases in 2010. This was 15 percent more responses than the "needed a new PBX to replace an old one" justification.

Company relocation and company expansion were responsible for only a modest proportion of PBX sales worldwide, says Malone. 


But other explanations are possible. The survey data suggests that about half of respondents in four out of six size categories are in a "PBX upgrade cycle." Granted, many of us do not follow the PBX market, so perhaps that is a "typical" percentage of firms actually in an "upgrade" position in a single year. 


Many of us might guess the number of firms looking to "upgrade" ("replace") a business phone system in a given year might range between 14 percent and 16 percent. A response ranging from a low of about 35 percent up to about 50 percent might strike an observer as unusual. 


The global market for PBX systems in 2010 was $59 billion. This is $7.5 billion larger than 2009, Eastern Management says. 

Global PBX Sales Surged to $59 Billion in 2010

SME Hosted PBX: Smaller is Better

The smaller the business, the more likely it is to prefer a hosted IP PBX solution over a premises-based solution, says Yankee Group VP Steve Hilton. The pay-as-you-go
approach coupled with minimal on-site IT support makes hosted solutions desirable for
small businesses.

Based on Yankee Group survey data, businesses with fewer than 20 employees are three times more likely to want hosted IP solutions, compared to organizations with 99 employees.

Buying preferences are about evenly split in the 20-to-99 employee range.

Demand for hosted solutions also seems to be quite a bit higher in the retail segment, as you might expect, as these are deployment situations where most people will not need voice or text communications most of the time.

Small businesses in retail segments (a segment with more branch or franchise locations per firm) are almost three times more likely to want hosted IP solutions, whereas firms in professional services and manufacturing sectors are more evenly split between hosted and premises-based IP solutions, says Hilton.

There are some obvious conclusions. Service providers able to deliver hosted voice soltuions over a wide geographic area are positioned to sell hosted PBX services to retail enterprises with lots of franchises to support.

Service providers without wide geographic reach will largely have to content themselves with a focus on professional and manufacturing prospects that more often operate out of one or just a few sites.

The paradox is that there is no simple answer to the question of whether hosted PBX service makes more sense for small or enterprise-sized organizations. Large retail entities often operate thousands of essentially small sites, even though a sale will be made at an enterprise level. Geographic scale then matters, even when the actual use case is a gas station, convenience store or fast food outlet.

Call Centers, Leaky PBX, Grey Markets

There are lots of reasons entities set up call centers: sell products; answer questions; technical support; fund raising; set up appointments.

Or, in some cases, to create not-quite-legal terminations for international long distance. Sometimes known as "leaky PBX" operations, the motivation for doing so is money. Significant amounts of money.

By some estimates, 30 percent or more of inbound global calls to Indian numbers are terminated outside the carrier-to-carrier settlements regime.

Estimates of traffic that skirts the settlements regime range upwards of 3.5 billion minutes a year or $150 million to $300 milliion a month that otherwise would have been earned by a licensed carrier.

In recent years, global carriers have paid Rs 5.50 in termination charges to an Indian domestic telephone company. In a leaky PBX or "grey market" operation, a service provider launders the traffic, making it look like a local call, avoiding the termination charges. This saves the global carrier about half what it otherwise would have paid. And the local termination network gains revenue because it makes money from the higher volume of traffic it gains.

The most popular grey market routes serve mobile phone traffic in high-cost termination markets. And that's where the call centers come in.

Grey routes often are created by call centers, as VoIP in some markets is legal when it is IP-based endpoint to endpoint. Until the laws change, and as India market mobile penetration climbs, so will the grey market.

Enterprise IM Shift: What to Do with the PBX?

Though we take it for granted that businesses "must" use a business phone system, that might be quite so true in just several years. In fact, Gartner predicts that by the end of 2011, IM will be the de facto tool for voice, video and text chat at the largest global enterprises.

Gartner estimates that 95 percent of workers in leading global organizations will be using IM as their primary interface for real-time communications by 2013. If that proves correct, we may now be witnessing the last wave of business phone system upgrades, as lucrative as the IP phone business, in its managed, hosted and premises-based incarnations, now appears to be.

There are other possible changes in store. Voice has been a one-to-one sort of communications pattern; mostly real time but with an ever-increasing asynchronous format. But with wikis, blogs, Plaxo, Facebook and other tools with a social and "push" updating capability, more forms of communication shift to a one-to-many, asynchronous mode.

One sort of "broadcasts" what one is doing, working on or needing help with, and the network just sort of responds as appropriate. Not good for control freaks, the ego-obsessed, the self-absorbed or mildly incompetent. People who are more respected, more trusted, more helpful, more knowledgeable and open will get more help than those who are in some significant ways "non-social." Winners and losers will be produced by the shift of communication modes.

As AOL's third IM survey shows, "everybody" now uses IM in their "consumer" life roles. The issue is how that will play out in the business context.

And though one might not yet see the change in the small business market, IM systems have moved from the fringe to become a key part of an enterprise’s collaboration infrastructure and increasingly are displacing existing forms of communications from ad hoc telephone calls and emails to pre-planned meetings and video conferences, says Gartner.

For many knowledge workers, instant messaging (IM) is as critical as having access to a telephone or to e-mail and enterprises that haven’t already done so should start incorporating IM into their critical business processes immediately, say analysts at Gartner.

“Although consumer IM use has been predominant in business, we expect penetration levels for enterprise grade IM to rise from around 25 percent currently to nearly 100 percent by the end of the decade,” said David Mario Smith, Gartner research analyst.