"Advertised" U.S. Broadband Speeds and "Experienced" Speeds Quite Closely Related, Ookla Finds

Despite the general carping one often hears about how U.S. broadband access speeds are woefully out of touch with "advertised" speeds, Ookla, the Internet access measurement service considered by many to be the most accurate, finds that "advertised" and "experienced" speeds are very close, especially considering that some amount of signaling overhead (Ookla says 10 percent to 20 percent is typical) is necessary in all cases.

As of October 3, 2010, the Ookla worldwide 'Household Promise Index" shows that globally, providers are delivering 87.25 percent of promised service speeds, with the APEC (Russia, Canada, United States, Australia) at 85.67 percent, the European Union at 84.83 percent, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development at 83.24 percent and the G8 (France, Germany, Italy, Japan, United Kingdom, United States, Canada and Russia) at 80.28 percent.

In addition, the top five countries are Republic of Moldova (110.26 percent), Lithuania (99.13 percent), Russia (98.86 percent), Slovakia (98.74 percent) and Ukraine (97.80 percent), with the United States at number 11 (93.00 percent).

As of October 3, 2010, Ookla's "House Value Index" shows the global cost of broadband at $4.36 per Mbps, with the top five countries in terms of "Relative Cost of Broadband" being Luxembourg, United Kingdom, Sweden, Norway and Denmark — the United States ranked 12th (out of 26 countries) at 1.21 percent of gross domestic product per capita or $46.75/month.

Comparing several U.S. States shows South Dakota ranks first at $2.91 USD per Mbps, New York ($4.22) ranks 8th, Washington State ($5.44) ranks 15th and California ($5.80) ranks 19th, with Alaska ranked 51st at $16.77 per Mbps.

The United States ranks 20th in cost per Mbps (out of 26 countries total), but ranks 15th when taking into account gross domestic product per capita, Ookla says.

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Broadband Adoption: Under Par for the Course

Since broadband first became widely available to consumers in the late 1990s, adoption has hit the
halfway point faster than most other information and communication technologies.

It took 18 years for the personal computer to be used by 50 percent of Americans at home and 18 years for color TV to reach half of homes.

Mobile phone penetration took 15 years to reach the "half of homes" point. It took 14 years for the video cassette recorder, and 10 and one half years for the compact disc player to reach the same level of penetration.

It has taken about 10 years for broadband to reach 50 percent of homes. We can argue about the price of broadband, the definition of broadband, the quality or terms of service under which broadband can be purchased.

But it continues to surprise me that some observers still think there is some sort of crisis or problem here. Over the last year bandwidths have been leaping, not just incrementally increasing. There's more third generation wireless access, more WiMAX, more Wi-Fi. With a new SpaceWay satellite in orbit, there's much more satellite broadband capacity coming online as well.

And the last time I checked, some 98 percent of U.S. homes had access to at least one wireline broadband provider, and depending on where the location is, one or two satellite providers. Again, depending on location, users have access to one to three broadband mobile networks as well.

Few countries save Japan have prices-per-megabit lower than U.S. consumers do. By all means let us solve problems. But it doesn't do much good to keep trying to "solve" problems that already are in the process of being fixed.

And by any historical standard broadband access is a product being adopted by U.S. consumers at a faster rate than other highly-popular innovations have. In fact, one would be hard pressed to name another popular innovation that has penetrated the market so quickly.

Price Per Megabit: Japan and France Lead

When observers talk about places where broadband access is both fast and affordable, Japan is certain to come up. Maybe they should talk about France. As this chart created by the Wall Street Journal shows, French users can buy broadband at prices per megabit that are quite close to what users in Japan are able to do.

Also, despite all the whining about how far behind the rest of the world the U.S. providers are, it doesn't really appear such sentiments necessarily are based in fact. Over the last year, cable and telephone companies have been boosting capacity while holding prices steady. And that provides a much better "price per megabit" relationship.

Test of Tiered Pricing for Broadband Access

Time Warner Cable is testing usage-based broadband access pricing, according to Broadbandreports.com. The move is hardly surprising. Most Internet service providers report that a fraction of all users, about five percent or so, use over half of all access bandwidth.

The Time Warner test presumably aims to discover how such usage can be monitored by end users themselves, how scalable the process might be, and possibly whether such heavy users will upgrade to higher-usage plans or flee to another provider.

Over time, it seems inevitable that heavier users will find themselves facing universal caps on their usage and the ability to buy plans that support their higher usage levels.

Broadandreports.com says the test will involve new customers in the Beaumont market, not existing customers. Those users will be placed on metered billing plans where overage charges will apply, and provided a web site where they can track their usage and upgrade, if required.

In principle, the approach is akin to how mobile pricing plans now are structured, where users can choose higher usage or lower usage plans for voice and text usage.

One way or the other, as video becomes a bigger part of overall broadband usage, it is inevitable that usage-based plans supplant current "all you can eat" plans. Video is the reason.

Video consumes vastly more bandwidth than Web surfing, email or voice, requiring across the board capacity increases in the network backbone and access networks. That obviously costs money, and those costs will have to be recovered.

Usage-based pricing is coming because it has to.

Broadband costs: Fiber Helps!

Fiber to the home helps, obviously. In the U.S. market, it helps to be a Verizon customer where FiOS is deployed, or to live within the SureWest Communications footprint. Make a note, though: this is actually a megabit per second (Mbps) metric, not a Mbyte metric. Apparently we are dealing with a technologically challenged journalist. The original data from the foundation make clear that we are talking about Mbps, not Mbytes.