Showing posts sorted by date for query U.S. broadband prices too high. Sort by relevance Show all posts
Showing posts sorted by date for query U.S. broadband prices too high. Sort by relevance Show all posts

Saturday, November 11, 2023

The Coming Age of Streaming "Super Bundles"

"Super bundles" are coming in the video streaming business.


If there is anything we can “know” about consumer preferences for buying video content, it is that convenience, price and simplicity are desirable. In either linear or “streaming” eras, consumption therefore always has involved some amount of bundling.


Content was aggregated into broadcast channels; then cable TV channels and now streaming service brands. 


What consumers never have had, in the video format, is a la carte access to individual shows. That has remained a staple for the theatrical exhibition business (movies shown at movie theaters), but the video business always has involved bundling. 


And that means the next era of streaming evolution will involve the creation of “bigger” or “broader” bundles that essentially replicate the value of the older linear format: pay one price, get lots of content, at one place. 


Whether the packing is “channels” or “streaming services,” some form of bundling always is required, as the cost of distribution of single shows or episodes is too difficult a business model, either for suppliers or consumers. Simply, the cost of selling or buying a single episode is too high, at the volumes most consumers will prefer. 


Cost element

Description

Content acquisition

The cost of acquiring the rights to distribute the content. This can be a significant cost, especially for popular content.

Content preparation

The cost of preparing the content for distribution. This includes tasks such as encoding, transcoding, and packaging.

Content delivery

The cost of delivering the content to consumers. This includes the cost of bandwidth, content delivery networks (CDNs), and other infrastructure.

Payment processing

The cost of processing payments from consumers. This includes the cost of credit card fees, fraud prevention, and other services.

Marketing and promotion

The cost of marketing and promoting the content. This can be a significant cost, especially for new or niche content.

Customer support

The cost of providing customer support to consumers. This includes the cost of staffing call centers, providing online support, and handling customer inquiries.


In addition, there are indirect costs:


  • The cost of maintaining and updating the underlying technology infrastructure.

  • The cost of managing and protecting intellectual property rights.

  • The cost of complying with regulations.

  • The cost of managing and resolving disputes with content creators and distributors.


Of course, on-demand distribution costs can be quite different depending on the delivery platform: retail stores renting DVDs or CDs; retail delivery by mail or internet delivery. 


Delivery Method

Direct Costs

Sample Cost (Per Episode or Movie)

Rental in Retail Stores

Manufacturing and duplication of discs, physical distribution to stores, store overhead, inventory management, disc replacement

$2.00 - $5.00

Postal Delivery

Disc manufacturing and duplication, postage costs, packaging materials, return postage or prepaid return envelopes

$3.00 - $6.00

On-demand Delivery (Per Episode)

Content acquisition, content preparation, content delivery infrastructure, payment processing, customer support

$0.50 - $1.50

Streaming Service

Content acquisition, content preparation, content delivery infrastructure, payment processing, customer support, marketing and promotion

$0.20 - $0.50


As a rule, bundled delivery using internet mechanisms offers the lowest overall delivery costs, compared to physical media. 


The point is that full a la carte access to individual titles is  impractical for many reasons. No single firm can afford to amass the full available catalog of created video content. Given the typical amount of video content people watch, 


By age group, people watch somewhere between three hours and 4.5 hours of content daily. 


18-24: 4 hours, 37 minutes

25-34: 3 hours, 54 minutes

35-44: 3 hours, 47 minutes

45-54: 3 hours, 31 minutes

55-64: 3 hours, 10 minutes

65+: 2 hours, 50 minutes


Assume the “typical” item is a 20-minute episode. That implies delivery of between nine and 14 episodes daily. Using a full on-demand model, that implies a cost of at least $3 to $9 daily, or about $90 to $270 per month. 


If you think about the pricing of streaming and on-demand services, it seems clear that consumers will not willingly pay such amounts for full a la carte access, even if it were possible. 


At the moment, declining take rates for linear video suggest that format is not preferred, even at typical costs of between $80 and $100 a month. The ultimate amount of spending for streaming alternatives is still developing, but many households already buy multiple subscriptions. 


The average U.S. household subscribes to 4.2 streaming services, up from 3.4 subscriptions in 2022, according to a 2023 survey by Leichtman Research Group. The survey also found that the average household spends $67 per month on streaming services, up from $55 in 2022.


Obviously, in an a la carte environment (were it possible), consumers would pay more than they presently do to watch video content delivered using the internet, the most-affordable platform. 


All of which explains why full a la carte buying (anything you want, when you want it) never happens. 


Instead, the business terrain centers on amalgamating enough content, at a low-enough monthly price, to satisfy enough customers so the business can survive. So far, most streaming services offering on-demand viewing have prices ranging from $5 to to $15 a month.


Streaming Service

Monthly Price (USD)

Netflix

9.99-19.99

Prime Video

8.99

Apple TV+

4.99

Hulu

7.99-14.99

HBO Max

14.99

Disney+

7.99

Paramount+

4.99-9.99

Peacock

4.99-9.99


Such prices do not seem sustainable, at such levels, financial reports suggest, as only Netflix actually seems to earn profits. 


The full issue is that the older linear TV model also is shrinking at a time when streaming investments are being made, so it actually is a combination of lower revenue and higher costs that are the problem for streaming providers. 


In other words, content producers are losing scale in a business where scale matters. Note especially the loss of advertising revenue for streaming models, compared to linear models. 


Element

Video streaming (%)

Linear video (%)

Revenue



Subscription fees

50-60

10-20

Advertising

20-30

70-80

TVOD (episode sales)

5-10

0

PPV (live event sales)

0-5

0

Merchandising

0-5

0

Cost



Content licensing

30-40

40-50

Production

10-20

0-10

Marketing

10-20

10-20

Technology

10-20

10-20


The point is that cost, convenience and simplicity have always driven the video business towards bundling, and that is unlikely to change in the streaming era of video delivery. 


To prosper, streaming services will have to gain greater scale, and that also means fewer but larger suppliers. It likely also means a reconstitution of the older cable TV bundled model of one flat price for lots of content. 


At first rather informally, then likely later formally, bundles of popular streaming services--”super bundles”--will be offered to consumers, where paying one price gives access to a few or several top services. 


In the early days, this will take the form of a “super bundler” aggregating two or more services into a package, often with other services such as mobile or internet access (home broadband) service. 


It’s coming. Consumer demand and supplier necessity will drive it. 


Wednesday, January 4, 2023

U.S. Home Broadband Actually is Neither Slow Nor Expensive

Critics of U.S. home broadband often claim that service is slow and expensive. Both opinions can be challenged. In fact, U.S. median home broadband speeds were among the fastest in the world in 2021 and climbed in 2022. 

source: Ookla 


“Price” sometimes is a bit more subtle. Though prices have declined in every speed category, some might still argue “prices are too high.”


For example, ana analysis shows that U.S. home broadband prices have fallen since 2016, according to a study by Broadband Now. 


Broadband Now says that the average price for internet in each speed bucket starting in the first quarter of 2016 compared to the fourth quarter of 2021 has fallen:

  • The average price decreased by $8.80 or 14% for 25 – 99 Mbps.

  • The average price decreased by $32.35 or 33% for 100 – 199 Mbps.

  • The average price decreased by $34.39 or 35% for 200 – 499 Mbps.

  • The average price decreased by $59.22 or 42% for 500+ Mbps.


The analysis is subtle because if there is a movement by customers from lower speeds to higher speeds, which clearly is happening, then “prices” might climb, though not for the same products. Customers are choosing to buy higher-priced, higher-performance products, instead of the lower-priced, lower-performance products they used to buy. 


Other studies show the same trend.  


Also, because of inflation, price levels rise over time. So virtually any product can be accused of “costing more” in 2022 than it cost in 1996. 


Some may intuitively feel this cannot be the full story where it comes to digital products, which keep getting better, while prices either stay the same or decline. Such hedonic change applies to  home broadband. 


Hedonic qualIty adjustment is a method used by economists to adjust prices whenever the characteristics of the products included in the consumer price index change because of innovation. Hedonic quality adjustment also is used when older products are improved and become new products. 


That often has been the case for computing products, televisions, consumer electronics and--dare we note--broadband internet access services. 


Hedonically adjusted price indices for broadband internet access in the U.S. market then looks like this:

Graph of PCU5173115173116


source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 

 

Quality improvements also are seen globally. 


Adjusting for currency and living cost differentials, however, broadband access prices globally are remarkably uniform. 


The 2019 average price of a broadband internet access connection--globally--was $72..92, down $0.12 from 2017 levels, according to comparison site Cable. Other comparisons say the average global price for a fixed connection is $67 a month. 


Looking at 95 countries globally with internet access speeds of at least 60 Mbps, U.S. prices were $62.74 a month, with the highest price being $100.42 in the United Arab Emirates and the lowest price being $4.88 in the Ukraine. 


According to comparethemarket.com, the United States is not the most affordable of 50 countries analyzed. On the other hand, the United States ranks fifth among 50 for downstream speeds. 


Another study by Deutsche Bank, looking at cities in a number of countries, with a modest 8 Mbps rate, found  prices ranging between $50 to $52 a month. That still places prices for major U.S. cities such as New York, San Francisco and Boston at the top of the price range for cities studied, but do not seem to be adjusted for purchasing power parity, which attempts to adjust prices based on how much a particular unit of currency buys in each country. 


The other normalization technique used by the International Telecommunications Union is to attempt to normalize by comparing prices to gross national income per person. There are methodological issues when doing so, one can argue. Gross national income is not household income, and per-capita measures might not always be the best way to compare prices, income or other metrics. But at a high level, measuring prices as a percentage of income provides some relative measure of affordability. 


Looking at internet access prices using the PPP method, developed nation prices are around $35 to $40 a month. In absolute terms, developed nation prices are less than $30 a month. 


According to an analysis by NetCredit, which shows U.S. consumers spending about 0.16 percent of income on internet access, “making it the most affordable broadband in North America,” says NetCredit.


Looking at internet access prices using the purchasing power parity method, developed nation prices are around $35 to $40 a month. In absolute terms, developed nation prices are less than $30 a month.  


Methodology always matters. The average U.S. home broadband service  costs about $64 a month. In fact, U.S. home broadband inflation-adjusted costs have declined since the mid-1990s, according to an analysis  of U.S. Consumer Price Index data. 


U.S. home broadband is neither “slow” nor “expensive.”


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