Wednesday, December 1, 2010

The Top 5 Web Trends of 2010 and 2011

The mobile Web, the Internet of Things, location-based social networks, the real-time Web and structured data are the top five Web trends of 2010, as assessed by ReadWriteWeb, and are likely to remain key in 2011 as well.

Mobility was a top trend in 2010 and will continue to be a top trend in 2011, ReadWriteWeb says. As Android growth, tablets, the iPad and the launch of Windows Phone 7 have shown, mobility was, and will remain, a key trend to watch in 2011.

Internet of Things, or machine-to-machine communications, also will be key, as will location-based social networks.

The real-time Web, principally exemplified by the growth of Web-delivered video, also will continue to be a top trend.

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Chrome usage jumps over 9% from October to November 2010

Between October and November, Internet Explorer dropped a full percentage point in terms of global installed base, a drop bigger than the last four months.

Firefox, meanwhile, fell 0.07 percentage points. Chrome gained 0.78 percentage points (one of its biggest gains to date), making it the biggest winner of the month.

Safari was up 0.22 percentage points and Opera dipped 0.08 percentage points.

No Matter What the ITU Says, There is 4G

Some will argue that because the new International Telecommunications Union has defined "fourth generation" networks they way they have, there actually is "no such thing" as an actual "4G" network in operation anywhere in the world, right now.

That's actually not correct. The WiMAX and Long Term Evolution networks now operated in the United States and elsewhere use different air interfaces, standards and protocols from "3G." And since the difference between first generation analog, 2G, 3G and now 4G networks is in fact that they represent entirely-new technology generations, it still is accurate to refer to LTE and WiMAX networks, as they now exist, as 4G. They aren't "fully compliant" with the formal ITU definitions, but easily would meet even an industry insider's definition of a "new network, running different protocols, standards and air interfaces," than the older generation of networks.

End users won't care even that much, as in many cases HSPA+ will offer faster downloads and more bandwidth than some 4G networks. Let the purists quibble. Lots of real revenue is going to be made, and lots of new applications and use cases created, by 4G networks that fall short of the full ITU definition. At this point, the business models and businesses do not have to wait for formal compliance. Real-world 4G networks will fashion real business models and earn lots of real revenue without complying fully with the full standards.

Oddly Enough, Rural-Urban Digital Divide is About to Get Worse

In just about any country, of any size, there typically is a gap between the typical speeds a city dweller can buy, compared to what a rural resident can buy, based almost entirely on the fact that rural infrastructure is much more expensive than urban infrastructure, for any number of reasons.

But the rural-urban broadband access "divide," ironically, is going to get worse as fixed-line providers and wireless providers roll out their faster-speed networks. The reason is logical enough: the places those faster cable, telco and wireless 4G and HSPA+ networks are being introduced are largely metro markets.

As Verizon, Comcast, Time Warner, Cox Communications and other cable opertors keep adding areas where it is possible to buy 50 Mbps access as a standard consumer service, and as wireless operators light faster 4G and HSPA+ networks, rural networks will find it virtually impossible to keep up.

So get ready for another round of complaints about the gap between rural and urban broadband networks. In fact, get ready for complaints that matters have gotten worse over the last year. That will be the unavoidable consequence of faster networks being activated in urban areas, both fixed line and wireless.

Verizon to Switch on 4G Network

Verizon Wireless will turn on its 4G wireless network Dec. 5, 2010 in 38 U.S. cities, though the new network will not support smartphones until the first half of 2011. Verizon's 4G network is not the first of Verizon's networks to support data communications, or even mobile broadband, but it will be the first that launches without any voice devices, as other 4G networks earlier have done.

There are a couple reasons for those choices. First, voice standards for 4G are less complete than you might think. Also, the primary advantage 4G offers over 3G is bandwidth for Internet access applications, not voice. Also, there is a "chicken and egg" problem." Device manufacturers have incentive to create hot new devices when there is an opportunity to sell lots of units.

But 4G uptake will be relatively slow at first, so handset development also will lag.

The new Verizon 4G network will support a pair of USB modems from LG and Pantech, making Verizon's 4G network initially a complement or substitute for fixed-line broadband connections or 3G dongles.

The devices will cost $99 with a $50 rebate and two-year data contract. Service costs $50 per month for 5 gigabytes of data, or $80 per month for 10 gigabytes.

Both modems are backwards compatible with Verizon's 3G network, so if users roam outside a 4G area, the connection will default to 3G. The deals immediately make 4G service a better deal than 3G service, which costs $60 a month, with a 5-Gbyte usage cap.

Netflix to Stream FilmDistrict Films Earlier than Premium Cable Gets Them

Netflix and FilmDistrict have signed a deal allowing first-run, theatrically-released films distributed by FilmDistrict to be streamed by Netflix in the 'pay TV window' a few months after their release on DVD.

Under the deal, major motion pictures that traditionally would have been licensed to premium cable channels will flow instead from FilmDistrict to Netflix for streaming to its members, beginning in 2011.

The deal is another example of gradually-evolving distribution channels in the movie and TV business, with the key trend being the loosening of online viewing restrictions.

CounterPath Unveils Hosted "One Number" Service Supporting Text Messaging Using Landlines

CounterPath Corporation says the next release of the "Messaging Convergence Gateway (MCG) 2.0," a hosted solution, will give wireline operators the ability to extend their VoIP and messaging services over the top of mobile networks.

Paradoxically, though over-the-top voice services have mostly cannibalized fixed-line voice services, over-the-top is one way fixed-line services can be made more relevant in a world where much voice activity (not to mention text messaging and instant messaging) occurs on mobile devices.

CounterPath says the solution will be the industry’s first platform to provide single-number reachability for voice, Instant Messaging, and SMS across an operator’s existing wireline VoIP network and on feature phones, smartphones or tablets from any mobile operator.

CounterPath’s wireline mobility services solution will give Internet Service Providers and wireline operators a cost-effective way to provide SMS services to their VoIP subscribers. The gateway also allows fixed-line service providers to provide "one number" services for voice or text messaging, whether a user is on the fixed or mobile networks.

In addition to handling inbound communications, wireline mobility services lets users initiate conversations with their contacts using their new “single” number. Users can initiate voice, Instant Messaging, and SMS conversations using their feature phone, smartphone or SIP-enabled applications on their PC.

Mobile workers and other business users now can use their main number to receive and send SMS messages, making them more accessible to customers – such as younger demographics – who prefer texting over e-mailing or calling.

When consumers are using their smartphone or PC at home or in a Wi-Fi hotspot, calls to their wireline VoIP number ring their VoIP client. By doing so, users preserve monthly buckets of minutes and SMS messages.

Wireline mobility services works with any mobile phone on any wireless network. No client software is required on the handset, allowing it to work even with entry-level feature phones and any mobile operating system.

ITSPs and wireline VoIP operators can quickly and cost-effectively add wireline mobility services without replacing existing network equipment. Operators also can roll out service quickly because they don’t need to first establish a relationship with a mobile operator.

Symbian Devices Lead Mobile Web Usage in Africa, Asia, Latin America

Symbian always has been more popular elsewhere than in the United States. That remains true for related metrics such as share of mobile Web activity as well, according to Statcounter.

Six iPhones Sold for Every Nokia N8

A Morgan Stanley survey of 150 handset retailers in five countries in Europe shows N8 sell-through of one for every six Apple (AAPL) iPhones that are sold, notes Morgan Stanley analyst Patrick Standaert.

Surprisingly, perhaps, Standaert thinks that is a "win" for Nokia. That is more a measure of low expectations for Nokia than anything else, one might argue.

Twitter's Major Publishing Dilemma

Twitter has the potential to be much more, and everyone there knows it. It has millions of dedicated users, but it also has tens of millions who can't quite figure out what the value is.

The problem, of course, is that while Twitter makes it nearly effortless for folks to publish their own thoughts, it has done far too little to help those same folks glean value from the thoughts of others.

At its core, publishing is about determining signal from noise. And that might be among Twitter's greatest opportunities. Traditionally, publishing has been able aggregating the "good stuff," the "stuff you need to know," from all the rest. Even online, even in the context of social networking, that mission remains. Twitter already is part of the "media" ecosystem. The issue is whether it can become a bigger part of that ecosystem.

U.S. Smartphone Battle Heats Up:Apple and Android are "Most Desired" Platforms

When mobile users who planned to upgrade to a smartphone in the next year were asked about their next phone, Apple’s iOS and Android were tied for “most desired” operating system.

Click image for a larger view.

Among users planning to get a new smartphone, current smartphone owners showed a preference for the Apple iPhone (35 percent), while 28 percent of both smartphone and featurephone planned smartphone upgraders indicated they wanted a device with an Android operating system as their next mobile phone.

Featurephone owners planning to get a smartphone are less likely to have made up their mind about the OS they will choose: 25 percent were “not sure” what their next desired OS might be compared to 13 percent of smartphone owners. Those over 55 were markedly less certain than younger mobile users, with 27.8 saying they weren’t sure what kind of device they wanted next, compared to 12.2 percent of those 18 to 24.

Apple’s iPhone and devices with the Android operating system were the “most desired” among likely smartphone upgraders, with Apple showing a slight lead among those age 55 , 18 to 24, and 25 to 34.

U.S. Smartphone Battle Heats Up: Which is the “Most Desired” Operating System? | Nielsen Wire

According to October 2010 data from The Nielsen Company, 29.7 percent of U.S. mobile subscribers now own smartphones that run full operating systems.

The most popular smartphones are the Apple iPhone and RIM Blackberry, which are caught in a statistical dead heat with 27 percent of smartphone market share in the U.S. Twenty-two percent of smartphone owners have devices with the Android operating system.

F.C.C. Chairman Has Plan to Regulate Internet Broadband Providers

"Thwarted by the courts, by lawmakers on Capitol Hill and by some of his fellow commissioners, the Federal Communications Commission chairman will try again on Wednesday to devise a new strategy for regulating broadband Internet service providers," the New York Times reports.

But think about the statement: "Thwarted by the courts, the Congress and even fellow FCC commissioners." The FCC's authority is delegated to it by the Congress, which has not expressly done so. The courts supposedly only "interpret" the laws passed by Congress, and do not "make" law. Many would say the courts overstep their bounds, but for the moment just consider that the courts have ruled that the FCC has no authority to regulate broadband access.

Beyond those issues, which one might argue represent an unconstitutional overstepping of delegated authority, 37 Senators and 171 members of the House of Representatives already have sent the FCC a letter saying that the decision rests with Congress, not the agency.

Some would argue the key issue here is not disagreement over the specific proposals; it is that the FCC has no authority to act, administratively, to make law that is the province of the Congress.

Vodafone and T-Mobile Germany Plans:Alot Like Clearwire

In some ways, Vodafone and T-Mobile are planning on attacking the 4G consumer in much the same way Clearwire did in the United States. Both firms will start in rural areas before tackling metro markets, and both are focusing on dongle sales for connecting PCs, rather than voice services.

Vodafone plans to offer a Samsung dongle with tiered monthly plans costing between 42.50 and 72.50 EUR. The top rate provides users with up to 30 GBytes of data and peak download speeds of up to 50 Mbps. That’s starting with the small city of Rammenau, east of Dresden, where Vodafone hopes to get subscribers who still can’t get fast broadband access at home.

Moreover, the plan is to initially cover several hundred towns in rural areas and then expand the network to 1,500 locations by next spring.

T-Mobile has a similar strategy. It is aiming at rural users first and then expand to cities. The T-Mobile offer will be called Call & Surf via Funk and will start selling from next April. For 39.95 EUR per month, users get a fixed-line access alongside the LTE connection.

In all three cases--Clearwire, Vodafone and T-Mobile--4G is seen as a product competing with fixed-line broadband for PCs, not a product competing for mobile or smartphone customers.

Shai Berger Pitches Fonolo to Investors

http://www.shaiberger.com/2010/11/video-pitching-fonolo-on-the-pitch/ You have less than 10 minutes to convince three potential investment groups your idea is among those they should fund. This is how Shai Berger, Fonolo founder, handles the task.

Yes, Follow the Data. Even if it Does Not Fit Your Agenda

When people argue we need to “follow the science” that should be true in all cases, not only in cases where the data fits one’s political pr...