In the worst case scenario those figures change to 6.4 percent smartphone market share and 53 percent of the stocks value disappears. If Nokia manages to do everything perfectly, which it almost never does, then the best case scenario is 15 percent smartphone market share and share price goes up 54 percent.
Wednesday, February 23, 2011
Nokia will be Volatile, Analyst Says
RBS analyst Didier Scemama believes Nokia's stock price will drop to 5.80 Euros. In a “base case” scenario the Nokia of 2013 will have 11 percent of the smartphone market and the stock price will drop by 15 percent, says RBS analyst Didier Scemama.
Gary Kim was cited as a global "Power Mobile Influencer" by Forbes, ranked second in the world for coverage of the mobile business, and as a "top 10" telecom analyst. He is a member of Mensa, the international organization for people with IQs in the top two percent.
Mobile Payments Price War
New moves by mobile payments provider Square suggest competition is heating up in the small business mobile payments space.
Intuit's GoPayment system charges 2.7 percent, plus 15 cents per transaction, while Square now charges 2.75 percent, but no per-transaction fee.
The moves suggest that small business mobile payments now has become a serious business, with serious competition for customers.
Gary Kim was cited as a global "Power Mobile Influencer" by Forbes, ranked second in the world for coverage of the mobile business, and as a "top 10" telecom analyst. He is a member of Mensa, the international organization for people with IQs in the top two percent.
What is a Book?
Average physical book prices are going up, and average units sold are going down, at the same time that ebook reader ownership also is growing.
Having seen this before, just about all of us would conclude that a shift to new formats, business models and delivery channels is inevitable.
Gary Kim was cited as a global "Power Mobile Influencer" by Forbes, ranked second in the world for coverage of the mobile business, and as a "top 10" telecom analyst. He is a member of Mensa, the international organization for people with IQs in the top two percent.
40% of Facebook Users are Mobile
According to Facebook over 200 million of its active users now access the network from mobile devices, representing 40 percent of its 500 million total membership. Mobile users are also twice as active on Facebook than non-mobile users, the company says.
Gary Kim was cited as a global "Power Mobile Influencer" by Forbes, ranked second in the world for coverage of the mobile business, and as a "top 10" telecom analyst. He is a member of Mensa, the international organization for people with IQs in the top two percent.
Mobile Music Revenues $5.5 billion in 2015
Music consumed on mobile handsets will generate $5.5 billion annually in 2015, representing growth of $3.1 billion from 2010 levels, according to Juniper Research.
Gary Kim was cited as a global "Power Mobile Influencer" by Forbes, ranked second in the world for coverage of the mobile business, and as a "top 10" telecom analyst. He is a member of Mensa, the international organization for people with IQs in the top two percent.
Tuesday, February 22, 2011
Still Some Skepticism About LTE, In Some Quarters
Apparently some in Europe simply don't believe that fourth-generation LTE networks actually are going to be in commercial service this year, in the United States. And that isn't to argue about whether LTE-Advanced is that "only" LTE. Apparently there is some skepticism about the earlier, commercial versions as well.
Apparently there is some merit to being able to buy it, at a retail store, and use it in many cities, as an aid to belief.
Gary Kim was cited as a global "Power Mobile Influencer" by Forbes, ranked second in the world for coverage of the mobile business, and as a "top 10" telecom analyst. He is a member of Mensa, the international organization for people with IQs in the top two percent.
Consumer, Business PC Markets Divergomg?
The latest round of earnings reports might suggest a divergence of consumer and business PC trends. Hewlett-Packard's consumer PC revenue was down 11 percent from last year for the quarter ended January 31, 2011. In contrast, sales of PCs to businesses were up 12 percent.
Dell consumer revenue was down eight percent from last year in the last quarter of 2010. The company appears have done adequately selling to large enterprises and businesses.
Microsoft: revenue from sales of Windows on new PCs was up three percent from last year in the last quarter of 2010. Microsoft says the business PC refresh cycle -- not consumers -- is driving growth in Windows.
Dell consumer revenue was down eight percent from last year in the last quarter of 2010. The company appears have done adequately selling to large enterprises and businesses.
Microsoft: revenue from sales of Windows on new PCs was up three percent from last year in the last quarter of 2010. Microsoft says the business PC refresh cycle -- not consumers -- is driving growth in Windows.
One might conclude that consumers are flocking to tablets, while businesses are continuing to hold up Windows PC sales.
Apple sold 7.3 million iPads last quarter, while Mac unit sales were up 23 percent in the last quarter of 2010. Is it a permanent trend?
Apple sold 7.3 million iPads last quarter, while Mac unit sales were up 23 percent in the last quarter of 2010. Is it a permanent trend?
Gary Kim was cited as a global "Power Mobile Influencer" by Forbes, ranked second in the world for coverage of the mobile business, and as a "top 10" telecom analyst. He is a member of Mensa, the international organization for people with IQs in the top two percent.
Sprint Selects BilltoMobile to Enable Subscribers to Charge Online Purchases to Their Wireless Bill - Barrons.com
BilltoMobile has reached a deal allowing Sprint customers to charge online purchases directly to their Sprint bill. Once implementation is complete in the coming months, merchants and payment resellers using BilltoMobile's mobile payment service will be able to offer this payment option to Sprint customers.
BilltoMobile already had signed deals with AT&T and Verizon Wireless, giving the firm access to about 85 percent of U.S. mobile subscribers.
Gary Kim was cited as a global "Power Mobile Influencer" by Forbes, ranked second in the world for coverage of the mobile business, and as a "top 10" telecom analyst. He is a member of Mensa, the international organization for people with IQs in the top two percent.
Facebook Replacing Mobile Communications?
Mobile and fixed service providers face all sorts of competitors, most of them indirect. Email and instant messaging, for example, cannibalize some amount of voice traffic, as do over-the-top services such as Skype. In other cases, over-the-top applications simply "suck up all the oxygen in the room" by usurping the revenue created by those apps. In past years, telcos might have preferred to create the apps and keep the revenue themselves.
Some even think Facebook is in competition with mobile operators. Facebook has an integration deal with Skype for voice communications and in November 2010 unveiled an email offering.
In the Philippines, for example, the National Telecommunications Commission reports declining text message volumes as more people communicate with each other through the web and web-based apps.
The agency said that in 2009, the average Filipino user sent about 30 text messages per day, or a total of well over two billion messages. If the volume of those messages declines, there will be revenue implications for mobile service providers.
In the Philippines, for example, the National Telecommunications Commission reports declining text message volumes as more people communicate with each other through the web and web-based apps.
The agency said that in 2009, the average Filipino user sent about 30 text messages per day, or a total of well over two billion messages. If the volume of those messages declines, there will be revenue implications for mobile service providers.
Gary Kim was cited as a global "Power Mobile Influencer" by Forbes, ranked second in the world for coverage of the mobile business, and as a "top 10" telecom analyst. He is a member of Mensa, the international organization for people with IQs in the top two percent.
Square Drops 15-Cent Fee for Credit Card Purchases
Square says it is dropping the 15-cent transaction fee when merchants use its mobile payment system, and instead will take what is an interchange fee of of 2.75 percent of the gross sales amount.
The change is helpful for many of the small merchants who use Square, namely high-volume, low amount transactions.
The change is helpful for many of the small merchants who use Square, namely high-volume, low amount transactions.
Gary Kim was cited as a global "Power Mobile Influencer" by Forbes, ranked second in the world for coverage of the mobile business, and as a "top 10" telecom analyst. He is a member of Mensa, the international organization for people with IQs in the top two percent.
U.S. Cable Operators Will Lose 6 Million Households by 2015
U.S. cable operators will lose six million more customers by 2015, predicts Jonathan Doran, Ovum analyst, down from 60 million households in 2010 to 54 million households.
Doran estimates that U.S. households subscribing to cable dropped by four million between 2007 and 2010. The losses will come from a combination of share losses to satellite and telco competitors, plus some amount of replacement by online services.
Gary Kim was cited as a global "Power Mobile Influencer" by Forbes, ranked second in the world for coverage of the mobile business, and as a "top 10" telecom analyst. He is a member of Mensa, the international organization for people with IQs in the top two percent.
Dwolla Promises Retailers Lower Transaction Costs
Much of the original premise behind mobile payments was that it could lead to lower merchant transaction fees. That has not always proven to be the case, but Dwolla claims it does deliver on the promise.
Gary Kim was cited as a global "Power Mobile Influencer" by Forbes, ranked second in the world for coverage of the mobile business, and as a "top 10" telecom analyst. He is a member of Mensa, the international organization for people with IQs in the top two percent.
Augmented Reality for Navigation
The downside for video-assisted navigation services used by auto drivers is that they might be tempted to look at the screen, instead of keeping their eyes on the road. This is useful, but potentially also a source of distracted driving danger.
Gary Kim was cited as a global "Power Mobile Influencer" by Forbes, ranked second in the world for coverage of the mobile business, and as a "top 10" telecom analyst. He is a member of Mensa, the international organization for people with IQs in the top two percent.
Mobile Payments Boosts Ecosystem Value
Mobile and fixed service providers these days continually face the challenge of adapting their services in ways that preserve or create significant roles in the Internet, application, broadband access and voice ecosystems. In that regard, mobile payments and banking are significant precisely because those sorts of services are amenable to leverage.
In other words, service providers have other assets they can bring to bear that offer a substantial role in the creation of value, and presumably, therefore, a substantial role in revenues and profit within the ecosystem. It isn't that mobile banking and mobile payments cannot be offered "over the top," as virtually all other applications now can. It is rather that mobile service providers have existing assets to leverage, typically described as including active billing relationships with hundreds of millions of customers.
“Google’s massive, but Google does not have a billing relationship with 99 percent of its customers,” Deutsche Telekom Chief Technology and Innovation Officer Ed Kozel said in an interview last week. “That’s our opportunity.”
Also, some ways of conducting mobile banking and payments make use of text messaging, a service mobile operators largely control. In principle, mobile service providers also have billing systems set up to handle micro-payments, a potentially significant part of the overall mobile payments business.
Tablets also represent an opportunity. Online or virtual goods payments are growing in volume, and tablets should provide a richer environment for that sort of activity, especially as tablets develop as significant platforms for gaming and content consumption.
By some estimates, the retail mobile payments business could account for a third of the $1.13 trillion global market in mobile transactions by 2014, according to IE Market Research. Note the obverse, that other transactions will represent two thirds of mobile activity.
By some estimates, the retail mobile payments business could account for a third of the $1.13 trillion global market in mobile transactions by 2014, according to IE Market Research. Note the obverse, that other transactions will represent two thirds of mobile activity.
Gary Kim was cited as a global "Power Mobile Influencer" by Forbes, ranked second in the world for coverage of the mobile business, and as a "top 10" telecom analyst. He is a member of Mensa, the international organization for people with IQs in the top two percent.
Amazon Streaming Video Service Has an Advantage
In business, it typically is advantageous when one competitor can afford to merchandise (give away) something of value that other competitors charge for.
To be sure, Amazon's service currently offers unlimited, commercial-free and instant streaming of 5,000 movies and TV shows, where Netflix offers something on the order of 20,000 items. The Netflix streaming-only subscription costs $7.99 per month, which adds up to about $96 a year.
Amazon, for example, now offers an instant video streaming service for its U.S. "Amazon Prime" customers. Amazon Prime is its $79 a year service which includes free two-day shipping for Amazon customers. The deal is that Amazon Prime members get access to Amazon's streaming service for no additional cost.
To be sure, Amazon's service currently offers unlimited, commercial-free and instant streaming of 5,000 movies and TV shows, where Netflix offers something on the order of 20,000 items. The Netflix streaming-only subscription costs $7.99 per month, which adds up to about $96 a year.
The point is that Amazon has another way to monetize its service, compared to Netflix.
Gary Kim was cited as a global "Power Mobile Influencer" by Forbes, ranked second in the world for coverage of the mobile business, and as a "top 10" telecom analyst. He is a member of Mensa, the international organization for people with IQs in the top two percent.
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