Will AI Propel New "Cognitive Elites?"

Though we might speculate about artificial intelligence impact on social stratification (the notion that “cognitive elites” could form), it might be more accurate to argue that cognitive abilities will still operate as a social mobility enabler into the upper middle class, much as they do now, but not so much a platform for new entrants into the “upper class” (top couple of percent of families and persons). 

Then there is the matter of “celebrity wealth,” which arguably does not confer membership in the “one-percent” ranks of the upper class, which is based on more than mere wealth. In other words, we might argue that wealth alone does not equate to full membership in the upper class. 

Such mobility across class categories will still exist, but the propelling forces might not necessarily be primarily based on cognitive abilities and AI skills. 

Driver	Estimated Importance (Variance Explained)	Key Evidence/Notes
Inherited Wealth/Status	High (40-50%)	Intergenerational transmission; 50% income inheritance; dominates top 1%.
Cognitive Skills	Medium (20-30%)	Strong for education/occupation but plateaus at elites
Post-Graduate Degrees	Medium-High (25-35%)	Gatekeeper for upper middle class
Occupation/Power	Medium (20-25%)	Tied to education; gig economy erodes middle class.
Race/Gender	High (overlaps with others, adds 10-20%)	Amplifies gaps

So claims of a "new" meritocracy driven by cognitive abilities and advanced degrees must be taken in context. Such factors are significant but often secondary to inherited privileges, particularly at the upper echelons.

That does not imply that social mobility into the upper middle class is unaffected. Indeed, cognitive abilities, as “measured” by earning of post-graduate degrees, will remain a key way people experience social mobility into the upper middle class. 

But it arguably overstates the importance of AI skills in creating a new meritocracy. We’ll keep the old one, in all likelihood. That still is important for social mobility into the upper reaches of the middle class.