"There's Plenty of Spectrum," Analysts Claim

Squatting is the main problem with spectrum, not a looming shortage, say a pair of analysts at Citigroup. One can disagree with the analysis, as the researchers also make some claims that are a bit silly. 


“Too much spectrum is controlled by companies that are not planning on rolling out services or face business and financial challenges,” wrote Jason Bazinet and Michael Rollins. “We do not believe the U.S. faces a spectrum shortage.”


Of course, by that assertion, they mean that spectrum now being used by 2G and 3G networks that would be more efficient if converted to 4G networks. That's true, and also silly. Users on existing networks are paying for service. That spectrum cannot be converted to other uses until those customers stop using 2G and 3G and migrate to 4G. But that process is just beginning.


Also, much of the fallow currently licensed spectrum the analysts cite is held by Clearwire, which is having trouble getting customers for the spectrum it has activated, and which is still building its network. The so-called unused spectrum is unused for reason: customers cannot be found, yet. 

The Federal Communications Commission is using the specter of a looming shortage to push through the redesignation of 120 MHz of broadcast spectrum for wireless broadband, the analysts say.  Even so, plenty of spectrum remains undeveloped, Bazinet and Rollins said. Spectrum Control is Constraining Supply

“Today, U.S. carriers have 538 MHz of spectrum, and an additional 300 MHz of additional spectrum waiting in the wings. But only 192 MHz is in use today,” they said.

A majority of that spectrum is devoted to legacy service not likely to deliver more than 1 Mbps during usage peaks, compared to 5 Mbps for 4G, the latest data network technology. Bazinet and Rollins said if the full 538 MHz was converted to 4G, it could support 5 Mbps at 10 percent simultaneous usage. They noted, however, that the larger carriers couldn’t just sweep in with 4G because their networks are so occupied by legacy users. Study says plenty of spectrum

So why bother making the claims? 

Google+ Hits 50 Million Users?

Yesterday (give or take a few days) Google+ likely crossed the 50 million user mark. And since being opened to the general public (over age 18) last week, Google+ has been growing by at least four percent per day, meaning that around two million new users have been signing up each day.

the methodology

In U.S., New Smart Phone Buyers Increasingly Choose Android

Some 43 percent of all U.S. smart phone owners have an Android device. But if you ask only those who got a new smartphone in the past three months what kind of phone they chose, more than half (56 percent) told Nielsen they picked an Android device.

The preferences of these so-called “recent acquirers” are important as they are often a leading indicator of where the market is going.

Apple iOS remains popular in second place with 28 percent of all smartphone users, and the same percentage among those who recently got a new device.

In U.S. Market, New Smartphone Buyers Choose Android

Broadband Speeds Around the World

The latest data from Pando Networks suggests the "average" U.S. broadband speed, as experienced by  consumers, is only about 616 kbps. That's the actual "average" of user-experienced throughput, not headline speeds, and does vary significantly from location to location. Separate test by Ookla cited by the Federal Communications Commission show widely varying speeds in different cities, but running generally from 8 Mbps to 12 Mbps in 2010. Ookla tests

Recall the Technology Futures forecast that 40 percent of U.S. households would be buying services of about 6 Mbps, with 20 percent buying 24 Mbps and 20 percent buying services of about 1.5 Mbps. Average them all together and you wind up somewhere between 6 Mbps and 12 Mbps.

Pando Networks broadband speed survey

 

T-Mobile USA says 75 percent of 2011 were Smart Phones, 90% were Androids

T-Mobile's CMO Cole Brodman says over 75 percent of his company's phones sold in 2011 were smart phones, with 90 percent of those powered by Google's Android.

90 percent of T-Mobile USA 2011 smart phone sales were Android

Alcatel Lucent Talks About Mobile and its Business

Not every supplier of network infrastructure has to have a "mobile" orientation or solutions. To the extent that all traffic, no matter how the access is handled, has to flow quickly back into the network backbone, core infrastructure is relatively unaffected by the growing importance of mobile services.

But many firms have to start having such answers, especially when they plan in the access network. Here's some of what Alcatel-Lucent says.

Telstra LTE goes national in Australia, Articles | Mobile Business Briefing

Australian operator Telstra has launched the country’s first 4G Long Term Evolution networks in more than 30 regional and metropolitan areas.

The carrier said users in areas covered by the network can expect download speeds ranging between 2 Mbps and 40 Mbps, depending on distance from base stations and local conditions. This is 10 times faster than speeds claimed by Australian operators for 3G, according to Telstra.

Upload speeds should range between 1 Mbps and 10 Mbps, a three-fold speed increase compared to existing mobile broadband.

Some are going to argue that the LTE network will displace the need for optical fixed line connections. Undoubtedly, for some users this will be the case. There will be locations where a high-speed optical connection is not available. There will be some users so mobile that LTE will work. As video and other bandwidth-intensive applications become more popular, though, mobile networks will show their weaknesses, compared to fixed networks.

But there is one point we also should note. Telstra was quite intent on holding out for the right to light up its 4G network in return for agreeing to divest its fixed network. Simply, Telstra has bet its future on wireless, not fixed line services.

Telstra LTE goes national in Australia

Dish Network in Line to Get Hulu?

Hulu has not announced any decision on whether it will sell, or to whom it might sell. There are reports Dish Network was the highest bidder, coming in around $1.9 billion, topping both Amazon and Yahoo. Google bid much more, something in the range of $4 billion, but Google wanted special conditions. Google wanted more content for a longer period of time, and perhaps other concessions as well. Highest Bid For Hulu

But the bidders all figured out pretty quickly that the TV companies who own Hulu now want to phase out free ad-supported content completely. So as soon as the current set of Hulu contracts expire in a couple of years, it would be back to the negotiating table. In other words, aside from buying the brand, and some back office technology, the new owners would not be acquiring the existing set of content offerings, which is the whole point.

In April 2011 Jason Kilar, Hulu CEO noted that the company was on pace to approach half a billion dollars in revenue in 2011. In the first quarter, Hulu revenue grew approximately 90 percent over the first quarter of 2010. (Hulu did $263 million in revenue for all of 2010).

The content community will earn approximately $300 million through Hulu over the course of 2011. Hulu served approximately 50 percent more advertisers in the first quarter of 2011 than in the first quarter of 2010. Hulu revenue growth

Any new buyer would have to commit additional funds to get continued access to the content underlying that growth, though. 

Is Reed Hastings a Highly Unusual Business Leader?

Former Netflix co-founder says Reed Hastings is an extraordinarily bold leader, willing to risk the ire of millions of his customers to position the company for its future business, not its current business, says Marc Randolph, co-founder of Netflix. Essentially, the argument is that Hastings will once again sacrifice most of the company's current business to set the foundation for the next business.

What is unusual is the willingness to risk damage to the great bulk of its current revenue.

Randolph says the company had to make a similar decision earlier in the company's history, shutting down the DVD sale business at a time when it provided 95 percent of total revenue, to focus on the longer-term opportunity, which was rental, not sale.

"I would guess that 95 percent of our revenues were coming from the sales of DVDs," Randolph says. "Although this did pay some bills, it was obvious to us that this was not a sustainable business."

"It was inevitable that at some point in the near future we would have Amazon entering the DVD business," he said. "And then Walmart, all of which would have crushed our margins and slowly but surely driven us out of business."

Did Netflix screw up? I don’t think so.

Is Consumer Sentiment Now a Leading Indicator?

Consumer sentiment classically lags trends in the real economy. But a new survey by Ipsos of consumer sentiment around the world might suggest our rules are wrong at the moment. There is a reasonable argument that consumer sentiment at the moment is signaling another recession, in advance of the event. http://www.ipsos-na.com/download/pr.aspx?id=10992


According to a new report by Ipsos, consumer assessment of the current state of their country's economy for a total global perspective, looks "as if the world took a step backwards by five months." 


The global aggregate national economic sentiment dropped two points this month to 38 percent. The downward movement comes directly after a period of relative consistency for the global average. This measure takes us back to March 2011 and is on par with January 2010, says the report. 


All three metrics measured monthly: assessments of their current national economy (-2 points to 38 percent), current local economy (-2 pts to 29 percent) and future outlook (-1 pt to 24 percent), reflect this drop. And, the future outlook is in a continuous downward trend: from 31% positive outlook in March 2010 to 24% now.


While Europe continues to weigh down the global average, though its downward movement in this wave is only one point across the board. It's the Middle East and Africa as a region that shows the greatest downward shifts.


Some economists and observers have been warning that U.S. pundits and consumers could literally "talk us back into a recession," as a self-fulfilling prophecy would occur. All the talk of another recession would lead to consumers further restricting their spending, which then would cause the next recession.


If the Ipsos data is matched by consumer behavior, that might already have begun to happen. The novel aspect would be if consumer sentiment this time actually was a leading indicator, not a lagging indicator, as traditional economics suggests is the case. It's just one more sign that our normal rules of thumb appear not to be working. 

Was Einstein Wrong?

Einstein's famous equation E=MC2 is among the fundamental aspects of modern physics that would have to be revised if it turns out other scientists can replicate the recent finding of a sub-atomic particle that travels faster than the speed of light. But if C is off, it means that all nuclear physics has to be recalibrated, says scientist Michio Kaku, theoretical physics professor at City College of New York.

Modern physics is based on two theories, relativity and the quantum theory, so half of modern physics would have to be replaced by a new theory.

One almost hesitates to mention it, but a similar spirit of strict adherence to the limits of all scientific theories applies elsewhere. "Scientific" claims not based strictly on the limits of experimental evidence are matters of dogma, not science.

Dramatic "climate change" has happened often in Earth's geologic history, and only recently would it even have been possible for human activity to affect, much less cause it. Critical skepticism about the amount of human-caused climate change is not non-scientific or anti-scientific, but a recognition that we do not have clear or ample data to measure changes occurring over geologic time.

Similarly, one can accept random evidence of genetic mutation, the geologic age of the Earth and many other biological occurrences as compatible with science. But one might question the completeness of the theory that one can explain the evolution of all life on the planet, occurring only by random processes. That is not anti-scientific or non-scientific. It is only skepticism about a theory that claims complete explanations on partial evidence.

It remains to be seen whether other independent tests can confirm the CERN findings. But if the findings are confirmed, we will have a clear example of the fact that "science" is bounded by those claims which are confirmed by repeatable experimental evidence. Where experimentation is not possible, we ought to treat our theories as that: theories. When new evidence doesn't fit our theories, we must change our theories.

Mobile Broadband in Kenya

Though voice remains a key revenue driver in developing regions, mobile broadband won't be long in becoming the focus of revenue growth there, as it is becoming the key factor in developed regions.

Mobile broadband Kenya

Lower ARPU, Not Churn, is Big Subscription TV Issue

With 60 percent of 18 to 34 year-olds now regularly watching movies and TV shows online, are viewers abandoning subscription TV services? Not quite yet, according to Altman Vilandrie & Company and Research Now, conducted with 1000 consumers in July 2011.

Only three percent to four percent of consumers have “cut the cord,” cancelling their subscription service because online video meets their needs. What is happening is that subscribers are spending less on their services than they used to.

Twenty percent of consumers now say they are cord shavers, spending less on cable TV because of the convenience of online video. up from 15 percent only a year ago. Nearly 30 percent of those under 35 also say they are cord shavers. They are watching content on mobile devices more often and, on the whole, value live programming (sports, news, etc.) less

Almost 40 percent of paid online video adopters claim they save money by ordering fewer pay-per-view movies or subscribing to fewer premium channels, and more than 20 percent claim they were able to subscribe to a lower tier package with their TV provider.

Still little cord cutting

Google Plus Traffic Went Up 1269% Last Week

New data from Experian Hitwise show a dramatic increase in traffic over the week since the service opened to everyone. Visits to Google+ increased by 1269 percent last week.

The site received 15 million U.S. visits, up from 1.1 million the week before. Google+ went from ranking 54th in Hitwise's Social Networking and Forums category to ranking 8th in just one week.

That's not all the traffic, either. These stats don't include mobile users or visits from the ubiquitous black Google toolbar.

The data still show that Google+ is disproportionately comprised of "influencers" and "early adopters" compared to other social networks, but the removal of invitations seems to have jump-started visits to the service.

According to Paul Allen's estimates, which have been on track in the past, Google Plus currently has around 43 million users.

Google Plus Traffic Went Up 1269% Last Week

Windows Still Dominates Operating System Market

Microsoft still dominates the PC and tablet operating system market.