Google Tweaks its "Build by Demand" Algorithm

Google has a famously "data driven" culture, so it was not terribly surprising that Google is using a "build by demand" approach to its construction effort. Basically, Google has residents "voting" for Google Fiber by pre-registering and making a payment of $10. 

Each of of the potential "fiberhoods" then has a minimum threshold of pre-registrations that qualify the fiberhood for construction. 

Google has had to create different thresholds for different fiberhoods, and now has tweaked the algorithm just a bit to account for some inaccuracies in the databases Google built from a variety of sources about the actual number of potential residences in a fiberhood. 

So Google now adjusts the "potential homes passed" part of the algorithm to deduct vacant lots, abandoned homes and also adjust for large apartment buildings, as distinct from single-family homes.

The changes slightly affect 73 fiberhoods, boosting the percentage of sign-ups in some of the fiberhoods and therefore slightly increasing the likelihood that some fiberhoods will qualify for actual construction. 

Some 40 out of 74 fiberhoods now qualify. In Kansas City, Missouri while  75 out of 128 fiberhoods have now reached their goals as well. 

"Not Much Happening" in U.S. Broadband? Really?

The National Broadband Plan, which was released two years ago, says that there should be a minimum level of service of at least 4Mbps for all Americans. "Since then, not much has happened," some would say. 

But the Federal Communications Commission says "we found that the average speed tier that consumers were  subscribing to increased from 11.1 Megabits per second (Mbps) to 14.3 Mbps, an almost 30 percent  increase in just one year," in its Measuring Broadband America report. "The actual increase in experienced speeds by consumers was even greater than advertised speed, from 10.6 Mbps to 14.6 Mbps, representing an almost 38 percent improvement over the one year period."

You can make your own assessments of whether anything has happened in the last two years. 

FCC Might Limit Spectrum Holdings to Regulate Competition

The Federal Communications Commission could overhaul the way it measures competition in the wireless industry, The Hill's Hillicon Valley reports. Those measures could include both quantitative limits (total amount of spectrum) as well as qualitative standards (how much of the "best" spectrum any single carrier owns or controls). 

According to the report, FCC Chairman Julius Genachowski plans to circulate an order with the other commissioners next week that would launch a review of the FCC's rules for analyzing whether any one company has accumulated too much spectrum. 

The commission is expected to vote on the proposal at its September 2012 meeting. 

T-Mobile USA, for example, has argued that the current method, which is quantitative, does not account for qualitative differences, such as ability of lower-frequency signals to penetrate walls, for example. 

"The present screen is inadequate as applied to the current wireless  market, particularly because it fails to recognize the vast difference in value between low (below 1GHz) and high (above 1 GHz) frequency bands, T-Mobile USA has argued. 

The Point is to "Be Good," not to "Feel Good"

There is a genuine difference between "being good," or "doing good," and "feeling good." Too often, we opt for the latter, instead of insisting on the former. Consider all-electric cars, something that makes us feel good and virtuous. 

There is a scientific argument to be made, though, that when electricity is generated by coal-fired plants, such vehicles do not actually make a positive contribution to carbon emissions. But it makes people feel good, even when they are not, objectively speaking, "doing good." 

Even when electricity is generated in some other lower carbon way, such as from windmills, there is no such thing as a moral free lunch. Wind farms kill birds and golden eagles. Perhaps that does not cause many qualms. But if not, neither will accidental killing of dolphins when fishing for tuna. 

The specific energy of gasoline — measured in kWh per kg, for instance — is about 400 times higher than that of a lead-acid battery, and about 200 times better than the Lithium-ion battery in the Chevrolet Volt. We should not expect batteries to rival the energy density delivered by our beloved fossil fuels — ever, many correctly would note. 

The point is simply that the important matter is to do good, not just feel good. If you want to lower carbon footprint, then lower it, objectively. Don't posture. Don't substitute "feeling good" for "doing good."

Why One-Sided or Incomplete Thinking is Necessary, and Eventually has to be Corrected

Generally speaking, executing on a strategy takes focus and concentration on a small number of things. Just as certainly, all businesses exist in environments that are complicated. So ultimately, even concentrating on "just one thing," or "just a few things," will eventually prove to be necessary but insufficient. 

Compared to the situation of perhaps four years ago, the telco strategic context needs to be considered in a broader or different context, according to  STL Partners. That is to be expected. Even a "big new idea" necessarily is incomplete as a prescription for organization success. 

So where the key point was the idea of "two-sided business models," STL now says that is something that has to be kept in context. Of course. That was true four years ago, as well. But organizations and people can only focus on so much at one time. So the unchanging requirement is to focus on a few things at a time, even if that is objectively "unbalanced" and "incomplete."

Have Tablets Overtaken Smart Phones as the Device with Star Power?

The Apple iPhone now drives revenue at Apple. But the iPad now seems to have become the product with more appeal.

While both tablet and phone historically enjoy good scores on YouGov's U.K. "BrandIndex," a measure of public's perception of well-known brands, the iPad now might have reached an inflection point.

On a couple of measures, the iPad now gets more attention than the iPhone, YouGov says. That suggests the point just about has been reached when the revenue contribution from the iPad could start to drive more of Apple's overall revenue success. 

FCC Wants New Tax for Connect America Fund

Perhaps it comes as no surprise that the U.S. Federal Communications Commission wants to create a new tax on broadband access services to support its Connect America Fund, essentially the replacement for the older Universal Service Fund.

Aside from the change of nomenclature, the emphasis has shifted from guaranteeing voice services in rural and isolated portions of the country to supplying broadband access services to such areas.

“What started as a program with important goals (making sure rural farmers can make phone calls and ensuring the poorest among us can dial 911) turned into an unaccountable corporate slush fund,” says S. Derek Turner, Free Press research director.

Today USF is an $8 billion annual program, nearly quadrupling in size since its inception, with the bulk of those revenues going to landline and wireless phone companies.

Maybe this massive growth would be no concern if USF were a model program with a sterling reputation for efficiency. “But it’s not,” says Turner.

One recent study found that 59 cents of every USF dollar raised for rural networks was spent on administrative expenses and general overhead. A 2010 audit of the rural USF program found that one out of every four dollars sent to participating phone companies was an “overpayment,” with nearly a billion dollars unaccounted for.

So some would argue that higher taxes are unwarranted.

Phones Will Remain the Signature "Mobile" Device Through 2015

Smart phones will be the signature mobile device globally over the next five years, says Leif-Olof Wallin, a research vice president at tech analysis company Gartner. And Gartner thinks Microsoft will be the big winner, representing 20 percent of the market in 2015. 





While the global mobile market as a whole is shrinking, smartphone adoption will continue to explode.

Mobile U.K. Shoppers Still Prefer to Buy Using a PC

U.K. Internet users are comfortable using mobile devices for researching and browsing products, but they still prefer to turn to a PC when it’s time to buy, a study by Kenshoo and publishing and events company Figaro Digital indicates. 

That study mirrors in key ways the findings of a Google study that suggests as many of 90 percent of people use multiple devices when shopping, for example.



The preference for purchasing using a bigger-screen PC is pronounced when looking even at research activities such as clicking on paid search ads. 

Some 11 percent of all paid search clicks in the United Kingdom in the first quarter of 2012 came from mobile devices (not including tablets), the Kenshoo study suggests. Another 5.8 percent of paid search clicks came from tablets. 

Computers accounted for the lion’s share, at 82.8 percent, according to U eMarketer. 

But actual transactions are more likely to be conducted on a PC. More than nine in 10 said they preferred to buy using a PC, compared to three percent who would rather to do so on a smartphone and two percent on a tablet.

Why it is Difficult to Understand Mobile Payments

Some markets are hard to understand because the concepts are new or because a particular market is intertwined with other markets that also are changing. You might argue that unified communications has been that sort of market. 

But it also appears that mobile payments is that sort of business as well. At some basic level, the value proposition is unclear. Paying using a mobile device instead of cash or a debit or credit card doesn't always have immediate resonance as something that is 10 times better than existing methods of paying for retail purchases.

But part of the uncertainty is probably because retailing is changing. "Mobile commerce" is starting to show signs of merging with the broader "e-commerce" business, which in turn is starting to show signs of merging in a bigger way with physical retailing. 

In other words, m-commerce is merely another form of e-business or e-commerce. Mobile payment is part of the broader m-commerce business. So it might ultimately be the case that the specific value of "mobile payments" is clear only when the other parts of mobile commerce also are clear. 

But there is movement. Look back a decade. What was mobile commerce, really? Ringtones, initially, then downloaded songs and wallpaper. 

But mobile commerce now is viewed as something else, namely a way to use user location and analytic data, often in real time, to enable retail sales, also often in near real time. In some ways, that builds off of e-commerce, using new devices such as smart phones and tablets. 

In other ways, mobile commerce is both an extension of e-commerce and a bridge between physical and virtual retailing. If mobile payments doesn't make absolutely blinding sense, it might be because, right now, the value isn't so great. 

The value should become clearer as the broader mobile commerce trends, and the melding of physical and virtual retailing become clear as well. 

Illiad's "Free" Business is Hammering Rivals

Illiad's "Free" mobile service was intended to disrupt the French mobile market, and it seems, at least for the moment, that Illiad is succeeding. 

French conglomerate Bouygues posted sharply lower first-half profits for its second quarter of 2012, largely because of price competition from Free, which has caused the other leading mobile firms in France to cut prices. 

Bouygues also cut its annual profit forecast for its telecoms division unit by roughly 12 percent as a result of the expected competition, Reuters reports. 

Martin Bouygues, Bouygues chief executive, directly blamed Free Mobile for his company's woes.
"The difficulties we are experiencing are due to competition and the low prices charged by Free,"  the Bouygues CEO said. 

France Telecom, using the brand name "Orange," warned that it expects average revenue per user to fall by 10 percent at its domestic mobile unit Orange France in 2012, as operators engage in a price war following the entry of new low-cost operator, Iliad Group’s Free Mobile, in January. 

2.4 Billion Enterprise Smart Phone Subscribers in 2017

ABI Research estimates that by 2017, 2.4 billion employees globally will be using smart phones, growing about 17 percent a year and representing nearly three times more smart phones than used in 2012. 

Many hundreds of millions of those devices will be brought to work by people who want to use their own personal devices. So mobility suppliers and enterprises need to think in terms of serving all those employees with tools, apps, and services, even if not using company-issued devices, ABI Research says. 

Android has the dominant leadership position among the global workforce expected to grow to 56 percent by 2017. 

90% of Content Operations Move Between Devices

Metaswitch Networks thinks a key to providing more value for communications service providers is to enable sessions using multimedia to be maintained as users move between networks, devices and locations.

“Immersive multimedia telephony” (“Accession”) enables a user to move a conversation or session freely between preferred devices, and to take advantage of local network connectivity or handset capabilities, while instantly sharing content that is related to the users' actions, surroundings or needs, Metaswitch says.

A new study by Google suggests people behave that way when consuming content or conducting search operations as well, so Accession might well be something important.

“The New Multi-screen World: Understanding Cross-Platform Consumer Behavior” study found that 90 percent of people move between devices to accomplish a goal, whether that’s on smart phones, PCs, tablets or TV.

Of the 90 percent of media consumed on a screen of any type, browsing, shopping, trip planning and financial operations make sequential use of mutliple screens, much as Metaswitch enables a user to maintain a voice session initiated on a business phone, transitioned to mobile, and then finished on a home phone.

There are two primary ways people exhibit multi-screen behaviors, the study suggests. Sequential screening is when people move from one device to another to complete a single goal. Simultaneous screening occurs when people use multiple devices at the same time.

The study found that nine out of ten people use multiple screens sequentially and that smart phones are by far the most common starting point for sequential activity.

So completing a task like booking a flight online or managing personal finances doesn’t just happen in one sitting on one device. In fact, 98 percent of sequential screeners move between devices in the same day to complete a task.  

With simultaneous usage, the study found that 77 percent of viewers watching TV with another device in hand. In many cases people search on their devices, inspired by what they see on TV, the report suggests.

Sequential screeners will start interacting with an application on one device and then pick up where they left off on another, so making experiences seamless between devices is key, the study suggests.

Additionally, cross-media campaigns can help brands make the most of consumers’ simultaneous usage across screens. The study also found that when people use screens sequentially to complete an activity, they often use search to pick up where they left off.

So not only is it important for companies to allow customers to save their progress between devices, they should also use tactics like keyword parity to ensure that they can be found easily using search when that customer moves to the next device, the study suggests.

The study found that people often turn to nearby devices to complete spur-of-the-moment activity. In fact, 80 percent of the searches that happen on smart phones are spur-of-the-moment, and 44 percent of these spontaneous searches are goal-oriented, the study says.

Accession mirrors the growing trend of multiple devices being used to accomplish one goal, a trend the Google study also tends to confirm.

             

Will U.K. Business Largely Abandon Landlines Within 5 Years?

Some 65 percent of 500 U.K. chief information officers surveyed by Vanson Bourne on behalf of Virgin Media Business believe fixed network telephones “will disappear from everyday use within five years,” Virgin Media Business says.

PCs are the next most likely to become redundant according to 62 per cent of CIOs. In contrast, smart phones (13 percent) are seen as the least likely devices to be abandoned.

If those opinions wind up being correct, whether the magnitude or timing of the changes are accurate, there will be shifts of opportunity for suppliers of unified communications, business phone systems, mobile and fixed network service providers alike.

Aside from depressing sales of business phone systems, there are potentially greater opportunities for providers of hosted alternatives, especially those providers whose unified communications services are well suited to use of mobile devices.

But the impact is likely to be disparate. Some workers might find there is less need for unified communications. But call center functions obviously will continue to require a high level of support.

Collaboration functions could shift to other media types.

But if the CIOs are accurate, business voice rapidly is shifting to mobile modes, for most workers, with obvious architectural implications.

Tablet technology, on the other hand, is seen as something of a fad by about 24 percent of companies expect the devices to fall out of fashion.

By the end of 2012, 70 percent of the U.K. population is expected to have a smart device reliant on mobile connectivity, Virgin Media Business argues. Already, in the past year the amount of data consumed on the Virgin Media Business network jumped to 765 billion individual bits of data being transferred every second, erasing the previous mark for the Virgin Media Business network by 27 percent, Virgin Media Business says.

Historically, one might have argued that the higher cost of mobile calling would make it an unlikely substitute for fixed network calling. But the differences are shrinking.

The wholesale price of calling mobile phones from a landline is set to fall 85 percent by April 2015, according to  the U.K. Competition Appeals Tribunal.

The Ofcom decision to reduce mobile termination rates will mean an estimated caller savings of about  £800 million. Mobile termination rates could mean the cost of calls, on a per minute basis, would fall from 4.18p to just 0.65p.

Apple will Create its Own Wireless Network with "AirPlay Direct"

Apple wants to improve the AirPlay wireless music streaming technology, which currently requires Airplay speakers and a WiFi network. The new version will require just speakers or a stereo system and an iDevice. Reportedly, the iPhone, iPod or iPad would form its own network to allow a direct connection and music playback.

The move is expected to be announced at the launch of the new iPhone, which is widely rumoured to take place on September 12, according to the Telegraph

In its current form, AirPlay allows users to stream video, music, and other audio from their Apple devices to an Apple TV or to AirPlay-enabled speakers. This ability requires a local Wi-Fi network.

Presumably, Apple is thinking about enabling new  third party speakers to build Wi-Fi capability directly into the speakers or a receiver so that the streaming signal can be received directly from an iDevice. 

In other words, iDevices will create their own Wi-Fi network, assuming there is a backhaul or access network the iDevice can connect to.