Tuesday, March 17, 2026

"Project Hail Mary" is Worth Seeing

If you are a fan of Andy Weir or science fiction, you'll love Project Hail Mary. It retains the book's hard science, problem-solving under pressure and humor.

The story is essentially a chain of scientific puzzles. Each solution creates a new constraint.

The tension comes from figuring things out.


It’s just a great story.


But the movie also is full of familiar themes about sacrifice, vocation, and what it means to “save” others.


The protagonist, Ryland Grace, is not a willing hero at first—he’s drafted into a mission to save humanity.


For those of you with some familiarly with the biblical stories of Jonah or even Moses, Grace resists the calling.


If his vocation is to save earth, he must do so despite fear or reluctance. His enthusiasm is not the point, but rather his obedience to a higher good, including the sacrifice he has to make, for others. Again, those familiar with the Christian or Jewish themes of sacrifice and substitutionary atonement will see the parallels.


Grace’s transformation from self-centeredness to love and service also is a story about redemption.


The relationship with the alien Rocky is key to the story and so you might also hear echoes of “love your neighbor” and questions about “who is my neighbor (the parable of the Good Samaritan), on a cosmic scale.


Some might find the idea odd, at first, but there also is a scientific parallel to the way Catholics are taught to approach faith itself. Some might argue faith is not central to scientific inquiry. 


It is a common misconception that science is a purely "objective" pursuit devoid of belief, while religion is a "blind" leap into the dark. In reality, both systems rely on a specific architecture. 


Science cannot prove itself using its own methods. To even begin an experiment, a scientist must operate on several unprovable assumptions that necessary are a form of intellectual faith:

  • Uniformity of Nature: The belief that the laws of physics are the same in Tokyo as they are on Mars, and the same today as they will be tomorrow

  • The Intelligibility of the Universe: The assumption that the human mind is actually capable of perceiving and understanding the "logic" of the cosmos

  • Trust in Testimony: No scientist can replicate every experiment ever done. They must have "faith" in the peer-review process and the honesty of the global scientific community

  • Predictability: If we don't assume the universe is predictable, the scientific method stalls before it starts.


Basically, science requires faith that the universe is orderly. You might think “reason” is an odd approach to religion (I sure did). But the Catechism has faith and reason in Part one, section one, chapter one. It is a foundational approach.  


Unlike "fideism" (faith without reason) or "rationalism" (reason without faith), the Catholic approach is based on “checks and balances:”:

  • Without reason, human thought tends to slide into extremes either of Fideism (Faith without Reason) which leads to superstition, fanaticism, and "blind" obedience, or “rationalism” (what matters is only what can be measured). If faith doesn't have to be reasonable, then anything can be justified in the name of religion.

  • God is rational (so the universe is ordered), not capricious

  • Faith is informed by reason: Faith provides a broader context for the "why" behind the "how" that science discovers

  • Non-Contradiction: Because God is the author of both the physical world (science) and revelation (faith), the two cannot truly contradict one another (science uncovers the footprints of God)

  • Reason informs faith because the universe is a coherent whole.


If a scientific discovery seems to contradict a religious doctrine, the Catholic approach assumes either:

  • The science is incomplete (the data is wrong), or

  • Our theological interpretation is flawed (we are reading the scripture too literally or narrowly).


So Project Hail Mary is about the scientific method: Hypothesis;  testing; trust in unseen causes. But that is not so different from reasoned belief.


Obviously, Grace and Rocky collaborate to save two planets and life forms. So the notion of stewardship and salvation are involved. 


Even the name “Grace” is hard to ignore. In Christian theology, grace is a free, unearned gift. “Flawed” Ryland Grace “does the right thing” in spite of his initial instincts and preferences.


Project Hail Mary is a really-entertaining movie with notable religious themes:

  • Salvation requires sacrifice

  • Moral growth requires choice

  • Love extends beyond boundaries

  • Hope operates under uncertainty

  • Why should we sacrifice for others?

  • What makes a life meaningful?

  • Who counts as “neighbor”?


Monday, March 16, 2026

New Technology Often Requires Inventing New Interim Proxies for Financial Potential

When a new technology such as artificial intelligence creates new kinds of value, the traditional financial metrics (revenue, profit, return on investment) often fail to capture progress in the early years.


Instead, industries invent intermediate operating metrics: proxies that signal whether the new model is working before the business model is fully proven. Sometimes it works; sometimes it doesn't.


Lots of dot-com firms touted "eyeballs" as a measure of attention. Many competitive telecom firms used metrics such as "access line equivalents" (taking total bandwidth and breaking it into voice grade "line" equivalents) as an example of potential revenue upside.


These metrics usually measure one of three things:

  • Adoption (how many people use it)

  • Engagement or usage intensity

  • Network growth or installed base


Stage

What Firms Measure

Early technology adoption

Installed base, users, traffic

Network growth

Engagement, interactions, ecosystem size

Monetization phase

Revenue per user, margins

Mature industry

Standard financial metrics


In the computing business, there are many examples. 


Technology Wave

Era

Early Operating Metric

What It Measured

Later Financial Metric That Replaced It

Firms

Personal computers

1980s

Installed PC base

Growth of computing platform

Software and hardware revenue

Microsoft, Apple

Dial-up Internet

Early 1990s

Subscribers / online accounts

Growth of consumer internet access

ARPU and subscription revenue

America Online

Web portals

Late 1990s

Page views

Traffic volume and advertising potential

Ad revenue per user

Yahoo

Dot-com era websites

1998–2001

“Eyeballs” (unique visitors)

Audience reach

Advertising revenue

Netscape ecosystem sites

Telecom data services

1990s–2000s

Access Line Equivalents (ALEs)

Aggregate network demand

ARPU and service revenue

telecom carriers

Search engines

Early 2000s

Queries per day

Demand for information retrieval

Revenue per search / ad revenue

Google

Social media

2005–2015

Monthly Active Users (MAU)

Network size and engagement

Ad revenue per user

Meta Platforms

Cloud computing

2010s

Compute instances / workloads

Adoption of cloud infrastructure

Revenue growth and margin

Amazon Web Services

SaaS software

2010s

Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR)

Predictable subscription base

Free cash flow and margin

Salesforce

Sharing economy

2010s

Gross bookings / rides

Platform usage volume

Take rate and net revenue

Uber

Streaming video

2010s

Subscribers

Platform scale

ARPU and operating margin

Netflix

Cryptocurrency

2015–2022

Wallets, hash rate, total value locked

Network security and participation

Transaction fees and financial services revenue

Coinbase ecosystem

Generative AI

2023–present

Tokens processed / active developers / API calls

Real workload demand

Revenue per model usage

OpenAI

Many could note a similar pattern for AI. New metrics emerge because we cannot typically measure early impact using traditional financial measures:

  • Monetization lags adoption

  • Network effects require scale first

  • Investors need forward-looking signals, so usage metrics answer that question before profits exist.


Phase

Typical Metric

Technology novelty

Install base

Early growth

Users or traffic

Platform stage

Engagement

Business model maturity

Revenue per user

Mature industry

Profitability


The AI economy therefore creates new metrics in the interim:

  • Tokens processed

  • Active developers

  • Inference workload

  • Model training compute. 


These resemble earlier indicators in the early internet era such as:

  • page views (web)

  • queries (search)

  • Monthly active users (social media)


Eventually the industry will likely shift to measures more closely tied directly to firm profits and revenues:

  • revenue per AI workload

  • enterprise productivity gains

  • profit margins on AI services.


Eventually, we’ll learn which operating metrics actually have higher predictive value, and which have less. 


During the dot-com bubble around the turn of the century, some metrics turned out to have near-zero predictive value.


Company

Metric Highlighted

What the Metric Measured

Why It Was Misleading

Pets.com

Website traffic / brand awareness

Consumer interest in online pet supplies

Traffic did not translate into profitable orders because shipping costs exceeded margins

Webvan

Number of cities launched

Geographic expansion of grocery delivery infrastructure

Massive capital spending occurred before proving unit economics

eToys

Revenue growth rate

Rapid expansion of online toy sales

Sales were heavily subsidized by marketing and discounting

TheGlobe.com

Registered users

Size of social community platform

Users were mostly non-paying and generated little revenue

Boo.com

Site engagement and global launch presence

Interest in online fashion retail

Extremely expensive website technology created slow performance and high operating costs

Excite

Page views

Web portal traffic volume

Advertising demand could not support the scale of infrastructure spending

Lycos

Unique visitors

Audience size of web portal

Monetization per visitor was extremely low

Broadcast.com

Streaming traffic and media partnerships

Growth of internet audio/video streaming

Technology and bandwidth costs exceeded realistic revenue models

Priceline (early phase)

Gross travel bookings

Total value of transactions handled

Gross bookings overstated the company’s actual revenue capture

Drkoop.com

Health site visitors

Consumer interest in medical information

Advertising revenue insufficient to support operations


What AI Changes in the Area of Connectivity

Year in and year out, it is always safe to predict that connectivity bandwidth demand will grow. But we might always ask how specific innova...