No Such Things As "Average"

The issue with "averages" is that they often obscure more than they illustrate. Look at demand for enhanced mobile features, for example, as this Yankee Group chart suggests. There are lots of features, interesting to lots of users, but no one app that really distinquishes itself from the others because "everybody" wants it. There are lots of potential ways to personalize usage; to create services tailored to lots of different user groups; to add value and create revenue. "Average" user? Fuhgedaboutit.

Expensive Zero Sum?

Comcast is boosting its capital spending by about 20 percent for 2007, a move that has at least some investors upset. The thinking is that cable plant now is supposed to be "future proof."

Still, Comcast Chairman Brian Roberts says “we can capture market share now” if Comcast invests. Roberts is right about that. But there's a longer term issue. At some point, bundling, Triple and Quad Plays will result in lower average revenue per unit, and are fundamentally a zero sum game. Contestants can trade share, but can't grow the market if that's all they do. They pretty much know that.

Bundling will help some contestants. But it is no recipe for growth. Incumbents know that as well. At some point, at least some disruptors will find it is in their own financial interests to partner, on some level, with some incumbents. That will be good for disruptors, and essential for incumbents.

Still, it's worth remembering that Verizon, at&t, Comcast and others are going to have to invest in their delivery platforms. Investors won't like it. But the investments ultimately will pay off if the incumbents can figure out ways to work with disruptors instead of trying to invent everything themselves. We think they know that too.

If contestants stop at "bundling" they all lose, ultimately. Growing new markets is key to winning over the long term, and we can't see this happening anyway other than working with disruptors. Otherwise a very expensive zero sum game is the logical outcome. And that's not good for users, in either professional, personal or other elements of life.

Shift Happens

Over the next 3 years, businesses are going to shift much of their network buying towards VoIP and away from traditional long distance, says The Yankee Group. Businesses will continue to replace traditional PBXs with IP PBXs, continue to adopt wide area forms of Ethernet, continue to buy more bandwidth, and start moving to integrate fixed and mobile forms of voice within their enterprises.

This is What Worries Me About IMS...

David Beckemeyer points out all he's done to create an authoring platform. So what happens if developers don't show up? Says David:

"PhoneGnome has offered a free API for almost a year now. But where are the innovators? We even offered to provide a free PhoneGnome box to those publishing apps to the User Contributed Library.

People say they want this stuff. They can talk the talk, but can they walk the walk?

PhoneGnome has offered an open platform for any PSTN termination service or origination service since day one (since July 2005!). But so far, who plays? PhoneGnome has one excellent partner offering unlimited plans, Vocal-net, but where are rest? Why do none of the PSTN termination providers out there want to actually sell their services? What do they have to lose in adding another distribution channel for their service? There are literally dozens, if not hundreds, of SIP PSTN termination services out there and yet none of them are interested in partnering with PhoneGnome to offer their service to the quickly growing base of PhoneGnome subscribers (both web-based and those with the PhoneGnome box). Many of these services have actively refused to participate. What are they thinking? What are they afraid of? You don't get a rational answer when you ask them. It's like they run their businesses with their heart and ego instead of their head.

Furthermore, PhoneGnome offers a platform for introducing thrid-party innovations to any phone subscriber in the world with a broadband Internet connection. Quoting Simon Torrence of STL in the UK, publisher of Telco2.0: "PhoneGnome is to fixed lines what WiFi handsets are to mobile.... For much less than the cost of an IMS deployment, you can hand out PhoneGnomes, and build a platform business with far more features than could ever be deployed in IMS, and deploy them within weeks, not years."

The iotum folks were the first to embrace this platform. As a result, an enhanced call-screening service based on their "relevance engine" technology is available to anyone in North America with phone service and broadband Internet. Tellme Networks have come to the table with a very cool and innovative "Tellme DialTone 2.0" Technology Trial. But where are the rest? You could be selling your Voice 2.0 service worldwide today.

We keep hearing that it's time to sell on features rather than price but we see little evidence that anybody is really doing that. That link, by the way, references an article that only deals with boring Voice 1.0 "features" like call waiting and such. Admittedly, even PhoneGnome messaging (the generic retail product, at least) is still focused on price ("Free worldwide calling, your way"). But if we really believe the future is in the service innovations, and I do believe that, then it's time to put our actions where our words are.

So don't complain that these platforms don't exist. It's here, available now, and open to anyone with the ideas. The platform for Voice 2.0 innovation is here. Now, where are all the service providers?"

Some Days Ya Gotta Keep Perspective...

Your problems are not so important. What you did today was not so important. What will you do tomorrow? Probably not that important. But some people did important things today. Yesterday. Last month. Last year. Some people have been doing so for a while. Among them, 20-year-old Lance Cpl. John M. Holmason, and nine other Marines with F Company, 2nd Battalion, 7th Marine Regiment, 1st Marine Division, in Fallujah. For my son Dylan, off soon to the Naval Academy, these are your guys. I know you won't let them down.

Billions and Billions Served...

Sort of reminds you of the McDonald's signs: "X billions of burgers served." Looks like over the top Internet video is going that way as well, if forecasters at The Yankee Group are correct. Bandwidth demand is about to go bananas.

Surprise Success, Again

Voice SMS was launched in early 2005 under the name “Bubble Talk” by mobile operator Digi in Malaysia and within six months, more than 35 percent of Digi’s subscribers were using Bubble Talk and the other mobile operators in Malaysia were losing market share, says Brough Turner, NMS Communications SVP. If you're familiar with Pinger, voice SMS is a way to send a quick voice message to another mobile user.

The recipient gets an SMS message saying they've got a message and to go pick it up.
It's an intentionally nonsynchronous communications mode.

Multimedia Messaging Service can do the same thing, of course. But MMS hasn't gotten much traction, though this forecast by The Yankee Group certainly anticipates growth. Still, Voice SMS apparently has advantages. It works on any handset or network, requiring simple text and voice, which most handsets now have.

Users seem willing to use it even though it comes with price points 30 percent to 100 percent above those of text messages, says Turner. More than a dozen networks offer Voice SMS, mostly in Asia. Once again, we see surprise success, while the industry's standards-driven services (not that there's anything wrong with that) struggle.

At least so far, experience with voice SMS and MMS suggests that changing user behavior too much is a tough way to get people to do new things. Experimentation and surprise remains the order of the day. Listen more, talk less.