iPhone Demand: Watch Behavior

Because what people are saying they might suggests no clear trend. It is clear that Demand for music enabled phones is growing. But iPod demand is distinct from phone demand. And iPhone prices are an issue. But the potential churn away from other carriers to at&t could be substantial.

More than 33% of all wireless phones now are music enabled, and market researcher Compete found music phones made up over 53% of all December cellphone shopping hits it tracked. There were just over 3 million total music phone shoppers in December, and almost as many iPod shoppers, with 2.7 million consumers evaluating iPods online.

But the market for combination iPod and cellphone devices isn't clear. Compete found that only 5% of all cellphone shoppers also evaluated an iPod in December, and only 3% viewed both a music phone and an iPod.

Of course, price is an issue. Even among the diehard segment of iPod shoppers who said they are very likely to buy an iPhone, only 6% said they would pay over $400. There's little question that the iPhone has achieved near instant name recognition, however.

A week after the historic announcement of the iPhone, Compete found that75% of iPod shoppers had already heard of the iPhone, and a healthy 20% said they would postpone their next cellphone purchase to wait for it. 20% also said they would postpone their next music player purchase.

The good news for Cingular is that 12% of iPod shoppers said they would be very likely to switch carriers to get the iPhone. The bad news is that of the people who are not willing to switch, over 30% cite Cingular’s service plan pricing, and another 35% cite Cingular’s coverage.

Of the people not likely to switch, almost 40% said they had no interest in purchasing a combination music player and phone, and over 55% said their current carrier has cellphones that meet their needs. And price will be a hurdle. Consumer oriented smartphones generally have sold in large volumes at a price point of about $200.

Still, we always have found that it makes more sense to pay attention to what people actually do, than to what they say they will do. And we'll have to wait six months to see what happens when iPhones actually go on sale.

Google, Avaya Aim at Enterprise

Avaya is supporting and joining the Google Enterprise Professional program to develop new capabilities for small businesses around Google's enterprise products. Under terms of the agreement, Avaya will develop, market and support offers that integrate Avaya's advanced communications solutions for small businesses with the new Google Apps Premier Edition, the subscription services solution for email, instant messaging, calendar and Web publishing services.

Examples of the open standards-based capabilities on which the solutions will focus include: enabling subscribers to easily share contact information, presence information and alerts; enabling a single in-box for voice mail, email, instant messages and fax messages; and enabling web calling over the Google Talk instant messaging service network. The companies' collaborative efforts will initially focus on Avaya IP Office, Avaya’s flagship IP telephony communications solution for small and mid-size businesses, with availability planned for fall 2007. Further solutions are expected to continue the emphasis on productivity-enhancing and cost-cutting capabilities for small and mid-sized companies.

The first integrated solution, which Avaya expects to deliver later this year, will be sold through Avaya's global network of resellers and distributors, providing customers with a single point of contact for sales, installation and support.

According to Google, Google Apps has been used until now by more than 100,000 small businesses and hundreds of universities. But not just small businesses.

“So much of business now relies on people being able to communicate and collaborate effectively,” says Gregory Simpson, CTO for General Electric Company. “GE is interested in evaluating Google Apps for the easy access it provides to a suite of web applications, and the way these applications can help people work together. Given its consumer experience, Google has a natural advantage in understanding how people interact together over the web.”

Tpad Gives Away SIP Addresses

Tpad now provides a unique incoming SIP number to every customer free of charge. All of which points out in a concrete way that while the cost to do such things is not "free," revenue models are not dependent on packaging cost elements in any linear fashion. Tpad has to cover it costs and make a profit, but the way it does so might be enhanced by doing some things in an unusual way and earning revenue someplace else.

"We believe that it is unfair to charge people just for a number to receive calls," says Steven Johns, Tpad marketing manager. Tpad also bills by the second, rather than rounding up to the next full minute.

GrandCentral and Gizmo Project Get Hitched

GrandCentral's unified communications service now is interoperable with SipPhone's Gizmo Project PC calling client. GrandCentral customers can now designate their free Gizmo Project profile ID, which appears like a 747 area code number in their Gizmo profile, as one of their destination numbers which will ring on their personal computers or select next generation Nokia dual mode Nseries mobile phone or Internet Tablet, whenever a call comes into their GrandCentral number.

This new GrandCentral feature also provides existing Gizmo users with the ability to receive calls for free directly from the traditional telephone network (PSTN) on their Gizmo enabled Nokia portable devices, Apple Macintosh and Windows PCs. Which eliminates at least one more direct inward dial number any user has to contend with.

Owners of Nokia dual mode N80-Internet Edition mobile phones, the Internet Tablet 770 or N series 800 Internet Tablet which access the Internet over Wi-Fi can also use versions of Gizmo Project on these handheld devices to receive calls without incurring any roaming charges or using any cellular minutes when connected to Wi-Fi networks.

Vonage to Try an "EarthLink"?

Vonage says it will start offering wireless services to subscribers during the second half of 2007, after announcing it would support dual mode phones working over Wi-Fi connections. The company also expects to announce new agreements to resell other carriers' broadband Internet access services, as well as new content deals later this year, sources say. That will make Vonage into something resembling an EarthLink.

Even residential video services, in some markets, might be offered. Though margin will be an issue, as it always is with resale, the moves will address the average revenue per unit problem Vonage has. Namely, its cost of acquiring a new customer is in line with what a cable company, at&t or Verizon would expect, but the monthly revenue is far below what those other providers typically get.

GigE at Desktop Taking Over

More than half of new Ethernet ports now being sold are gigE rather than 10/100 Mbps, says Jeff Fulton, Netgear network consultant. “Historically, 10Mb to 10/100 took place when the price per port for Fast Ethernet was $30," he says. "We are at that changeover now for 10/100 to GbE." The price for 10/100 has sunk to $10–$15 per port. The lower prices are fueling continuing Ethernet growth, says The Yankee Group.

The Dell'Oro Group says worldwide sales of optical transport equipment reached the highest level in five years during the fourth quarter of 2006. WDM system sales grew 42 percent year-over-year and accounted for all of the market increase.

Additionally, more than half of networking executives see the cost of wide area network facilities to be their primary concern this year. Also, 94 per cent of companies believe that they will need additional bandwidth than they are currently using over the next year, say researchers at the Aberdeen Group.

Access, Not WAN, is Bandwidth Issue

As always, the bandwidth choke point remains the access network. Local area network bandwidth is easy to upgrade. Long haul bandwidth also is not much of an issue, on most routes. The issue, for any service provider except a cable company or satellite company, is that replacments for linear TV will have to be delivered over the IP pipe, not a special purpose video delivery network. Multicast or broadcast networks are the best way to deliver linear TV. IP networks are a better way to deliver any sort of symmetrical service, but grossly inefficient for streaming content on a unicast basis. Access remains the choke point.