Blockbuster, Netflix, Movie Gallery: Diverging Paths

On-demand video will be a bigger part of overall television and movie viewing, no doubt. But that hasn't--so far--prevented Netflix from growing. In fact, Netflix recently raised its guidance for 2008 sales. The same can't be said for the retail store format, a business that awaits either reinvention or extinction.

For the first quarter, Netflix now sees revenues of $324 million to $328 million, up from $323 million to $328 million, with net income of $10 million to $14 million, up from $9 million to $14 million and ending subscribers of 8.16 million to 8.26 million, up from 7.85 million to 8.05 million.

For the full year, the company now sees revenues of $1.345 billion to $1.385 billion, up from $1.3 billion to $1.35 billion.

Netflix also sees year subs of 8.9 million to 9.5 million, up from 8.4 million to 8.9 million.

Blockbuster and Movie Gallery, it almost goes without saying, still face issues with their retail store formats. In its most recent quarter, Blockbuster DVD rentals continued to grow in global markets, though domestic U.S. sales fell slightly. Movie Gallery is operating under Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection.

Blockbuster worldwide same-store and by-mail revenues increased 7.4 percent from the same period last year. Domestic same-store revenues, excluding by-mail subscription revenues, decreased 0.9 percent, an improvement from fourth quarter 2006 performance, but not keeping pace with Netflix.

Movie Gallery, which owns the Hollywood Video chain, also is shuttering some 920 stores our of 4,491 existing stores located in all 50 U.S. states and Canada. Movie Gallery's May 2007 quarterly report, the most recent, showed declining sales.

Ultimately, the video distribution business will learn what other retailers have learned. There still is some element of "physical browsing" that provides value to consumer. If not, nobody would go to shopping malls or other retail outlets.

What requires some thought is whether a physical browsing capability still adds value, beyond the value of online recommendations and order fulfillment. Retail kiosks are a partial answer to distribution. So far, kiosks don't seem to replace the retail browsing experience.

T-Mobile Handles Churn

Though it doesn't appear T-Mobile USA will be changing its market share position in the near term, it appears to be doing a good job on the churn front.

It added 951,000 net new customers added in the fourth quarter of 2007, up from 901,000 in the fourth quarter of 2006. That's important because "net" adds are what one has left after deducting the customers who churned away in any given time period. The other data point is that, in its most-recent quarter, T-Mobile's churn dropped to 1.8 percent, down from 2.1 percent in the fourth quarter of 2006.'

That is notable because T-Mobile has a large percentage of contracts that are of the one-year variey, not the the two-year contracts that increasingly are the norm in the postpaid segment of the market. It also is notable because there is some evidence T-Mobile customers are more active than customers of some of the other leading mobile carriers in investigating alternatives.

"T-Mobile customers are the most active in checking out competitive products and services," says Compete.com analyst Jeff Hull.

"This is partly because they are a younger, more active subscriber base, and partly because of the legacy of one-year contracts at T-Mobile," says Hull.

"If you look at an upstart like Helio, four percent of their site traffic is from existing T-Mobile customers, with two percent from both AT&T and Verizon Wireless, and Sprint/Nextel customers seemingly uninterested in checking out the MVNO."

T-Mobile customers also are over-represented at the Boost Mobile site, another youth oriented brand that is successfully attracting T-Mobile user interest. At the margin, and it might only be at the margin, there does seem to be a difference between customer bases at T-Mobile and Sprint or Nextel, for example.

Given the apparent high "shopping" and "comparison" behavior, the lower churn is an accomplishment.

Senate Bill Mandates VoIP E911

Several years ago some VoIP proponents argued that regulators should not impose "legacy" emergency calling rules on new VoIP providers. That was back when some providers were aiming to replace legacy calling services with a variety of new applications or services, not all of which logically seemed to be "like" public network services. That largely remains true for services that remain in the PC-to-PC domain. But it appears the battle to avoid emergency calling regulations for all "replacement" services is moving inexorably to a conclusion.

Though similar legislation will have to be passed by the U.S. House of Representatives, the Senate has passed the IP-Enabled Voice Communications and Public Safety Act, a bill proposed by Senator Ted Stevens (R-AK). The legislation now moves to the House of Representatives for further consideration.

The bill requires all VoIP companies to provide enhanced 911 (E911) services to all subscribers. The bill gives the Federal Communications Commission authority to add 911 requirements into all new phone services as they evolve, without needing Congress' involvement. Elemental fairness, some would say.

For providers who once hoped relaxed regulatory oversight would provide a price advantage in the market, that hope increasingly is dashed. VoIP services that are effective replacements for public network calling will carry the same tax, safety and regulatory burdens legacy services do. And some would say that's just fair.

Jaduka Widgets Released

Jaduka has launched a new program to entice application developers to use Jaduka communication apps. It now offers free Web telephony service and widgets that bring voice communication to Web sites, browsers, blogs, and email.

Software developers can set up a free Jaduka Labs account that links their standard home, office, or mobile phone with their online activities.

dukaDIAL (www.dukadial.com) lets users make phone-to-phone calls to anyone in North America for free. The concept is similar to Jajah, if you are familiar with that service. A user goes to the Web site, enters the number of the device that will make a call and the number to be dialed.

When “Start your Call” is clicked, the application automatically dials both parties and connects the call. Users also can view call history and add numbers to the contact list that is shared with other Jaduka applications.

dukaLINK (www.dukalink.com) creates personal HTML hyperlinks that users can post on Craigslist, Facebook, a blog or emails. When users click the dukaLINK, they’re prompted to submit their phone number to automatically trigger a free phone call to you.

The application also supplies a public number and then forwards calls to the number a user has set up in a profile.

dukaBUZZ (www.dukabuzz.com) was developed for bloggers and social media junkies who want to hear from their readers. dukaBUZZ enables Web site visitors to leave “audio comments” or testimonials on your blog or Web site that can be heard by others.

Instead of typing and posting written comments, visitors record audio comments using the dukaBUZZ widget and their standard phone. dukaBUZZ works with any blogging software, including bBlog, Blogger, Drupal, Moveable Type / TypePad, Serendipity, WordPress, etc.

dukaBAR (www.dukabar.com) is a toolbar plug-in that automatically scans Web pages and converts all phone numbers into clickable links that initiate phone calls. It also stores a user's frequently called numbers in a contact list so that you can speed dial right from your browser. No software downloads or headsets required.

duhBATE (www.duhbate08.com) lets users create their own presidential campaign by adding their voice to the likeness of theirfavorite politician. The interactive political parody uses a user's telephone as the microphone for you to record "campaign promises", for example. When finished, the character speaks in the user's recorded voice online.

All of these widgets are examples of ways voice is being integrated into the fabric of other applications such as email, social networking and blog sites.

Mobile, Landline Have Switched Roles

Since 2002, U.S. consumers have dramatically changed their perceptions of the value of mobile and fixed voice services, according to a new survey by the Pew Internet and American Life Project.

In 2002, 63 percent of respondents said it would be hard to give up their landline telephone. In 2007, just 40 percent say that would be hard.

In 2002, 38 percent of respondents said it would be hard to give up their mobile phones. In 2007, 51 percent said it would be hard to give up their mobiles.

In other findings, a greater percentage now say it would be hard to give up their Internet access. Where 38 percent thought so in 2002, in the latest survey 45 percent said it would be tough to give up.

Fewer people are as attached to their TV services as they were in 2002. But lots more people now expect to have mobile email service. Just six percent in 2002 said it would be hard to give up their BlackBerry or similar device. Now 36 percent say they would find it hard.

Trouble at Clearwire?

Clearwire generated $45.4 million in service revenues in its most recent quarter, a 91 percent growth rate year over year. Not bad. But it is the guidance for 2008 that is troublesome.IT expects a 29 percent to 35 percent subscriber growth to end 2008 with 510,000 to 530,000 subscribers.

Growth businesses aren't supposed to slow that much, so early into their growth trajectory. Average revenue per user doesn't seem to be headed in the right direction, either. ARPU in the fourth quarter was just over $36.00, slightly below the year-ago quarter.

Disney Launches Mobile Service in Japan

Disney's new mobile phone service in Japan, based on use of Softbank Corp.'s mobile network, will be Disney's third attempt to define a new content-heavy or otherwise segmented approach to the mobile market.After experimenting with sports content and service for kids, it now is targeting Japanese women in theirDisney's new mobile phone service in Japan, based on use of Softbank Corp.'s mobile network, will be Disney's third attempt to define a new content-heavy or otherwise segmented approach to the mobile market.After experimenting with sports content and service for kids, it now is targeting Japanese women in their 20s and 30s.

The reeason? The company reasons that since females older than 20 represent 75 percent of the 3.5 million subscribers to Disney's myriad Japanese mobile websites, Disney Mobile can use designer handsets and that content interest to drive adoption.

The new service launches with three phones, each programmed to speed access to Disney websites. Users also can personalize their screens and emails with Disney characters.

You have to appreciate Disney's willingness to experiment. It launched two segmented wireless services in the U.S. market, Mobile ESPN, based at male sports nuts, and Mobile Disney, used by children but aimed at worried parents. Neither got traction. Other retail providers arguably should hope the latest attempt will fail as well.

The reason is that if a content brand can carve out a new space for itself in mobile, with a slightly-different business model (driving traffic to content Web sites, supported by advertising or commerce, for example), it attacks the subscription-based traditional model.

Just as important, it would represent a further shift in value towards independent brands in the communications space, much as Apple as emerged as a mobile brand in its own right, and as Google hopes to. Some will argue that Disney has learned nothing from two earlier unsuccessful efforts. Others will say the Japanese market is sufficiently different that it is a reasonable bet.

It's an experiment of the sort IP Multimedia Subsystem is supposed to provide mobile operators: allow rapid new service trials to see what sticks. One has to appreciate Disney's willingness to keep experimenting, despite earlier lack of success.

Traditional prDisney's new mobile phone service in Japan, based on use of Softbank Corp.'s mobile network, will be Disney's third attempt to define a new content-heavy or otherwise segmented approach to the mobile market.After experimenting with sports content and service for kids, it now is targeting Japanese women in their 20s and 30s.

The reeason? The company reasons that since females older than 20 represent 75 percent of the 3.5 million subscribers to Disney's myriad Japanese mobile websites, Disney Mobile can use designer handsets and that content interest to drive adoption.

The new service launches with three phones, each programmed to speed access to Disney websites. Users also can personalize their screens and emails with Disney characters.

You have to appreciate Disney's willingness to experiment. It launched two segmented wireless services in the U.S. market, Mobile ESPN, based at male sports nuts, and Mobile Disney, used by children but aimed at worried parents. Neither got traction. Other retail providers arguably should hope the latest attempt will fail as well.

The reason is that if a content brand can carve out a new space for itself in mobile, with a slightly-different business model (driving traffic to content Web sites, supported by advertising or commerce, for example), it attacks the subscription-based traditional model.

Just as important, it would represent a further shift in value towards independent brands in the communications space, much as Apple as emerged as a mobile brand in its own right, and as Google hopes to. Some will argue that Disney has learned nothing from two earlier unsuccessful efforts. Others will say the Japanese market is sufficiently different that it is a reasonable bet.

It's an experiment of the sort IP Multimedia Subsystem is supposed to provide mobile operators: allow rapid new service trials to see what sticks. One has to appreciate Disney's willingness to keep experimenting, despite earlier lack of success.

Traditional providers will be watching as well, for signs a further shift in value towards "applications," and away from "access," might be possible. On the other hand, naysayers will say the communications business has only so much room for content-centric approaches. At the end of the day, they argue, the quality of services, measured in terms of dropped calls performance, audio quality, access speed and so forth, plus service attributes, are far more important to the typical mobile user than "content" features.

So far, the naysayers have been largely correct. The issue is who, and where, this might not prove to be such an iron-clad rule. Disney hopes to find out.oviders will be watching as well, for signs a further shift in value towards "applications," and away from "access," might be possible. On the other hand, naysayers will say the communications business has only so much room for content-centric approaches. At the end of the day, they argue, the quality of services, measured in terms of dropped calls performance, audio quality, access speed and so forth, plus service attributes, are far more important to the typical mobile user than "content" features.

So far, the naysayers have been largely correct. The issue is who, and where, this might not prove to be such an iron-clad rule. Disney hopes to find out. 20s and 30s.

The reeason? The company reasons that since females older than 20 represent 75 percent of the 3.5 million subscribers to Disney's myriad Japanese mobile websites, Disney Mobile can use designer handsets and that content interest to drive adoption.

The new service launches with three phones, each programmed to speed access to Disney websites. Users also can personalize their screens and emails with Disney characters.

You have to appreciate Disney's willingness to experiment. It launched two segmented wireless services in the U.S. market, Mobile ESPN, based at male sports nuts, and Mobile Disney, used by children but aimed at worried parents. Neither got traction. Other retail providers arguably should hope the latest attempt will fail as well.

The reason is that if a content brand can carve out a new space for itself in mobile, with a slightly-different business model (driving traffic to content Web sites, supported by advertising or commerce, for example), it attacks the subscription-based traditional model.

Just as important, it would represent a further shift in value towards independent brands in the communications space, much as Apple as emerged as a mobile brand in its own right, and as Google hopes to. Some will argue that Disney has learned nothing from two earlier unsuccessful efforts. Others will say the Japanese market is sufficiently different that it is a reasonable bet.

It's an experiment of the sort IP Multimedia Subsystem is supposed to provide mobile operators: allow rapid new service trials to see what sticks. One has to appreciate Disney's willingness to keep experimenting, despite earlier lack of success.

Traditional providers will be watching as well, for signs a further shift in value towards "applications," and away from "access," might be possible. On the other hand, naysayers will say the communications business has only so much room for content-centric approaches. At the end of the day, they argue, the quality of services, measured in terms of dropped calls performance, audio quality, access speed and so forth, plus service attributes, are far more important to the typical mobile user than "content" features.

So far, the naysayers have been largely correct. The issue is who, and where, this might not prove to be such an iron-clad rule. Disney hopes to find out.