Apple Sales Explode: It's a Cloud Computing Effect

Among the conclusions one might draw from the explosion of Apple market share in the U.S. PC market--in February 2008 Macs got 14 percent unit share and 25 percent dollar share--is that the "Web" really is becoming a computing utility. The results are drawn from a survey of buyers by NPD Group.

As more things can be done "in the cloud," the operating system of the access device matters less. To use an analogy, we aren't yet to the point of simple mobile phones, where most features except for subscriber identity are properties of the network.

We more nearly are in a position analogous to smart phones, however, where some important functionality resides locally, and much is in the network.

If you like, think about PC use pre-Web or pre-local area networks. Initially, with the exception of connection to a printer, a wide area network connection was not necessary to derive value from a PC. Later, as more PCs appeared in the workplace, it became necessary to connect PCs locally.

Operating system mattered greatly, in those applications. Once people started to interconnect over the wide area network, though, things began to change. Obviously one needed the "right" physical interface to support a dial-up modem service. But beyond that the PC operating system begins to matter less.

The wide area network is designed to work transparently to edge devices, so long as the wide area network transmission protocols and interfaces are supported.

That's what is starting to happen with computing applications and services--and video and audio plus multimedia content now are computing applications. The details of edge devices will matter less once "networked" applications take firmer hold.

To use another analogy, consider televisions. The internal details are unimportant so long as the communications interfaces are standard. A TV must tune to standard NTSC signals now, and then HDTV formats in 2009. The display technology must render those pictures properly. Other than that, the details of device operation don't matter.

That perhaps is one reason buyers now are more free to buy Macs, and abandon the Microsoft operating system: OS choices aren't so important now as more value is drawn from the network.

Pacific Crest Securities analyst Andy Hargreaves says the latest NPD results represent 60 percent Apple unit growth and 67 percent revenue growth over the same period one year ago.

At the same time, overall U.S. PC retail shipments grew just nine percent on a five percent increase in revenues.

Apple saw particular strength in notebook systems, which rose 64 percent in units and 67 percent in revenues, suggesting strong sell-through of the company's new MacBook Air, a device specifically designed to rely on the Web and Internet more extensively than a typical machine.

Apple also saw robust demand for its desktop systems, which grew 55 percent on a 68 percent increase in revenues, compared to the overall retail segment which saw unit sales decline of five percent on a two percent drop in revenues.

Of course, Apple design smarts and the spillover glow from the iPod and iPhone probably are enticing buyers who might not have considered a Mac before.

But users wouldn't be doing so unless they were convinced their computing experience won't not be disrupted unnecessarily. One reasons for that greater level of confidence is simply that much of that experience now hinges on access to the Web and Internet.

700 MHz: No Big Surprise

As most observers probably would have bet, Verizon won the C block while at&t won hundreds of local licenses to augment the 700 MHz spectrum it already owns. Those two developments arguably were the most-likely outcomes all along.

EchoStar, though, won enough E block spectrum to create a nearly-national footprint as well. What it plans to do with that spectrum isn't so clear at this point. There isn't enough spectrum in that block to run WiMAX or probably even Long Term Evolution protocols with any kind of loading.

Many argue that slice of spectrum is best suited to mobile video delivery.

31% Smart Phone Sales by 2013

The market for smartphones will grow from around 10 percent of the total handset market in 2007 to 31 percent of the market in 2013, say researchers at ABI Research.

Fueling he growth: carrier interest in boosting data revenues and the migration of advanced “smart” operating systems down into middle tier devices.

Mobile Walled Garden? No Way

Mobile phone owners already are partially outside mobile operator content walled gardens, a new survey by ABI Research suggests. And there is no reason to believe this trend is not a permanent feature of the mobile content and applications business.

The 14 percent of respondents who said they use their phone to watch video was split nearly evenly between those who watch video from websites such as YouTube (35 percent), from their own carrier’s video offering (31 percent), and from video they sideload onto their mobile devices (28 percent).

The leading source of music files on a mobile phone was ripped CDs and sideloading onto the phone (48 percent of mobile-music listening respondents), while over one third of music-listening respondents (35 percent) purchased music through their carriers.

As an example, today’s mobile consumer is more likely to watch a video from YouTube on his or her phone than a video from the carrier’s own service, but is more than twice as likely to get ringtones from the carrier than from any other source.

“Perhaps more with the mobile phone than any other consumer electronics device, content is obtained from a variety of sources,” says research director Michael Wolf. “This shows that despite the strong control most carriers retain over the network, their control over the mobile content ecosystem remains limited. The consumer will see more and more options for obtaining rich media in the future.”

In the mobile business, as in the video, music, voice and Internet businesses, closed and walled garden business models are learning to live side by side with the open models of the Web. It isn't clear whether, in the future, all content will flow "over the top."

At some point, if it is possible for consumers to grab the content they want, when they want it--and business relationships with content owners are just as important as physical bandwidth in that regard--then we will see a serious test of the dominance of "packaged" distribution such as cable TV, broadcast TV or telco voice.

Email Overload?

Are business users drowning in unwanted email or not? Some observers argue they are, and also say the overload is harming productivity. A typical analysis might be that a half hour a day is wasted when people have to deal with unwanted email. Over an eight-hour working day, that's 1/16 of total time at work. For a person earning $100,000, that's an annual loss of $6,250.

The countervailing view is that managing email is no more a "time waster" than socializing around the office, and might have positive value to the extent that all business is social, and that relationship building and maintenance of those relationships.

Granted, email can be chore if a user feels compelled to respond to every message. But there's no reason to respond to most messages, some would argue. Instead, email is part of a flow of communications and information that streams past a person, providing context on what other people one works with think is important.

Recognizing the pattern is the key thing, not "responding" to all messages in the flow. It's a little like "Twitter" streams, Real Simple Syndication feeds or Facebook updates. One doesn't have to respond to the updates. But the updates can have value.

The issue is whether "information overload" is a problem or an opportunity. Providers of unified communications capabilities obviously see the management of message streams as an opportunity; a chance to solve the inefficiency of missed, delayed or repeated communication attempts.

Where a company's cost structure or revenue streams are involved, "inefficient" communications are a problem. In other cases, maybe not. When information is a stream of messages about the state of one's environment, maybe not. The "problem" exists to a large extent only in compulsive response, or inordinate attention to, the flow of data.

The same might be said of other "interruptions" of one's work. To a point, pings from co-workers do "interrupt" the specific tasks any particular person has. On the other hand, to the extent that organizations are social, "interruptions" are part of the collaboration process. To the extent that business value grows from collaboration, "interruptions" simply are part of the collaborative process. So is collaboration wasted time? Hardly.

Online Content Use Up, Across All Age Groups

Online content is getting more attention from users in every age category, says Burst Media.

Overall, 59.6 percent of respondents to a recent survey report they are visiting more Web sites in a typical week than they were one year ago, say researchers at Burst Media. And the trend holds in all age segments.

In fact, 62.8 percent of respondents 55 years and older say they are visiting more sites today in a typical week of web surfing than they were one year ago.

Local and national news is the most popular content consumed online with half of respondents regularly seeking it out. Still, there are differences in the types of content consumed by age segments.

Among respondents 18 to 34 years of age, entertainment information (44.7 percent) is the most regularly sought online content, followed by: local or national news (40.1percent), online games (38.1 percent), shopping or product information (36.1 percent) information for work (35.0 percent), and online communities such as social networks, forums and blogs (31.4 percent).

Local or national news (54.2 percent) is the most popular online content for respondents 35 to 54 years of age. Other types of online content sought by respondents 35 to 54 years of age include shopping or product information (44.8%), information for work (42.7 percent), health information (37.1 percent), entertainment information (37 percent), and travel information (33.7 percent).

Local or national news is by far the most popular online content for respondents 55 years and older. About 56 percent of respondents in this segment saying they regularly seek such information online.

Shopping and product information (44 percent) is the second most popular type of content sought and is closely followed by health information (42.5 percent).

Other types of content sought include: international news (38.9 percent), travel information (38.2 percent), and food information/recipes (34.1 percent).

Two-thirds (67.7 percent) of respondents say their daily routine would be disrupted if their Internet access was taken away and not available for one week.

About 43 percent say such a loss would be "significantly" disruptive.

And Web access is disruptive for every age group. In fact, among respondents 55 years and older, 44 percent say their daily life would be significantly disrupted if they were unable to access the Internet.

Internet access now has become an essential service, it appears, like voice, text and video entertainment.

Opera Mini for Helio Ocean

Opera's Opera Mini mobile browser now is available for the first time in the U.S.market as a mobile service provider on-deck option. Helio users can surf the Web with Opera Mini on their Ocean devices using Opera Mini that has been specially-tailored for the Ocean handset.

Available as a downloadable application from Helio's Web portal, Opera Mini is touted as providing a desktop-like experience with fast response.