Amazon Kindle Fire First Tablet to Challenge Apple iPad?

Amazon's Kindle Fire might be the first "tablet" to get serious traction, other than Apple's iPad. In fact, Evercore Partners' analyst Robert Cihra now estimates the Kindle Fire will represent half of all Android tablet sales in 2012.

Shipments of Android-based tablets are expected to jump from 19 million to 20 million units in 2011 to 44 million to 45 million units in 2012, Digitimes says. 


Some might quibble, arguing that the Kindle Fire is an e-reader, not a tablet. But you might remember Apple CEO Steve Jobs insisting 10 inch screens were a minimum requirement for tablets. Amazon will own 50% of Android tablet market in 2012


IHS iSuppli said Friday that the Kindle Fire is expected to take second place in the global media tablet business in the fourth quarter, behind Apple's iPad. 

Amazon will ship 3.9 million Kindle Fire tablets during the last three months of 2011, according to a preliminary projection from iSuppli.Amazon Kindle Fire sales

Mobile Wallet: Consumers Are Hesitant, For Good Reason

A new survey by Compete suggests most consumers are not yet inclined to use mobile wallet services, despite apparent awareness of around two thirds of respondents. 


About two thirds of people who use debit cards and credit cards say they aren’t planning to start anytime soon. Just seven percent of banking consumers indicated that they would be very or extremely likely to start using their phone or tablet to make a bill payment. 


About five percent of banking consumers said they would be likely to start using their mobile device to make a deposit. Most also say they aren’t likely to start using their mobile device to make a point-of-sale purchase.


None of that should be surprising. Consumers need a clear value proposition, and it still isn't clear that has been established. Mobile Wallet: Consumers Are Hesitant Few wallet services have been able to fully develop the features they believe will clearly add significant value for consumers, and few retailers are able to support those features, either. 


Beyond that, few consumers actually are able to use near field communications, for example, since their current devices are not equipped to do so. 

Although current use and intended adoption rates for mobile services are low, once consumers adopt mobile financial or money services and start using their phone as a mobile wallet, they use the services frequently, the survey also shows. Some 16 percent of consumers using "Mobile tap and pay" do so daily and another 36 percent use it weekly. A full 87 percent of consumers using mobile couponing do so at least once a month.


There is one important element to keep in mind for any brand-new service such as mobile wallets, namely that it usually is quite impossible for end users to understand or to quantify their possible use of a product they have not yet experienced. 


Apple, for example, has not had a history of conducting market research about any of its new products, on the theory that consumers cannot really describe their possible use of a product they never have seen.

How Steve Jobs Influenced Google

Steve Jobs apparently gave Larry Page, Google CEO, some advice recently:

"We talked a lot about focus. And choosing people. How to know who to trust, and how to build a team of lieutenants he can count on. I described the blocking and tackling he would have to do to keep the company from getting flabby and being larded with B players. The main thing I stressed was focus. Figure out what Google wants to be when it grows up. It's now all over the map. What are the five products you want to focus on? Get rid of the rest, because they're dragging you down. They're turning you into Microsoft. They're causing you to turn out products that are adequate but not great."

How Steve Jobs Influenced Google's Restructuring

New Apple TV Coming?

Rumored Apple television Would have to "think different."

Apple might be working on a television, the Steve Jobs biography apparently indicates.

“He very much wanted to do for television sets what he had done for computers, music players, and phones: make them simple and elegant,” author Walter Isaacson writes.

Such an effort would likely have to integrate content sources, create some sort of navigation system and then dispense with awkward and cryptic remote controls.

You'd probably want to use a standard-issue iPhone or iPad, for example. But if Apple follows the example of earlier disruptions, the Apple effort would include a significant content delivery mechanism. It was iTunes that made the iPod, the App Store that made the iPhone, Apps that made the iPad.

And since the whole point of TV is to "watch stuff," any new Apple initiative would have to include a content store of some sort, not simply integration of various input sources.

Jobs's final plan: an ‘integrated’ Apple TV

Sprint says iPhone 4S Isn't Congesting the Network

Sprint says reports that the Apple iPhone 4S is causing congestion on Sprint's network are in error.

"As always, Sprint is carefully monitoring the performance of the 3G network," Sprint said. "We are looking into a small number of reports of slow data speeds when using the iPhone 4S."

All speed tests are subject to handset performance, time of day and physical location and obstructions. And some tests have suggested that Sprint's 3G network, which supports iPhone devices, is not the fastest.

Sprint says iPhone 4S Isn't Slowing Access

The iPad Is Cannibalizing Macs, PCs, Smart Phones

Apple CEO Tim Cook says Apple is seeing iPad sales cannibalize Mac sales to some degree. Of course, he also argues tablets are cannibalizing PC sales, which most people intuitively might guess is happening. To the extent that consumers have to choose between spending money on a new smart phone or a tablet, one would guess there is some shift of spending towards tablets as well.

It isn't that the tablet displaces a smart phone in terms of function, but only that tablets are the new "hot" consumer gadget, compared to smart phones.

“Yes, we’re seeing cannibalization," Cook says. "Some people are electing to buy an iPad rather than a Mac."

"However, I think a larger percentage are choosing iPad over a Windows-based PC," he says.

iPad Is Eating Mac Sales

Bearish View of The Smart Phone Business

Here's a bearish view about the smart phone business. Microsoft and Apple are extracting royalty payments from Google Android suppliers, squeezing their margins.

Apple missed targets for iPhone sales and sales of Research In Motion’s BlackBerry have "collapsed," not to mention the recent multi-day global outage.

Analysts may argue that the rise of products like powerful tablets have hurt smart phone sales. Some of us think that is partly true. Tablet sales have grown much faster than did sales of Apple iPhones or iPods.

So attention now has been diverted to tablets, to some extent. But Mary Meeker, Kleiner Perkins Caufield Byers partner doesn't appear to share the pessimism.

But lower-cost smart phones now are about to pour onto the market, and the high penetration of mobiles means there still is a huge replacement market.

The Smartphone Business Loses Its Luster

Apple earnings miss

As usual, investors had high expectations for Apple quarterly earnings, especially after smashing iPhone sales records. 


But Apple missed expectations today. Apple reported third-quarter earnings of $7.05 a share, on revenue of $28.3 billion. Analysts, on average, expected Apple to earn $7.22 a share on revenue of $29.5 billion.

Apple has not missed earnings forecasts since the second quarter of 2002, according to FactSet data.


It might be too early to say Apple already has begun its descent from its heights under Steve Jobs. Some say there is no worry. Others say it will be a few years until people notice something is different. 


Skeptics might say things already are different. 

Steve Wozniak Is “A Little Afraid” About The Future Of Apple

Apple co-founder Steve Wozniak says he is “a little afraid about the future of Apple” even though “it could go positive.” Some of his concerns are based on Apple’s iPhone 4S product demo. Watch the video.


If you believe Steve Jobs really was a highly-unusual CEO, with a very-unusual way of approaching product development, that is a rational concern. 

He says the company talked about its dual-core processor, but “Steve doesn’t want us to think about dual-core processors, all we need to know is how do we get our answer, how do we connect to the internet… Human things, not technical things.” 


He also says he doesn’t want Apple to go the way Sony went in its products. Steve Wozniak Is “A Little Afraid” About The Future Of Apple 

Steve Jobs Plans: How Far Do They Go?

Apple Inc. co-founder Steve Jobs reportedly left behind plans for four more years worth of Apple products when he died last week.

The Daily Mail reported over the weekend that Jobs worked for the last year of his life on a plan for more products to ensure his Cupertino company's success after his death.

The report cites unnamed Apple sources who said that while he knew his end was near, Jobs was outlining new versions of the iPad, iPhone, iPods and Macbooks, as well as working on iCloud, the automatic remote backup of photos, music and other files.

Apple does not pre-announce what it is working on, so those reports, though having the ring of authenticity, do not make clear whether Apple now has plans only to tweak its existing products, or whether there is some additional roadmap for products that could create whole new markets, something Steve Jobs uniquely was able to do.

That's the big issue for Apple. Its ability to manage its current business is not really in doubt. The issue is whether Apple in the future can create additional brand new markets without Steve Jobs. You might use the analogy of Disney. It has a profitable business long after its founder, Walt Disney, died. But you might also note that much of its recent success is due to ownership of the ABC network and its properties, such as ESPN.

It is harder to see how Disney, without Walt Disney, has "created" and "innovated" in quite the same way without Walt Disney.

Steve Jobs left plans for more from Apple

Intel "Ultrabooks": Not the Way Apple Would Approach a New Category

It remains to been seen whether Intel actually can create yet another segment in the mobile device category, but it is going to try with its new "ultrabook" approach to PCs. If ultrabooks fail, it won’t be for lack of research. Intel has long studied what people want in future computer chips and computing devices. 


In 2009 the company decided to take a different approach with a project focused on the idea of "performance." Some might think that is too much a focus on speeds and feeds. Intel will argue the idea of performance actually extends beyond "speeds and feeds."


The notable contrast is that although most executives would take comfort in extensive research, it is the diametrical opposite of what Apple traditionally has done, which is decide what people need, even when they cannot explain it to you, and then build products that address unarticulated needs.


Some will suggest that there is not enough here to create a new category of high-performance PCs. They might say it is just a "Macbook Air."


Why People Will Want Ultrabooks

Samsung aims to block iPhone 4S sales in Italy, France

Samsung plans to file patent infringement claims against Apple’s new iPhone 4S and stop it from being sold in France and Italy, the latest move in a wide-ranging commercial dispute around patent infringement that also includes Apple suing to block the sale of the Galaxy Tab 10.1 in Australia on grounds that it violated Apple’s patents.


Apple has refused settlement offers with Samsung in hopes of blocking the Tab 10.1′s Australian launch altogether.

Some of us would continue to say that though there are legitimate issues of intellectual property protection, the patent process itself shows severe signs of misuse. Some would argue business success ought to emerge from decisions made by consumers, not lawyers, and that this increasingly seems not to be the case.

Samsung aims to block iPhone 4S sales in Italy, France

New Features for Apple iOS 5, Due Oct. 12, 2011

Though it will be overshadowed today by news about the iPhone 4S and delay of iPhone 5, Apple's latest version of iOS 5 arrives on October 12, 2012.

New support for digital publications, Twitter integration and notifications are among the features.

10 Features Coming To iOS 5

Apple will launch iPhone 4S today, not iPhone 5

Apple apparently will launch the new iPhone 4S today. That might not be the biggest news, because many had expected an iPhone 5 launch. The 4S features an 8-megapixel camera with “enhanced optics” and “more definitive GPS features,” Apple says.

Apple will launch the iPhone 4S today

Should Amazon Buy Palm?

Amazon is rumored to be in “serious negotiations to buy Palm assets from HP. Some will question whether this makes sense for Amazon. Palm's webOS has been highly regarded, but has failed to get market traction.

Whether Amazon could do better, or whether it should not simply continue to use Android, are legitimate questions. But some might argue most of the value is in Palm's intellectual property portfolio.

And that could be important if Amazon believes it will, in the future, be competing with Apple, not with Barnes & Noble or eBay. As recent events have shown, IP ownership is crucial in the new mobile business.

Amazon's interest in Palm

Why it is So Hard to Innovate Like Apple

Those of you who work inside larger enterprises will appreciate the sentiment that virtually no companies innovate the way Apple does. And even Apple might regress towards the mean in five years or so.

"While driving our new Acura RDX the other day (and trying to find something via the navigation system), my partner and I both looked at each other and said, "When will Apple make a car? They'd get it right," says Jack Aaronson, The Aaronson Group CEO.

"We say the same thing about cable TV interfaces, wishing that Apple TV would finally become a higher priority for Apple. We say the same thing looking at the new slew of Android phones, and are frustrated that Google has chosen to emulate Microsoft's way of designing software instead of Apple's," he says.

Most of you who work in larger enterprises will appreciate the many subtle, and not so subtle ways business-relevant innovation can be stifled. Those of you who work at small organizations will face equally-substantial obstacles, but for different reasons. Bigger organizations have the resources to innovate in relevant ways, but typically have human obstacles to doing so. Smaller organizations often have the will, but not the resources.

If innovation were really easy, more firms would be clearly recognized as outstanding in that regard. Innovation, no less than anything else in the real world, appears to be a "Bell Curve."

Innovate or Get Out of the Way

Google Faces Antitrust Scrutiny, Will Apple Be Next?

AT&T isn't the only major player facing a direct limitation on its ability to grow much bigger in its core markets. Google might be next. Google CEO Eric Schmidt will face a U.S. Senate hearing on Sept. 21, 2011 looking at whether the company is now so large and dominant that it now constitutes a monopoly.

The primary issue in this hearing is whether Google gives preference to its own websites or products in search results. History suggests Google might be a turning point of sorts.

In March 1998, Microsoft CEO Bill Gates faced a similar hearing. Two months later Microsoft was served with an antitrust suit, the effects of which only fully ended in 2010, some would argue. That's more than a decade of handcuffs.

A rational observer with a sense of history might wonder when it will be Apple's turn to meet the regulatory buzzsaw. Sooner or later, big and powerful technology and application companies run into the reality of government regulation. Telcos just are more used to it.

Google facing antitrust limits

What Apple Knows, and Why "Choice" is an Issue

"Too much choice" can be as bad as "not enough choice." Ironically, having some choices generally is viewed as a positive by most consumers. But overwhelming choice is paralyzing. Those of you familiar with the Class 5 switch, and the modern business phone system, know something of the matter. Both types of switches offer hundreds to thousands of discrete features. But most end users, business or consumer, use only a handful of features.

You might wonder why suppliers both to add all those generally unused features. The reason is that a few key customers say they "need them." See Choice can be a problem or choice can paralyze

Apple always has taken one approach to features, while Microsoft and the "open source" communities generally have taken a different approach. For decades, developers have argued for and against unlimited choice or "openness." At the moment, it appears Apple's choices might be winning the argument.

When Google Android developers complain of "fragmentation," that's a downside, or problem, with "open" approaches. Apple always has taken the other view. It limits openness, limits choices, in order to enhance user experience. Where an open source or Microsoft approach is "you can do that," Apple essentially asks "why do you need to do that?" 

With so many projects, if the customer is willing to go without a small subset of the functionality they think they need, it can save a massive amount of effort, cost, and complexity and result in a much more elegant, hassle-free solution that makes them much happier in the long run, some would now argue.

Apple’s customers are often the sort of people willing to make these tradeoffs, because that’s how most of Apple’s products are designed: if you can compromise on some of the features and capabilities you think you need, you can get a product that works better and makes you happier with far less aggravation. And for most people, the benefits will outweigh the missing features.

Granted, there are trade-offs, as there always are in all engineering projects. “We know what’s best for you," Apple essentially says.

People who aren’t willing or able to compromise on their needs regularly are much more likely to be Windows customers. The Windows message is much more palatable to corporate buyers, committees, middlemen, and people who don’t like to be told what’s best for them.

But the world seems to be moving a bit more in Apple's direction. 

Apple might have it right

There is an iPad Market, "Tablet Market" Has to be Created

So far, one might argue there is not an actual "tablet" market, but only an "iPad" market.

RBC Capital's Mike Abramsky sponsored a survey conducted by ChangeWave that found 85 percent of all tablet buyers plan to buy the iPad.

That doesn't mean an actual "tablet market" will fail to develop, just that it hasn't really emerged, so far. That isn't the case in the smart phone market, where Apple is a major contestant, but not the only significant competitor in a broader "smartphone market."

RBC Capital's Mike Abramsky has raised his fourth quarter iPhone and iPad estimates based on the results of a survey of 2,200 potential buyers. The survey, conducted in August by ChangeWave research, showed what Abramsky called "unprecedented iPhone 5 demand and strong back-to-school iPad buying intentions."

Abramsky says 31 percent of those surveyed said they were "very or somewhat likely" to buy the iPhone 5, significantly exceeding pre-launch iPhone 4 demand (25 percent).

With the iPhone 4 nearly 15 months old, 66 percent of existing iPhone users are very likely or somewhat likely to buy the iPhone 5.

About 54 percent of surveyed Sprint subscribers and 53 percent of surveyed T-Mobile subscribers say they are "significantly likely" or "somewhat more likely" to buy the iPhone, if available.

'Unprecedented' demand for Apple's iPhone 5

Will Apple be King of Payments?

"Apple has revolutionized how we consume music, mobile applications, and media, in general. I fully expect them to revolutionize the retail experience, too," says Michael Koploy, Software Advice ERP market analyst.

"If Apple can revolutionize the point of sale, consumers will use their iPhone for retail checkout." That is the trick, isn't it?

"In the process, I think they will come to own a huge chunk of the payments industry," says Koploy. "We think Apple has a chance to own the later opportunity by acting as a merchant services provider."

"Consumers won’t care who’s processing the transaction or earning fees," he argues. It's true that consumers won't care. But retailers will care, as well the existing issuers of credit cards and debit cards, as well as the card associations, especially Visa and MasterCard.

From the outside, it always seems to be logical that a new provider, offering a new experience, ought to be able to change the payments experience. Starbucks perhaps is the best current example of that, in a retail setting.

But consumer desire, though necessary, is not sufficient to drive a change, as it is the retailers who also have to decide such a change in technology and experience benefits them as well. In the past, modifications of the point of service terminals have run as much as $200 per terminal, a capital investment retailers would rather not make.

The other issue is whether any new payment scheme can offer lower transaction costs for retailers. Apple might hope to do so, but has to be aware that the issuing banks and payment networks are not going to stand idly by and allow Apple to erode current industry revenues.

Apple has to be considered one of the more fearsome potential disruptors. But disruption in the payments industry is far harder than it typically appears.

Some of us might guess that Apple could play a bigger role not in the actual payments revenue stream, but as a provider of new value to ecosystem participants. In other words, Apple's biggest success could come not as a replacement for current methods, but as a partner to most of the ecosystem, including end users, retailers, banks and settlement networks.

Why Apple is Poised to Become the Future King of Payments