Saturday, May 3, 2008
BroadSoft Targets Mobility, Web
The trio of moves might be viewed in several ways. Most significantly they reflect BroadSoft's belief that the next wave of growth will come from mobile applications and integration of core communications capabilities with all manner of Web and enterprise applications.
At some level the moves also signal that the significance of hosted communications is not limited to replacing legacy Centrex or phone systems, but is part of a larger move towards more sophisticated communications capabilities for many, if not most, Web and enterprise applications.
It's a tough market to quantify, but looking at the size of unified communications services is a part of the whole picture. Ultimately, some communications service revenue will shift from existing categories to "Web enabled" categories.
Beyond that, some of the value will be intangible, such as "stickiness" leading to lower churn or higher ad revenues. Over the near term, unified communications "revenue" will be hard enough to quantify. Web-based rich communications will be even tougher.
"The full-blown developers program and an online marketplace will enable service providers and end users to download applications that integrate BroadWorks with a wide range of productivity, personal, and social applications," says Joe McGarvey, Current Analysis principal analyst.
While the transformation of services to IP presents opportunity for BroadSoft, it also creates challenges. While the company is well-recognized as a leading provider of enhanced VoIP applications, its application suite is also considered by some service providers to be overkill for residential services, says McGarvey.
At the low end of the application server market, BroadSoft faces significant challenges from traditional telecommunications equipment makers, e.g., Alcatel-Lucent, Thomson/Cirpack, MetaSwitch and Sonus.
McGarvey says it will be important for BroadSoft to capture the middle ground of the application server market, where service providers are looking for some enhanced features but do not require the complexity of applications associated with PBX replacement.
To be successful in this space, BroadSoft needs to move down the complexity curve than it is for challengers to move up, McGarvey says.
To be sure, BroadSoft now finds itself challenged by a new set of competitors, including softswitch providers, which have been gradually increasing the breadth and sophistication of their Class 5 application offerings.
Ultimately, market success might not be as dependent on unique features as on ability to make those features available widely on mobile, Web and enterprise applications.
T-Mobile and Sprint: A Transformative Acquisition
Up to this point AT&T, Verizon Wireless and Sprint Nextel have held roughly equal shares of the market, and all three have had more than twice the market share of T-Mobile.
There are many regulatory, technical and even psychological issues to surmount, though.
Consider that T-Mobile and Sprint now operate three classic mobile air interfaces. Xohm will create a fourth. And then there's Long Term Evolution. Complexity means cost, and that's t0o many different networks to continue operating.
Still, Sprint's low stock price and strong Euro have to be driving some hard thinking about the feasibility of pulling such a merger together. Regulatory or other concerns might ultimately deter making of an offer, or scuttle a merger attempt.
But it would be a transformative move for T-Mobile.
VOD: First You Have to Find It
In a parallel but almost-perfect metaphor, paper "viewing guides" have become dysfunctional. Even in the walled garden, linear programming, one screen world, there's just too much information, and too many choices, to display. And that means content isn't found.
Those of you who use the Netflix or Blockbuster DVD rental services, or simply try to find something to watch online, will understand the greater problems beyond linear-formatted TV. Search engines are helpful to the extent of locating pieces of content.
Even in the walled garden, linear viewing world there are new efforts to aid the discovery process. ReelzChannel is a "media highlights" channel showing movie and TV clips, commentary and content-focused news.
The channel's research suggests its viewers purchase 24 percent more pay-per-view titles than non-viewers.
Also, in a recent study, 76 percent of users said they found out about a movie they had never heard of by watching the channel. About 21 percent watched a movie on premium services because of something they had seen on ReelzChannel. Another 16 percent ordered video-on-demand or pay-per-view titles, the company says.
Some 87 percent of those polled say ReelzChannel's “What2Watch“ promos were helpful when making a viewing decision.
Friday, May 2, 2008
Dead Company Watch
There always are periods of consolidation after big investment waves, and we are at the front of a winnowing process that already has claimed Pulvermedia and Verso.
Similar contraction cycles hit venture-funded CLEC and Internet firms between 2001 and 2003. Now it is VoIP's turn.
The next cycle, which will not begin for some time, is a similar weeding process for consumer-focused video start-ups.
O2 to Blanket UK with Broadband
O2 can do so because BT has created a separate business unit that sells wholesale broadband access to any retailer that wants to use it. The U.S. policy framework took a different route, and relies on vigorous competition between the local cable and telephone companies.
One might argue we'd see faster uptake, but less innovation using the functional separation model. Conversely, slower diffusion but more differentiation using the U.S. model. There are different benefits.
After a slower start, it looks as though access speeds and "price per megabit" propositions, plus managed services wrapped around the access, are finally starting to get interesting in the U.S. market.
Mobile TV: It Isn't About the Small Screen
Some observers might argue that most mobile users do not really want to watch TV on their handsets all that badly. Others might argue they'd like to, but the small screen or shortened battery life are barriers. Some would say the logical use is short form video to fill interstitial time, not long-form content or TV shows. Others will say people don't want to pay as much as carriers now charge.
All these objections have some merit. But what might be most significant is the limited amount of linear content people can get.
AT&T's new video service will deliver 10 television channels for a fee of $15 a month.
AT&T Mobile TV will be available in 58 markets including Atlanta, Chicago, Los Angeles and New York.
Two handsets are available immediately, the LG Vu, which sells for $299.99, and the Samsung Access, which sells for $199.99.
Observers often note that a typical TV viewer only watches about seven channels. The problem is that every person uses a different mix of seven channels. And that's the issue for AT&T and Verizon.
AT&T Mobile TV delivers CBS Mobile, Comedy Central, ESPN Mobile TV, Fox Mobile, MTV, NBC 2Go, NBC News 2Go, Nickelodeon, Sony Pictures and CNN Mobile Live.
And the end of the day, all the other objections likely can be overcome. The basic objection, though, is that people will want access to their favorite channels. That value proposition makes sense to 96 percent of all households.
What people won't want is to pay for is channels they don't really watch. Cable TV succeeded because it gave consumers more choice. Mobile TV today is lagging precisely because it doesn't provide enough choice.
Nokia, T-Mobile Enhance Mobile Web
The two companies also saythey will work on making social network sites more mobile, and will cooperate on creating mobile widgets to create a “richer” user experience for T-Mobile’s web’n’walk service.
A couple of angles: Nokia supports its own content portal; T-Mobile, despite that possible conflict, needs Nokia to optimize handsets for web'n'walk. That's co-opetition, to be sure: competing and collaborating all at the same time.
Directv-Dish Merger Fails
Directv’’s termination of its deal to merge with EchoStar, apparently because EchoStar bondholders did not approve, means EchoStar continue...
-
We have all repeatedly seen comparisons of equity value of hyperscale app providers compared to the value of connectivity providers, which s...
-
It really is surprising how often a Pareto distribution--the “80/20 rule--appears in business life, or in life, generally. Basically, the...
-
One recurring issue with forecasts of multi-access edge computing is that it is easier to make predictions about cost than revenue and infra...