Qwest 12 Mbps, 20 Mbps is Resonating

Of the 90,000 the net additions Qwest had for high-speed access in the most recent quarter, 13,000 (14 percent) of them were related to the new fiber-to-the-node build-out. You might think, "so what?"

Those customers were gotten in just 30 days, in the last month of the quarter, so it appears there is strong demand for a higher-speed (12 Mbps or 20 Mbps) product.

Qwest also appears to be readying an "over the top" video on demand service in conjunction with DirecTV, which already supplies Qwest linear entertainment video services. That would make perfect sense for both companies. DirecTV needs more bandwidth on the ground to serve up an effective VOD service, and Qwest has the bandwidth.

Qwest also has been an effective retail partner for DirecTV services, so the any new offer would make sense to consumers who already buy DirecTV from Qwest.

"We are hopeful to take advantage of video on demand with our DirecTV," Mueller says. Qwest is "preparing for the natural synergies between their video on demand product to launch this year and our investment in broadband capabilities."

And high-speed access prices will rise. "We will do price increases, that is our plan," says CEO Ed Mueller. The logical path is to create higher-speed tiers and then charge more for them. People understand that sort of packaging.

Qwest Report "Steady" Results

Under the current challenging circumstances, "typical" or "normal" performance is a good thing. And Qwest Communications International reported "steady operating results" for the first quarter of 2008. Adjusted EBITDA totaled $1.14 billion with adjusted EBITDA margins of 33.6 percent as data, Internet and video revenue grew by nine percent compared to the first quarter of 2007.

Broadband subscriptions were up 17 percent year-over-year while video subscribers were up 42 percent, year over year. Total data, Internet and video services revenue now represents nearly 40 percent of operating revenue.

The business market segment reported revenue of $995 million in the first quarter, up 3.1 percent year over year as data and Internet revenue grew 6.9 percent. Data and Internet revenue grew 29 percent over the same period a year ago.

Mass markets revenue was $1.48 billion in the quarter, a 0.7 percent decline compared to the prior year. Data, Internet and video revenue growth of 20.7 percent was offset by declines in both voice and wireless services.

Consumer average revenue per unit increased 7.8 percent to $55 from $51 a year ago. Qwest Broadband subscribers increased 90,000 in the quarter to reach 2.7 million, up 17.2 percent from a year ago.

Wholesale Markets reported revenue of $841 million in the quarter, down seven percent year over year largely due to long-distance revenue pricing and supplier consolidation. Data and Internet revenue was up three percent year over year.

Vodafone U.K. Lowers Data Barriers

Vodafone UK has created a new plan that aims to remove the barrier to use of mobile email and mobile Web access, allowing 500 megabytes of data use each month on plans costing GBP 25 or more.

Postpaid customers who take a GBP 40 or higher package also will be offered a choice of unlimited text messages, unlimited landline calls or unlimited Vodafone to Vodafone calls, as well.
This move essentially sweeps away the last remaining cost barriers to entry for both mobile email and the mobile Internet, helping Vodafone UK to make mobile data more applicable to the mass market, says Emma Mohr-McClune, Current Analysis principal analyst.

The new plan will encourage more users to experiment with the mobile Internet. For customers who do not want the mobile data feature, Vodafone allows a monthly discount of GBP 5.

Standalone mobile data pricing currently runs about GBP 7.50 a month, Mohr-McClune says. "This is the first time" that a U.K. operator has offered bundled mobile Web access and email across its entire pay monthly portfolio, starting at GBP 25 per month.

French Broadband at 94% of Internet Users

One of the enduring claims observers make about the state of U.S. broadband is how woeful it is compared to other nations around the world. Consider France, which deregulated its telecommunications market in 2004, leading to heavy competition. In fact, broadband now is nearly synonymous with Internet use.

In March 2008, 93.5 percent of at-home Internet users in France enjoyed a broadband connection to the Internet, down slightly from the 94.2 percent who did so in the previous year. That's significant. The primary reason consumers buy broadband access is to use the Internet. Someday that will change, but right now broadband really is a way PCs can connect to the Internet.

So 94 percent of all home users of the Internet use broadband to do so. That's serious penetration. So note that about 52.4 percent of French homes had a broadband connection in 2007. That's a bit higher than U.S. broadband penetration, which is just about at 50 percent.

The point is that France has been highly successful at getting broadband adopted by Internet users. Fully 94 percent of all Internet users have broadband.

But note that household penetration is about 52 percent. There seem to be more dial-up users in the U.S. market than in France. But the point is worth noting: household penetration might not be the best way to measure penetration.

A household that doesn't use the Internet is hardly a candidate for broadband aimed at Internet users. The more relevant measure is how far broadband has penetrated homes where the Internet actually is used.

Apple iPhone Sales to Blow Through Roof?

As reported by Silicon Alley Insider, RBC analyst Mark Abramsky thinks Apple will sell 14 million phones this year, up 40 percent from his previous prediction of 10 million and more than eight times the 1.7 million phones the company sold in the first three months of the year. He also thinks Apple will sell 24 million iPhones in 2009.

The 3G model will help. So will new carrier deals in Europe and Asia, broader consumer interest thanks to Apple's forthcoming apps platform, and broader corporate interest.

He also thinks Apple might drop or reduce exclusivity requirements in some markets. This would let people buy iPhones without being forced to use Apple's hand-picked carrier partner.

He also thinks Apple will allow carriers to subsidize pricing, and also will allow sales of unlocked phones.

T-Mobile FINALLY Launches 3G

T-Mobile USA has taken the first commercial step in the roll-out of its third-generation (3G) wireless network, launching its UMTS/HSDPA network in New York City. Also, contrary to some early reports suggesting only voice service might be available immediately, the network will be data-enabled from the start.

T-Mobile plans to continue the rollout of its 3G network across major metropolitan markets through the year. By year's end, T-Mobile expects its high-speed data network will be available in those cities where a majority of its subscribers currently use data services.

Yay!

Femtocells: Technology or Business?

ABI Research projects that 100,000 femtocell units wll ship in 2008. Volume deployments won't begin until 2010, when $100 price points will be possible, in volume. The other issue is whether femtocells are embedded in other widely-used consumer gear, such as Wi-Fi routers.

The really critical issue will be whether initial carrier deployments are supported by robust business models and service plans that extend beyond pure fixed-mobile substitution goals,” says ABI Research vice president and research director Stuart Carlaw.

The issue there is that some innovations are very useful and widely deployed, but don't necessarily create a business model. Wi-Fi is the best example of that. So one has to wonder whether femtocells will wind up being a very-useful technology--reducing service provider investment in macrocells, for example--or whether a new revenue stream of some sort can be created.

The most obvious example would be enhanced ability fo wireless providers to compete effectively in the wireline substitution business, where the new revenue stream is cannibalization of fixed line subscriptions. The other obvious issue is ability to sell voice-optimized fixed line broadband subscriptions.