Microsoft Sees Big Future for Hosted Enterprise Email

Microsoft Corp. sees tens of millions of corporate e-mail accounts moving to its data centers over the next five years, Reuters news service reports. Consider that a vote in favor of "cloud computing" and hosted services.

Chris Capossela, Microsoft SVP, says he expects Microsoft to allow enterprises to choose between the more-traditional licensing model and a subscription-based service.

Exchange Online, the service offering for its Exchange mail and messaging server software, will be the primary application adopted by corporate customers, Capossela believes.

"In five years, 50 percent of our Exchange mailboxes will be Exchange Online," he predicts. Small-business specialist Cbeyond probably would agree. In its Atlanta market, its oldest market, Cbeyond is seeing 40 percent penetration of the hosted Exchange service it offers to small business customers.

According to research firm Radicati, Exchange will run about 210 million corporate e-mail accounts in 2008, growing to 319 million mailboxes in 2012.

16.3 Million Consumer VoIP Lines in Service

By the first quarter of 2008, 16.3 million consumer VoIP lines were in service, representing 13.8 percent of all U.S. households, and 27 percent of broadband households, say researchers at TeleGeography.

Those customers--80 percent or so--largely but not exclusively have been gained by cable companies, at the expense of the incumbent local telephone companies.

Since the start of 2005, the RBOCs have lost 17.3 million residential telephone lines, while VoIP service providers have gained 14.4 million new customers.

User-Surly Web Sites

Most Web sites are fairly user friendly these days. But every once in a while you encounter a site designed by people who seem to have no idea why people come to a site, and how they use them.

37 Signals notes a site where six different kinds of shoes were found in a “performance” category. When 40 uninvolved people were asked what “performance” meant to them, only 10 had even a vague idea.

Use "paths" when designing, 37 Signals says. "A path is a line that goes from a starting point A to an accomplishment B." That's what users want. That’s a path. "Where are your golf shoes?" is a path.

"Does my cell phone support international calling?" That’s a path as well.

"Collect all the paths you can think of in a pile, pull out the 8 paths that 80 percent of your visitors come looking for, and that’s your home page.

Blog Readership 67% of Internet Users by 2012

Blogs are a new form of media, but they are "media." The number of people creating blogs in the United States will reach over 35 million by 2012, roughly 16 percent of the Internet population, according to eMarketer. But as is the case for most forms of user-generated content, most people are content to watch, listen or read, rather than creating content themselves.

By 2012, more than 145 million people, 67 percent of the U.S. Internet population, will be reading blogs at least once a month. That is up from a readership of 94 million in 2007, or 50 percent of Internet users.

Paul Verna, eMarketer senior analyst, says "U.S. blog advertising will reach $746 million in 2012, up from $283 million in 2007."

Like podcasts, blogs tend to appeal to specific audiences. Accordingly, much of the demographic targeting that marketers work so hard to achieve in the mainstream media is already done for them.

U.S. Wireless Data $24.5 Billion in 2007

U.S. wireless customers spent $24.5 billion on data services in 2007, with usage growing 55 percent, says consultant Chetan Sharma.

Growth increased steadily through the year, with fourth-quarter 2007 data services revenues hitting $6.9B. At current rates, the only question is how much above $28 billion will be spent in 2008.

Fourth quarter data revenue was up 7.8 percent sequentially. Average revenue per user .declined by $0.81 and reversed the trend of overall ARPU uptick of the last two quarters, though.

Average voice ARPU declined by almost $1.50 while average data ARPU inched up by $0.68, Sharma says.

Verizon and AT&T grew annual data revenue 64 percent. Overall, the top carriers earn about 19.34 percent of total revenue.

Non-messaging data revenues continue to be in the 50 to 60 percent range of toal data revenues.

MID Movement Good for 4G

Asustek Computer will launch its Atom-based 8.9-inch Eee PC 901 in June 2008. Hewlett-Packard recently launched a Windows XP version of its Mini-Note 2133. Dell is said to be readying its own version of a mini-notebook. Given the popularity of Linux-based Eee devices, and the addition of XP-powered machines, a class of devices--"mobile Internet devices"--is being seeded into the market that are precisely the sort of new mobile-centric machines fourth-generation networks are poised to serve.

Chatter: Best Buy Buying Netflix?

It's just one of those rumors that pop up, possibly because an investment bank thinks it can drum up some business by convincing a company executive a deal makes sense. But there's chatter, says Henry Blodget, that Best Buy is looking at buying Netflix. Some investors think there might be fire where there's smoke, and pushed share of Netflix up six percent on higher volume May 16, 2008.

Given that Blockbuster is being persued by Circuit City, what gives? The logic behind each transaction is that a tighter integration of software and hardware is good for both businesses. Sony, with a mixed track record, used precisely that logic to get into the studio business. And Apple uses a similar approach for iTunes.

The issue, perhaps, is whether there is enough ability to integrate on-demand video and DVD rentals and sales with the rest of the consumer electronics retail business. That might be hard to envision.

Still, each retailer, like Wal-Mart and Target, already is in the video content sales business. Software drives hardware purchases; and hardware purchases create the demand for software sales.

But mergers, in either combination, might not be the most-efficient way to create additional value. Either Blockbuster or Circuit City could sell subscriptions, provide kiosk support or otherwise heighten its software profile without actually buying a partner.

Still, the rumor does point out the increasing retail involvement in on-demand, time-shifted video. VCRs, DVDs, iTunes players and video-compatible mobile devices all are ways consumers "watch what they want, when they want it."

And since major mass market retailers are customer touchpoints for the hardware and software sides of those experiences, move movement, if not these particular deals, will occur.