Don't Assume A Return to Normal

There's a reason for voice, data and video entertainment providers to be obsessive about how their consumers are behaving during the current recession. Presenting a customer with a chance to switch, to change behavior, is dangerous because the changes, once integrated into daily life, can become permanent.

"Don't assume a return to normal," John Quelch, Professor of Business Administration at Harvard Business School, warns. "The longer and deeper the recession, the more likely consumers will adjust their attitudes and behaviors permanently."

"Their coping mechanisms may become ingrained and define a new normal." More than that, the competitive landscape likely will have changed as well. One would expect to see mergers, acquisitions, company failures and launches that mean the post-recession market looks different than the pre-recession market.

That means buyers might be looking at all product offers with new eyes.

http://hbswk.hbs.edu/item/6139.html

FCC Asks for Advice on "Broadband Stimulus" Rules

The Federal Communications Commission is asking for comment on how to distribute broadband funding under the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009, commonly known as the "broadband stimulus" program.

The FCC has already established a separate docket for parties wishing to comment generally on a rural broadband strategy (GN Docket No. 09-29). The FCC now is seeking comment as part of its consultative role with the National Telecommunications and Information Administration (“NTIA”) and the Department of Agriculture’s Rural Utilities Service (“RUS”), the agencies that actually are charged with disbursing the funds.

The FCC specifically is seeking comment on five core terms and concepts:

The definition of "unserved area;"

The definition of "underserved area;"

The definition of "broadband;"

The non-discrimination obligations that will be contractual conditions of the Broadband Fund Opportunities Program ("BTOP") grants; and

The network interconnection obligation that will be contractual conditions of BTOP grants.

Comments are limited to these five specified items and are due on April 13, 2009 and should be submitted in GN Docket No. 09-40.

The comment period extends to April 13, 2009. That implies that no final rules can be issued by NTIA or RUS until May, since NTIA and RUS staffers will require time to read and digest the new input.

That in turn means the first third of the funds, which by statute must be released before the end of June, will require submission and awards over a roughly two-month period, at best, by agencies which never before have had to process, much less award, so much money in such a short time frame.

For better or worse, that suggests projects in the first round will be weighted to providers with enough "track record" that NTIA and RUS can reduce the risk of making awards to applicants that are not well placed to execute, that may squander the money or that may prove otherwise embarassing when later oversight reveals what actually happened, or didn't happen, with the awarded funds.

And though most observers probably think the funds are supposed to lead to deployment of new facilities, the statute is part of a "stimulus" package that is supposed to create jobs in the near term. That could lead to a situation where projects actually do not create facilities or make better use of facilities but rather mostly can be pitched as projects that create jobs related to those facilities and use of facilities. "Training" or "education," in other words, might play a bigger role than some think.

That isn't necessarily a bad thing if one assumes that a great deal of non-use is related to people not understanding what they can do with broadband and the Internet, or non-use by people who think they understand what they can do, but don't feel too comfortable using computers and software.

Permanent Changes After Recession?

It isn't yet clear how changes in consumer use of communications and entertainment might change on a more-permanent basis once the recession is over. So far, there has been little tangible evidence of significant behavioral change.

About the only measurable change I've been able to find is an increase--by about one percent--of mobile users on prepaid, rather than postpaid, wireless plans.

There might be more-permanent changes in the business market, though, such as wider adoption of open source software.

http://www.hitsearchlimited.com/news/999871/

Mobile Media Gains U.K. Ground

Some 81 percent of U.K. mobile media users access mobile media once a week with strong at-home, public transport and around town consumption, says Orange.

As you might expect, mobile is viewed as the most innovative and personal media channel compared to all other traditional and digital channels, Orange says.

Mobile media usage patterns differ greatly depending on a consumer's location, with the strongest usage of mobile media being in the home, where 67 percent of participants who used their mobile for email did so in their home and 56 percent used a mobile at home for mobile Internet browsing.

The average age for mobile media users is 36, and 81 percent of respondents said they use mobile media more than once a week, with 46 percent using it daily.

Men generally use mobile media more, although women are much more likely to use picture messaging.

The mobile internet pages viewed most often are search engines, email, news, music and film although, interestingly, a high proportion (55 percent) of people browse the mobile Internet with no specific agenda.

Mobile media users are very much open to mobile marketing, Orange maintains, with 70 percent of participants attracted by interactive marketing formats, with the most-popular forms of mobile marketing being click-through advertisements and voucher redemption codes.

Recession Barely Touches Cable Modem Subscribership

Only two percent of cable modem households report that they are "somewhat" or "very likely" to cancel their cable modem service in the next six months, a new study sponsored by the Cable & Telecommunications Association for Marketing suggests. Nearly 95 percent of cable modem households surveyed report that they plan to retain their cable modem service, despite current economic conditions.

Cable TV service likewise is showing similar strength despite the economic downturn, the study suggests. In fact, cable households have become more loyal to their TV service over the past three months, the study suggests. About 81 percent of respondents who have cable TV service or digital cable TV service report that they are "not at all likely" to cancel their cable TV service, compared to November 2008, when 71 percent of respondents indicated a similar certainty about keeping cable TV. In November 2008 just 77 percent of respondents with digital cable TV said they were so certain.they would keep digital cable.

One might draw several conclusions from the survey results. First, one might say that broadband Internet access now is a foundation service for users who buy it. Second, one might conclude that the traditional resilience of core communications and entertainment services has not changed in the current recession, the first where there has been mass adoption of wireless and broadband Internet access services.

Overall, lifestyles and buying habits are changing, though, the study also finds. Consumers report being likely to spend more time at home watching TV (35 percent) and less time doing activities outside the home. That "cocooning" suggests one reason why broadband and television might be so resistant to economizing moves.

More than half of U.S. households currently report doing less shopping (53 percent), eating out less (52 percent), going on fewer vacations (51 percent) and attending fewer concerts and theatre performances (50 percent) because of economic conditions.

Content is Not Always King, But "Sunday Ticket" is Close

But sometimes it makes a huge difference.

As part of a new four-year, $4 billion deal struck between DirecTV and the National Football League, DirecTV "Sunday Ticket" subscribers will now also have the option of getting any game streamed to their laptops.

It is the first time the NFL has licensed the online rights to its games. DirecTV says streaming will begin “no later than 2012."

The NFL, though, also won the right to create a new channel called “Red Zone Channel," to be launched in the next couple of years, that shows real-time highlights of NFL games that will be distributed on multiple media, including cable, satellite, online and mobile.

DirecTV executives have been adamant about retaining their exclusive deal for out-of-market games, believing (correctly) that in this particular case, exclusivity allows it to lure subscribers away from cable and other satellite TV companies.

Sports programming continually is cited by cable operators as a primary reason for continual rate hikes. The new NFL deal is more of the same, on that score.

Still, DirecTV does have a point. The only reason this particular subscriber would choose DirecTV over FiOS (someday soon that will be an option) is "Sunday Ticket."

So content might not be king. Some of us would argue, looking just at the amount of money consumers and businesses already spend, the communications is king. Still, content, if not king, can in some cases swing a subscriber choice from one provider to another.

http://www.paidcontent.org/entry/419-nfl-signs-new-4-billion-directv-deal-games-to-be-streamed-online/

Why "Net Neutraliity" is a Bad Idea

If no Internet service provider can give preference to any streams or protocols, it is not possible to create a service a user actually does want: the ability to give preference to voice streams when on a Skype call or conference, when watching a webcast or a movie.

It is understandable that some advocates worry about ISPs giving preference to their own streams over others. News: they already do. It's called "cable TV." The issue is whether an end user can prioritize certain protocols at certain times, to optimize their own experience.

Strict net neutrality, which allows no prioritization, or minimal traffic shaping to maintain overall user experience when a very small number of users are straining a network, also will prohibit any other "user friendly" forms of prioritization.

http://venturebeat.com/2009/03/23/netflix-were-not-slowing-our-streamsyet/