Is There a "Dumb Pipe" Business Model?

No question so occupies wired network service provider attention as the recrafting of the business model known as the "dumb pipe." In some ways, it is an unusual question, if only because virtually all retail service providers say that is the one way they will not plan to grow their businesses.

If anything, virtually every executive wants, where feasible, to "move up the value chain," adding more value and functionality, not less.

There are isolated examples of "dumb pipe" models, such as in Singapore, where a new wholesale-only network access company will sell service to all other retail providers. There are more examples of hybrid models, where a functionally separate wholesale entity provides services to all retail providers, but where actual ownership of the assets might remain with a former incumbent or new provider.

Virgin Media, for example, has at least considered offering other retail providers wholesale access to its access network, though company executives publicly deny a recent report that it has concrete plans to do so.

So wholesale is the only area where there might be some modicum of serious debate is over the role of wholesale services. And in most cases, the only reason wholesale is a subject of serious investigation is because regulatory authorities have forced service providers to operate in a robust wholesale environment leading to huge loss of market share.

That said, in most cases it quickly will become obvious that "dumb pipe" operations have to be managed just as any other element of the business, but cannot, in and of themselves, support all the current or future operations of a service provider business at a time when the current revenue base is eroding.

Whatever one might say, it seems generally clear that "dumb pipe" can be a business for a wholesale-only entity, but not so clearly, thus far, a retail operation. Even some firms that have tried the wholesale-only route typically wind up getting into their own retail operations as well.

So far, executive preferences notwithstanding, market experience tends to suggest there are some successful "dumb pipe" business models, primarily found in the wide area network backbone, where "capacity" is the product, and some limited evidence that wholesale-only access opportunities may exist where regulators require it.

So far, though, in the retail, end user business, dumb pipe has not yet proven to be sustainable.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2009/may/04/virgin-media-cable-network-internet

Who "Owns" Social Media?

Social media are just different. You can argue about who "owns" the content on YouTube, on blogs or Web sites in general. In a strict legal sense, you can come up with an answer.

In a broader sense, much "ownership" these days is shared. A particular site might "own" a certain piece of content. But creators can opt out and withhold their content. A company might own, in some sense, the content hosted on its site. That company might own the rights to monetize that content. But content creators also are provided "no incremental cost" rights to create their content. They also have the right to remove the whole site, at will.

So at some level, who "owns" it is not the question. To some real extent, all social media is a cooperative venture for everybody who wishes to contribute. No matter who "owns" a site, the value increasingly is created by the people who choose to contribute.

http://adage.com/digitalnext/post.php?article_id=136481

10% Annual Global Wireless, Broadband Growth to 2013

Wireless and broadband subscribers will grow at over 10 percent per year over the next five years, says TeleGeography, with a net 2.5 billion net new subscribers by the end of 2013.

But average revenue per user will grow more slowly, at a five percent annual rate, in large part because the bulk of the new customers will be gotten in developing regions where subscription and usage fees will be lower.

The bulk of subscriber growth will come from countries where GDP per capita is under $3,000 a year, with obvious implications for retail pricing.

For those of you who have followed global communications industry for any length of time, this is a surprising development, as policymakers have for decades lamented the slow pace of communications development in much of the world.

These days, the use of mobility to rapidly increase both voice and broadband consumption is nothing short of breathtaking.

The corollary, TeleGeography says, is that service providers with significant exposure to developing markets will fare better in acquiring those new customers. Service providers operating in multiple geographies will do even better, TeleGeography says.

http://www.telegeography.com/cu/article.php?article_id=28323

Qwest Adds National Wi-Fi Access

Qwest Communications has joined the ranks of service providers for whom the Wi-Fi hotspot business model is cable modem or digital subscriber line service. The move also illustrates the growing trend to offer broadband access irrespective of how a network provides that access.

The next step for some providers will be broadband subscriptions that cover fixed or mobile access. For Qwest, the new features add a key mobility element for its fixed service.

Qwest broadband access customers now have free, unlimited nationwide access to Qwest Wi-Fi offered at 17,000 hotspots, powered by the AT&T Wi-Fi network.

A recent survey Qwest sponsored found nearly half of all respondents valued Wi-Fi because it provided them with the freedom and flexibility to stay connected beyond the home or office. In other words, users increasingly expect Internet access wherever they are.

"Our study showed that nearly half of all respondents get ‘antsy,’ in about an hour, if they can’t check e-mail, social networking sites or instant messaging," says Dan Yost, Qwest executive vice president.

California Wants $1 Billion in Broadband Stimulus Funds?

The good news is that 96 percent of California's households have access to a high-speed Internet connection, some note. The bad news is that 45 percent of Californians choose not to buy broadband.

Still, California officials are said to be contemplating asking for as much as $1 billion of the $7.2 billion in national broadband stimulus funding. For demand stimulation, possibly.

http://www.sacbee.com/politics/story/1833842.html?mi_rss=State%2520Politics

Everything's Amazing; Nobody's Happy

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jETv3NURwLc&feature=PlayList&p=6C3C7034BEA0AA1D&playnext=1&playnext_from=PL&index=7

U.S. Mobile Market Goes North in 4Q; Rest of World Goes South

The U.S. mobile market behaved differently from most of the rest of the world in the fourth quarter of 2008: most markets saw revenue declines; the United States did not..

Mobile end-user average revenue per user dropped between five percent and 15 percent globally in the fourth quarter of 2008, year-over-year, according to researchers at ABI Research. China, India, and a number of other Asian markets dropped more than 10 percent.

In Europe the ARPU contraction was in the range of five to eight percent.

But in North America, ARPU grew, on the strength of mobile data revenues. In South America, markets were more mixed with some markets deflating inline and others, like Brazil, managing to hold up ARPUs, says ABI Research.

To be sure, mobile data revenues are growing in virtually every market. Mobile data (messaging and mobile Internet) contributes 38 percent of Japanese ARPUs, and many European operators depend on mobile data for over 25 percent to 30 percent of their ARPU.

One can only speculate about why the U.S. market has behaved differently. Perhaps, despite the recession, consumers have more discretionary income. Perhaps pricing models are such that variable usage reductions are less attractive. Maybe there is something different about the demand curve for mobile Internet.

Whatever the reasons, the U.S. mobility business was somewhat atypical in the fourth quarter.

http://www.abiresearch.com/press/1421-Economic+Conditions+Reducing+Mobile+End-User+Spending+Up+to+15%25