Grappling with IPTV, Online Video Economics

One of the issues service providers grapple with when weighing IPTV offerings is the financial return. Many executives who have done so say they actually lose money doing so, and others who think they will inevitably have to jump in likewise expect to lose money.

That is one reason some executives think an alternative approach, either based on streaming or downloading, might make more sense. Certainly that is what any number of video distributors are doing, or have done, with modest success.

But the economics of movie rental services might ultimately prove just about as challenging. The home video market represents about 54 percent of the U.S. film industry’s $45 billion in 2008 revenues.

Perhaps 49 percent of the revenue in turn is generated by DVD sales. Perhaps 21 percent is generated by video rentals. The issue, in part, is that profit margins are higher on sales than rentals, and higher for online-delivered products than physical media substitutes.

One wonders how long the content owners will sit by if distributors offering $1 rentals, low cost or even "no additional cost" streaming, continue to gain traction. There just isn't much margin at that price level, for anybody in the value chain.

At some point, lots of service providers without the scale economics of AT&T or Verizon Communications might conclude that online video is a "cost of doing business," not a "revenue" item.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/137502-netflix-movie-studios-pose-greatest-threat?source=feed

Social Network Ad Revenue to Stall, Blame it on MySpace

Total social network ad spending in the U.S. will drop 3 percent to $1.1 billion in 2009, from $1.2 billion last year, says eMarketer, and the falloff is almost solely attributable to what will happen at MySpace.

MySpace accounts for nearly half of all U.S. advertising spend in the social networking space. Analysts at eMarketer now forecast that MySpace advertising will fall 15 percent in 2009, compared to 2008.

MySpace booked an estimateed $585 million in advertising in 2008, but will earn just $495 million this year, down 15 percent from last year.

Facebook advertising and widget placements do not seem to be affected, eMarketer says.

Facebook advertising is expected to grow nine percent in 2009, to $230 million. Ad spending on widgets and applications also will climb $70 million in 2009, up 75 percent from the year before.

In general, U.S. ad spend on all other social network sites combined is expected to rise abou one percent to $345 million.

This is a major reversal, but perhaps to be expected, given the overall economic climate. Spending grew an estimated 33 percent in 2008 and 129 percent in 2007.

60% Unified Communications, Video Adoption by 2010?

Some 60 percent of enterprise executives polled recently by Network Instruments say they will have implemented unified communications capabilities at their organizations by 2010, while 57 percent say they will have implemented video solutions by 2010.

Some 66 percent of the 442 network engineers, IT directors, and CIOs in North America, Asia, Europe, Africa, and South America also report they will have teleconferencing solutions in place by 2010.

VoIP adoption continues to rise, as 75 percent of companies will have installed VoIP by the end of 2009,  compared to 61 percent in 2007.

One has to interpret such findings. When enterprise executives are asked whether they will deploy a given technology, it does not mean they will deploy throughout the entire enterprise. Also, plans typically slip a bit; rarely are they accelerated.

That's about the only way to make sense of survey findings that often show a third of respondents plan to do something "within the next 12 months," virtually every time a survey is taken.

Dramatic Shift for Telstra?

Australian incumbent telco Telstra would be split in two if a government proposal is accepted voluntarily. Under the deal, the Australian government would offer Telstra the chance to buy up to 49 per cent of a new national broadband network if Telstra agrees to separate itself into a wholesale access company and a separate retail service provider business.

In a first step, Telstra would be "functionally" separated into a wholesale access company and a retail business. As part of this deal, where Telstra would still own both businesses, Telstra would have the chance to buy as much as 20 percent of the new broadband access company to be formed, but would contribute its present optical network to the new entity.

Such approaches to stimulating broadband competition are in place in the United Kingdom and coming in Singapore, with both Australian and New Zealand regulators looking at the concept as well.

Such institutional frameworks would allow a different answer to the question "can a service provider make a business out of dumb pipe" than is conceivable in North America or most other markets globally. By definition, one provider would sell broadband access connections to all other retail service providers.

http://www.australianit.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25467023-15306,00.html

Android Will Grow 900% in 2009

Global Android smart phone shipments will grow 900 percent in 2009, say analysts at Strategy Analytics. Of course, very-rapid growth on a percentage basis often is possible for firms, services or products starting froma very-low installed base, but the growth forecast is indicative of a product expected to gain market acceptance. 

The Apple iPhone operating system will be the next fastest-growing smartphone operating system in 2009, with a 79 percent growth rate, Strategy Analytics says. 

"Android has fast been winning healthy support among operators, vendors and developers," says Neil Mawston, Strategy Analytics director.

"A relatively low-cost licensing model, its semi-open-source structure and Google's support for cloud services have encouraged companies such as HTC, Motorola, Samsung, T Mobile, Vodafone and others to support the Android operating system."

The upshot: "Android is now in a good position to become a top-tier player in smartphones over the next two to three years," Mawston says.

Pingo Business Drops Mexico Rates 50%

Pingo Business, the prepaid VoIP calling services from iBasis, has reduced calling rates to Mexico by 50 percent for consumer and small and medium-sized business (SMBs) customers, through May 31, 2009.

The move is a response to the recent H1N1influenza outbreak in Mexico, which has caused shutdowns in businesses and services, prompted airlines to severely curtail flights in and out of the country. With travel to Mexico also the subject of warnings from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Pingo Business believes the temporary program will help businesses maintain operations.

Ovum says Demand, Not Access, is Chief Broadband Problem

Digital divides in developed economies are less about limited broadband availability and more about a lack of broadband demand and complex interfaces, say analysts at Ovum. In that that regard, Ovum joins a growing number of policy advocates who now recognize there is a difference between broadband availability" and "broadband use."

Though there clearly are some locations, largely in rural areas, that do not yet have a choice of wired providers, most rural U.S. locations, for example, can receive satellite service from two providers, HughesNet and WildBlue. And as many as 96 percent of U.S. homes can receive cable modem service, while 90 percent or so of U.S. locations can get digital subscriber line service from a telephone company as well.

 

“There has been significant focus on the limited availability of broadband as the main factor in creating digital divides” says Charlie Davies, Ovum senior analyst. "In fact, Ovum, as well as other consumer surveys and studies, have shown other factors such as a lack of demand as being a more significant barrier”.

That's an important distinction, since solving a problem requires defining accurately what the problem is. One might argue that not enough people buy BMWs because they can't get to a nearby dealership (an access problem). One might alternatively argue that more people do not buy BMWs because it isn't the right vehicle or because it costs too much (a demand problem).

Observers increasingly are acknowledging that demand, not access, is the main problem, though some areas are remote enough that physical access by wired facilities remains a problem.

In many developed markets, broadband penetration is now well over 50 percent but overall broadband growth is slowing, despite the fact that broadband availability is at an all-time high. Ovum says this situation is due to  a significant minority of people not being interested in taking up broadband, or other significant barriers in doing so (not interested in using the Internet, not owning a PC, not knowing how to use the Internet or not able to, or willing to pay for service, for example).

"Many people without broadband or the Internet are put off by overly complex devices and interfaces that cater to the technically literate," says Ovum. "In addition, users with disabilities are largely under-served."

The cost of using the Internet also is a barrier. So demand stimulation, not physical access, is the chief impediment to higher broadband usage.