Google Instant Appears to Change Search Behavior

Many wondered whether "Google Instant" would change search behavior, not to mention ad impressions. An analysis by Marin Software seems to suggest there have been changes.

Users seem to have increased their number of searches and clicks, for example. And user search preferences also seem to have changed, in facor of short searches (defined as three or fewer tokens), which saw a greater increase in impressions and clicks, when compared to long searches, Marin Software says.

That suggests a side effect of "Google Instant." While the 9.3 percent jump in ad impressions could simply be due to more searches, it could also be an artifact of users interacting with predicted search results, or pausing to review interim search results while they refine a longer search query. 

That was something some observers had expected might happen, and it seems to be a valid observation. 

Click volumes also went up by 5.6 percent.  The implication here is that users are probably responding to interim ads while they’re still typing or refining search queries. The analysis suggests that users are now more engaged with the search page and search results. This change in user behavior is a direct consequence of how Google Instant has changed a user’s search experience, says Marin Software. 

The cost per click for exact and phrase-match terms decreased significantly when compared to broad-match terms, implying that search marketers should pay increased attention to refining their match types in a post-Instant world, Marin Software argues. When users have the ability to target and modify searches "on the fly," it appears they respond by narrowing their search parameters.

Some had suggested that the "on the fly" suggestions would lead users to explore a bit more, dwell a bit more and adjust a bit more, in some cases allowing more ad inventory to be displayed than would formerly be the case. That seems to have happened. Google Instant seems to have boosted ad impressions and clicks, increased cost slightly while dropping cost-per-click, a study by Marin Software has found.

Marin Software found that impressions for paid search ads increased by more than nine percent while clicks increased by more than five percent through the first two weeks of Instant’s existence on Google.com.

For the typical enterprise search marketer, it is almost certain that Google Instant will result in more impressions and clicks. Some advertisers may see a decline in their CPC, but it is likely that as advertisers increase daily budgets, CPC values will rise to their pre-Instant values.

Spending rose two percent after "Instant" launched, according to Marin, which compared data for keywords from the two weeks before and after the launch of Google Instant.

Though impressions and clicks rose, cost per click actually went down by 3.47 percent. That could be accounted for by a more -rapid depletion of daily budgets than anticipated, plus lower average costs per click for subsequent inventory auctions.

The study suggests that impressions and clicks increased more for short searches than they did for long searches. That might suggest that a post-Instant world there will a trend to more short searches than before.

By helping users refine search queries through predicted search phrases, Google Instant appears to have changed user behavior and biased it towards shorter search phrases.

While broad-match terms still command about 70 percent of all impressions and about 47 percent of all clicks, exact-match and phrase-match terms gained ground after Instant was launched. overall broad-match costs have risen, while costs for exact-match terms have declined despite being accompanied by relatively more clicks.

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Mac App Store Changes Software Distribution

The upcoming Apple Mac "App Store" might change the way software gets packaged, developed and sold in the OS X part of the PC market, one might suggest, either augmenting or displacing the "preloaded when you buy it" or "shrink wrapped product sold in retail stores" models.

Some might argue that is the whole point, mirroring in the device software market the shift from physical to virtual distribution of music, video and other information products. Similar ecosystem issues also will grow.

Developers might not like having to abide by Apple's terms and conditions. Developers might not like the compensation schemes or rates. But consumers probably will get used to the idea. Even Best Buy already has announced that it will, at some point, cease to sell shrink wrapped movies in its retail stores.

One has to wonder whether music and software will be that far behind.

Mac App Store: boon or bust for developers?

Is Sprint's Fate Linked to Clearwire?

Clearwire has issued a "going concern" warning in its latest 10Q report to the Securities and Exchange Commission, saying it could run out of money by mid-year 2011 if it does not secure a large infusion of new capital, estimated to be in the couple of billion dollars range.

It seems unlikely Clearwire would fail to secure such funding, though it seems to have proven unusually difficult so far.

The unknown is whether Clearwire's potential troubles might also lead to changes at Sprint Nextel, which owns 54 percent of Clearwire. In principle, even a dramatic change of ownership at Clearwire would not directly lead to changes at Sprint Nextel.

But it appears there is some level of interest by offshore buyers in Sprint Nextel. Some speculate a combination deal to buy Sprint Nextel and Clearwire would make sense for both companies.

Clearwire Says It May Not Make It - 24/7 Wall St.

Video Entertainment Decline Seems Not to be a Blip

Much was made of a first-time-ever decline in multichannel video subscibers in the second quarter. So the big issue became "what will happen in the third quarter?"

Though all of the data is not available (some firms are private and do not have to report), it does appear that the second quarter decline was not a one-time anomaly.

Dish Network lost about 29,000 net subscribers during the third quarter of 2010. CableVision Systems Corp. lost 24,500 basic video subscriptions in the quarter. Comcast earlier reported a loss of 275,000 subscribers in the third quarter, while Time Warner Cable says it lost 155,000 video subscribers, representing a collective loss of 483,500 customers.

Verizon's FiOS TV service had an increase of 204,000 net new subscribers, while AT&T's U-Verse had an increase of 236,000 new video subscribers. That represents a gain of 440,000 subscribers. DirecTV added 174,000 net new U.S video customers. So telcos and DirecTV gained a net 614,000 net new customers.

Based on what happened with the major public companies, telcos and satellite companies (at least DirecTV) gained 130,500 more customers than the cable companies and Dish Network lost.

So here's an exercise to figure out what might have happened. Comcast, Time Warner Cable, Cox, Charter Communications and Cablevision Systems between them represent about 80 percent of all U.S. cable video customers.

Comcast and Time Warner represent 59 percent of all U.S. cable video customers. So asume every cable operator lost customers at the same rates as Comcast and Time Warner.

That would suggest overall cable industry losses at about 728,800 customers. If the telco and satellite competitors gained 614,000 net new customers, that leaves 115,000 customers who simply stopped buying.

But what that that means for the "video cord cuttting" thesis is unclear. We don't know whether the estimated 115,000 lost customers corresponds to reality. If the number is mostly correct, we don't know whether the change in behavior is permanent or temporary.

But it seems possible that the overall size of the U.S. multichannel video market is contracting at the moment. It seems to have done so for two quarters in a row, an unprecedented event. Whether that means a shift to over-the-top video consumption, a shift to over-the-air viewing or something else cannot yet be determined. Nor can we tell whether the behavior is temporary or permanent.

But the cord cutting thesis cannot be discounted. Up to this point consumers seem to have responded to tougher times by cutting back on premium services, pay per view and other ancillary services that have been driving cable video revenue growth. Over the last two quarters, consumers might be cutting even more than that, abandoning video service altogether and perhaps shifting scarce discretionary income to other services deemed more important, such as mobile or broadband services.

Will Enterprise Mobile Security Issues Slow Mobile App Adoption?

You always can get an argument about the importance of data security in an enterprise setting, and that applies to use of mobile devices as data appliances as well.

Nick Jones, Gartner analyst, argues that Android is "probably" the least secure of the mainstream mobile platforms if only because it’s the least mature and has one of the least regulated app stores.

Even the best of them, RIM, is dependent on things outside the platform’s control, such as trusting the person who provides an application, says Jones.

When will mobile the security backlash happen?

Banks Rush to Fix Security Flaws in Mobile Apps

Wells Fargo & Co., Bank of America Corp. and USAA are issuing updates to some of their wireless banking applications to fix security flaws. Some of the applications store usernames, passwords and financial information as "clear text," the Wall Street Journal reports.

The problem only points out the greater need for security and privacy protection as software ecosystems become more complex.

Banks Rush to Fix Security Flaws in Wireless Apps - WSJ.com (subscription required)

US News & World Report Goes Digital Only

U.S. News & World Report is going digital-only in 2011. Its last regular print issue will be published in December 2010.

Going forward, the magazine's non-subscription print offerings will be for newsstand sale and targeted distribution. That includes the college and grad guides, as well as hospital and personal finance guides. The magazine also says it will publish four other newsstand special editions, focusing on history, religion and some of the other subjects that have been a success for us in the past.

Poynter Online - Romenesko