Tablets Changing App Behavior?

Today’s early tablet adopters apparently are using print media, PCs, and other devices less often than they used to, said Sarah Rotman Epps, Forrester Research analyst. Some 31 percent of tablet owners surveyed report they are using their PCs less, while 26 percent are using their notebooks or laptops less.

For some of us, the most important implications of tablet use are not the devices tablets compete with, but the ways application usage and time commitments change. 

It isn't clear whether tomorrow's mainstream adopters will use their tablets in the same way that early adopters do. But it seems likely they will. The bigger question might be whether tablet growth rates can continue at high rates given all the other devices consumers will want to buy as well.

Consumers who intend to buy a tablet in the next six months are almost twice as likely as US online consumers in general to want a new HDTV set, and they’re more than twice as likely to want an eReader, Blu-ray player, 3D HDTV, Xbox 360 with Kinect, and a host of other gadgets, says Rotman Epps.

One might well question whether it is possible for consumers to manage all that in the next six months. When compared with current tablet owners, would-be tablet

buyers have 21 percent lower incomes, are 51 percent more likely to set a spending limit for technology purchases, and are 75 percent more likely to say they delay other purchases to buy a new gadget.

There are some scenarios where PCs still will remain the preferred device. Office settings, where heavy content production is required, still seems to be the province of the PC. It might be reasonable to predict that tablets and smart phones will largely be preferred elsewhere than the office.

Tablets also seem poised to displace portable game players, but not consoles. Casual gaming seems to work fine on tablets, while more-complex games still require a console.

Video consumption in the living room still seems the province of the HDTV, while PCs are used at work and in offices, while tablets will be used elsewhere. There seems little reason to dispute the prediction that tablets will take share from offline products, PCs and e-readers.

Visa Launches French Test of microSD, Australia Test Raises Some Questions

Visa International is planning another trial of microSD-based credentials security, working with French bank Groupe BPCE.  Visa will be using microSD technology from Device Fidelity, which has long championed the use of NFC secure elements, rather than putting credentials into the subscriber information module used by mobile service providers to load subscriber information. See this.


The trial will use iPhone cases containing the NFC radio and antenna, as well as the microSD slot for the secure element. The Samsung Galaxy S and a pair of BlackBerry devices also will  be used in the trials.


The trial is significant because there still remains disagreement within the ecosystem about where to put the credentials loading and security functions. Mobile service providers want to load the credentials into the subscriber information module used to load mobile subscriber account details.


Others, including Device Fidelity and many handset manufacturers, would prefer some new method that does not use the mobile operator SIM. The differences of opinion have other angles, including form factor of the SIMs, perceived security advantages and, most importantly, control over the credentials loading process. 

Obviously, if credentials are loaded into the mobile SIM, a role automatically is created for mobile service providers in the payments ecosystem.

Visa, handset manufacturers and other interests might like to escape such control.


But there’s a reason new technology gets tested. Sometimes partners find some approaches are not suitable, for any number of reasons, or are not suitable at this time.



Australia’s ANZ Bank, which has been testing a microSD approach to storing credentials in mobile devices, has concluded its Near Field Communication test, but has decided not to proceed with a full deployment based on MicroSD technology.



The bank, in partnership with Visa, launched a trial in March 2011 where a MicroSD card pre-programmed with a user's banking details could be inserted into an NFC-enabled phone case on iPhones and Android-handsets. Users could then open an app on the phone to be used in conjunction with Visa PayWave readers.

ANZ Bank says the MicroSD card system used in the trials didn't measure up to the bank's needs, for some reason. See this.

FCC Wireless Competition Report is Inconclusive, Sort Of

The Federal Communications Commission’s 15th “Annual Report and Analysis of Competitive Market Conditions With Respect to Mobile Wireless, Including Commercial Mobile Services  makes no formal finding as to whether there is, or is not, effective competition in the industry” actually reaches no stated conclusion on the U.S. wireless market, in terms of effective competition, a surprise to some observers, who had predicted that the FCC report would declare the U.S. market “not competitive” in some substantial respects.

On the other hand, one standard test of industry concentration shows a "high degree of concentration." But many observers would simply ask what other state of affairs could possibly be the case.

The report does use the “Herfindahl-Hirschman Index,” (HHI), which is calculated by summing the squared market shares of all firms in any given market, and is a commonly used measure of industry concentration.

Antitrust authorities in the United States generally classify markets into three types: Unconcentrated (HHI < 1500), Moderately Concentrated (1500 < HHI < 2500), and Highly Concentrated (HHI > 2500).


In the mobile wireless services industry, the weighted average of HHIs (weighted by population across the 172 Economic Areas in the United States) was 2811 at the end of 2009, compared to 2842 at the end of 2008.


By that measure, the U.S. wireless market is “highly concentrated.” But observers will argue about what that means. Access services of any type are “highly concentrated” in almost every market, in the sense that there are typically two dominant wired providers.


Wireless markets typically have more providers than that, but even wireless is “highly concentrated.” Whether access markets, wireless or wireline, can be anything but highly concentrated seems to be the issue. There is a good reason why access markets traditionally have been “monopoly” markets. Until recently, it was thought impossible to have facilities-based competition in access markets.


In fact, in most markets globally, that will still generally be the case. Hence we see wholesale networks being built in several countries, the theory being that markets will not support more than one optical access network.


So you can draw your own conclusions. The report does not specifically say the the U.S. wireless market is uncompetitive. The HHI test would suggest the market is highly concentrated, though.


And many would say there is virtually no possibility of any other outcome in the access business. That is why wholesale-only optical access networks are being built in New Zealand, Australia and already is available in Singapore. In other words, traditional tests of market concentration always are difficult to apply in the access business, since there probably is only room for a small number of facilities-based providers, in any scenario.
Mobile voice coverage would not strike most observers as being anything but competitive. The report states that 89.6 percent of consumers can buy service from five or more suppliers, for example. To be sure, the number of competitors is higher, across the board, in more-populated areas, as you would expect.

Wireless broadband coverage is relatively consistent with the voice findings, as 68 percent of U.S. consumers have a choice of four or more providers. The caveat is that the. competition is mostly confined to more-densely-populated areas, again as you would expect. Rural consumers clearly do not have as many choices.

Google Tries Social with New Google+

Where Does Tumblr Fit?

If you are familiar with blog software and Twitter, you might wonder where Tumblr fits, as not really a replacement for a traditional blog, and it’s not a substitute for Twitter. You then will have to decide if you have time to add yet one more social tool for which you must create content.

Tumblr can be used primarily as a microblog, which is to say, a content site that doesn't require heavy text, but more pictures, videos and photos, but with more ability to post than Twitter provides. See Journalists, take another look at Tumblr

Parts of its utility are the “heart” and "reblog"features, which make it ridiculously easy to note that you "like" a postand to instantly “retweet” with the ability to replicate photos, videos, quotes and links while perfectly preserving the original source. Tumblr, some would say, is more socially oriented than a traditional blogging platform, more suited to microblogging that is highly visual. See http://www.tumblr.com/explore.

But here's a commerce site built using Tumblr. See http://blog.pret-a-portel.com/post/4788460184/the-real-deal-anna-karina or http://pret-a-portel.com/.

PayPal, Google, Facebook And Apple Are Fighting For This New Multibillion Dollar Market

"AT&T challenges Visa, MasterCard" is an irresistible and compelling headline. So is "PayPal, Google, Facebook, Apple fighting for dominance in mobile payments." Whether the implied competition is direct, indirect or largely fictional is hard to address at the moment. Six months ago it seemed as though AT&T and Verizon Wireless were on a collision course with Visa and MasterCard. That no longer seems to be the case, and it has taken just six months for matters to change.

Nor is it likely that PayPal and Google are interested in the same parts of the ecosystem. Google cares about advertising potential. PayPal, on the other hand, clearly cares about transaction revenue and the "float" on prepaid accounts. Apple might be more concerned about boosting the value of iTunes in ways more directly related to content. Facebook almost certainly is more interested in online forms of social commerce.

There is but one unifying theme: Every company, or just about every company, thinks people are going to be using their mobile devices more often for commerce activities. In some cases that might mean using the mobile device as a substitute for a credit card or debit card swipe. In other cases the loyalty application will be the driver. In yet other cases the business model will hinge on promotion, advertising and marketing potential.

In yet other cases, the attraction will be mobiles used to make micropayment purchases for games. In most cases the headline potential won't be as dramatic, though the concrete revenue models will be. Some players will enter the market targeting one segment, then shift course and wind up targeting other segments. Isis originally launched as a "payment" competitor, but has switched to the "wallet" or "credentials" part of the ecosystem.

Square established itself as a payment terminal provider, but now seems to be adding on "wallet" functions as well. Similar shifts can be expected each step of the way as the "mobile money" business gets going on a larger scale. PayPal already is a major player in online transactions, and the issue is how it might try to leverage its position to become a bigger player in real-world retail transactions as well.

PayPal, Google, Facebook And Apple Are Fighting For This New Multibillion Dollar Market

Location-Based Ads Will Hit $6 Billion By 2015

"Location-based service" advertising will grow to over one-third of all mobile advertising in four years, according to Pyramid Research. But navigation services will be important, likely much more important, for mobile service providers, as most of the advertising will be earned by third parties.

By 2015, location-based advertising will be $6.2 billion,Pyramid Research says. In 2010, location-based advertising was $588 million, representing about 18.5 percent of all mobile advertising. Location-based advertising will generate 60 percent of all location-based revenue in four years. See MediaPost Publications Location-Based Ads Hit $6B By 2015 06/28/2011.

“Following many years of high expectations, the location-based services market is finally coming of age," says Jan ten Sythoff, Pyramid Research analyst.

Overall location-based revenue is expected to reach US$10.3 billion in 2015, up from $2.8 billion in 2010, ten Sythoff says. “There are a number of different factors driving market growth, including increasing GPS and smartphone adoption, success of new business models, continued growth of mobile advertising and the wider coverage and higher speeds of mobile networks,” adds ten Sythoff. See http://www.pyramidresearch.com/pr_prlist/WPR053111_RPLBS.htm.

Growing adoption of GPS devices is the key driver, helping a whole host of different applications and services to grow. “For mobile operators, this is an opportunity to drive new revenue streams, but it is also a threat because it means access to location information is no longer their monopoly.

In 2008 operators gained around 80 percent of all location-based service revenue. This has fallen to around half, but the total market has grown more than fivefold,” he says.