Bearish View of Google+

Not everybody thinks Google+ will succeed. Some think it is another case of "technology for its own sake."

A spectre is haunting the technology industry. It is called "electric wok syndrome" and it mainly afflicts engineers and those who invest in their fantasies. The condition takes its name from the fact that nobody in his or her right mind would want an electric wok. But because it is possible to make such things, they are manufactured, regardless of whether or not there is a need for them. The syndrome is thus characterised by the mantra: 'Technology is the answer; now what was that question again?'

That isn't my view, but I am a big user of Google services, for work and everything else. I am seeing increasing traction with people I normally connect with in the technology space, which might not predict success in the broader consumer market. It is way too early to make any assessment of whether Google+ can succeed, though, for those who are skeptical or those who are optimistic.

Why Google social networking = electric wok

"You Don’t Know It’s A Bubble Until The Bubble Ends"

If you haven't lived through an Internet investing bubble and the burst, you are in for some surprises. Funding is going to dry up, which is why so many firms are raising money now, while they can. Innovation won't stop, but lots of would-be innovators will find themselves in an investing nuclear winter. Firms won't be able to easily go public, so we'll be back to the "sell my company to Google" exit strategy. There will be additional names on the "sell my company to" list, but the point is that it will be impossible for most start-ups to raise money, and hard to exit.

For people not in the Internet business, the impact will be more diffuse, but might be worse than the last time around, in 2001. The reason is that the economy was healthy then, and is definitely unhealthy now. House prices were still in a building bubble. Housing now is a bubble that has burst.
Some might still argue we are not in a bubble, or building towards a bubble.

"On the general question of bubble, in the first place you don’t know it’s a bubble until the bubble ends, by definition," says Google Executive Chairman Eric Schmidt. "The rule I set for myself 10 years ago was that if the press calls it a bubble then I’d pay attention, and let me report that the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal and the Economist have all written articles saying that it’s a bubble."

Almost by definition, once the bubble bursts, we are going to find out that no companies are worth as much as investors thought they were worth.

Eric Schmidt: You Don’t Know It’s A Bubble Until The Bubble Ends

Media Tablet Sales Lag Optimistic First Quarter Targets

Worldwide media tablet shipments into sales channels fell by 28 percent on a sequential basis in the first calendar quarter of 2011, to 7.2 million units worldwide, according to International Data Corporation. Looking forward, however, IDC raised its shipment forecast for 2011 to 53.5 million units from a previous projection of 50.4 million units.

“We expect the rest of the year to be much stronger, but we believe vendors who continue to focus on the telco channel for distribution will face serious challenges,” says Bob O'Donnell, IDC Vice President, Clients and Displays.

For the first quarter of 2011, the seasonal trends typically found in more mature consumer electronics and computing categories had a notable impact on the burgeoning media tablet market, suggesting that demand for the category may not be quite as strong as recent media hype suggests, IDC says.

Media Tablet Sales Lag Optimistic First Quarter Targets, But Forecast Remains Strong

Patent Issues for Android Growing?

Microsoft is getting a reported $5 intellectual property royalty from HTC on every Android smartphone and tablet HTC sells. Microsoft also reportedly has also struck deals with a handful of other manufacturers for an undisclosed fee on each device they make as well.

Microsoft reportedly also is seeking $15 per Android device from Samsung. That is roughly in line with what Microsoft charges Windows Phone 7 manufacturers for use of that operating system.

The issue is whether there will be other licensing deals sought by Oracle, Microsoft and perhaps Apple, which is also suing some Android makers.

Such deals would be important because they would raise the cost of shipping Android handsets. To the extent that lower licensing costs are an important issue for some models, such potential costs might slow Android adoption by some manufacturers.

Can patent licensing fees derail the Android express?

More Bad News On Job Front

The Labor Department has just released its June unemployment and jobs data, and it is dismal. The June unemployment rate has just ticked up to 9.2% from 9.1% in May and the payrolls creation was a mere 18,000. Read more here..

Consensus estimates were 9.1% for unemployment and the payrolls projections were above 100,000 since the ADP payrolls data came out this week.  Dow Jones was at 125,000 in payrolls, and Bloomberg’s reading yesterday was 110,000.  Apparently this leaves more than 14 million Americans on the sidelines.

To make matters worse, the payrolls data for the prior two months were revised lower by 44,000.

One way of looking at matters is to note that we haven't had this few jobs, as a percentage of people, since about 1983, which was a rough year.

Get Your Facebook News Feed In Google+

"Google Facebook," an extension for Firefox and Chrome that lets you view your Facebook stream in Google and update your status from it. Download here.

Install the extension, allow it to connect with your Facebook account and pull the required information and a Facebook button will be added next to the Home button in the Google interface.

You can update your status (text updates only) by clicking on the What’s on your mind? field box. As of now, you can’t see status likes or post comments from Google. But just wait.

Get Your Facebook News Feed In Google

Amazon Bets Big on Tablets

If you assume a tablet is optimized for media consumption, and is in some ways an e-reader for people who don't want to use a dedicated e-reader, then it is obvious why Amazon wants to be a supplier of branded tablets that immediately become distribution platforms for its content.

And DigiTimes reports that Amazon is placing large orders for tablets.