Online Video Still Needs Scale to Attract More Advertising

The online-video market represented about $1.8 billion worth of ad spending in 2011, with half of that going to just two players: Hulu (about $300 million) and YouTube (about $600 million), according to Brian Wieser, an analyst at Pivotal Research Group, and reported by Ad Age. 


Most of the advertising growth in online video could happen because it shifts spending from the $70 billion spent annually on TV ads in the U.S. market. 


High-quality video lots of people want to watch might be necessary. But it is not sufficient for success, simply because video advertisers want large audiences.


And the simple fact is that not many providers have both attractive programming and large audiences. Subscription revenue is dominated by Netflix. 

Apple Tablet Share 51% in 2017

Apple, after reaching a market share high of nearly 75 percent in 2013, will see its share decline steadily to 50.9 percent in 2017, according to forecasts by the NPD Group.


Shipments of tablet PCs are expected to grow from 81.6 million units in 2011 to 424.9 million units by 2017, according to NPD Group. 


That forecast suggests that in 2016 more tablet PCs will be shipped than notebook PCs. 

Most of Apple's declining market share will be grabbed by Android tablets, which will increase its market share to 40.5 percent from an estimated 22.5 percent in 2012, NPD says. It adds that Windows RT slates may be at 7.5 percent of the market in 2017.


The iOS operating system has been dominant in tablet PCs, but it is expected to lose share, from 72.1 percent in 2012 to 50.9 percent in 2017, as Android increases from 22.5 percent in  2012 to 40.5 percent over the same period. 


Meanwhile, share for Windows RT is also expected to grow, but from a very small base of 1.5 percent in 2012 to 7.5 percent in 2017.


 

Subscription Video Market Shrinks 1.5% in 2011

U.S. cable operators lost about 2.9 million video subscribers in 2011, shrinking the overall subscription TV market by 1.5 percent even as telcos added 1.1 million and satellite TV providers were roughly flat at 280,000 net adds, according to Nielsen data.


The big take away is that cable TV subs fell five percent. That steady drip, drip, drip of deserting customers now is the cable analogy to telco wired voice. 


Meanwhile, households with broadband and only free, over-the-air broadcast TV increased by 631,000 over the course of last year, climbing 14 percent to 5.1 million. 

Why Google Has to Go "Mobile First"

Three numbers explain why Google has taken the "mobile first" approach to application development, why it has chosen to lose some money on Android and create mobile devices.


A recent survey by Strata Marketing of  1,000 advertising agencies that together process $50 billion in media buys annually found 69 percent focused their digital spend on social media. 


That's more than those who focused on search (65.5 percent) and just short of online display (71.3 percent), Strata says. 


Keep in mind that Google built its business on search advertising. So leading ad agencies now are placing inventory on display and social more than search. 


Within social media, the majority of advertising agencies (85.1 percent) said they and their clients focused most on Facebook, 44.8 percent on YouTube, 39.1 percent on LinkedIn, 24.1 percent on Google , 9.2 percent on Foursquare and 1.1 percent  on  MySpace. 

The YouTube figures are helpful, but the fact remains that Google has to do better in display and social advertising, as well as mobile, to remain a force in advertising. And it is mobile where the opportunity is greatest, and the market as yet unconsolidated. 

Tablet Market Grew Less than Expected in First Quarter, 2012

The global tablet market did not grow as fast as analysts at International Data Corporation had expected in the first quarter of 2012. A steep drop in shipments of Android-based tablets offset a strong quarter from Apple, according to International Data Corporation Worldwide Quarterly Media Tablet and eReader Tracker.

Total worldwide media tablet shipments for the quarter reached 17.4 million units in the first quarter of 2012, about 1.2 million units below IDC's projection for the quarter.

While IDC predicted a sharp seasonal slowdown of -34 percent from the previous quarter’s record-breaking 28.2 million units, the actual decline was slightly steeper at -38.4 percent.

The total still represents a robust year-over-year growth rate of 120 percent, up from 7.9 million units in the first quarter of 2011.

Apple shipped 11.8 million iPads during the quarter, down from 15.4 million units in the fourth quarter of 2011, and grew its worldwide share from 54.7 percent in the fourth quarter of 2011 to 68 percent in the first quarter of 2012.

Amazon, which had 16.8 percent of the market on shipment of 4.8 million units, saw its share decline significantly in the first quarter to just over four percent, falling to third place as a result.

Samsung took the number-two position while Lenovo vaulted into the number four spot, followed by Barnes & Noble at number five.

Although total Android shipments were down sharply in the first quarter of 2012, companies such as Samsung and Lenovo are beginning to gain traction in the market with their latest generation of Android products. IDC expects the segment to rebound quickly as other vendors introduce new products in the second quarter and beyond.

"The worldwide tablet market is entering a new phase in the second half of 2012 that will undoubtedly reshape the competitive landscape," said Bob O'Donnell, program vice president, Clients and Displays. "While Apple will continue to sit comfortably on the top for now, the battle for the next several positions is going to be fierce. Throw in Ultrabooks, the launch of Windows 8, and a few surprise product launches, and you have all the makings of an incredible 2012 holiday shopping season."

Will "Mobile First" Will Wipe Out The Big Software Makers?

"A lot of legacy players — folks that build enterprise apps on prior platforms — will end up being disrupted by new players who are better equipped to take advantage of the new mobile platform, says Kevin Spain, Emergence Partners general partner. That could even happen to Salesforce and SuccessFactors that grew up in the Web world, he believes.

The startups with the greatest potential to generate outsized returns are those creating “mobile-first enterprise applications” – those that leverage the unique capabilities of mobile devices to enable the creation of new categories of enterprise applications. 


These applications are very different from mobile-enabled versions of traditional enterprise software such as Salesforce.com and Workday,Spain argues.

True “mobile-first enterprise applications” are built for mobile platforms initially or exclusively and enable a worker or business to do things that simply were not possible before the proliferation of advanced connected devices.


The point is that mobile and cloud delivery and consumption of applications might have disruptive impact on industry suppliers. 

Samsung Galaxy S III the Challenger to Apple iPhone?

Virtually every smart phone supplier aspires to compete head to head with the Apple iPhone. You can make your own assessment about how well all those efforts have fared. 


But at least some observers believe Samsung might be in position to do so. That is based in part on the profitability of Samsung's smart phone business, as well as sales volume. 


Samsung has displaced longtime mobile device market share leader Nokia as the world's top mobile phone vendor. 


According to International Data Corporation, vendors shipped 398.4 million units in the first quarter of 2012 compared to 404.3 million units in the first quarter of 2011. 


Samsung's ascension to the market's top spot is largely a reflection of its gains in the smart phone market over the past two years, said Kevin Restivo, IDC senior research analyst. 


Apple and Samsung also accounted for a stunning 95 percent of the handset industry's profits during the fourth quarter, according to a study by Canaccord Genuity.


The issue now is whether the Galaxy S III can legitimately compete head to head with the iPhone.