1/3 of U.S. Homes Have Cut Voice Cord

Some 34 percent of U.S.  homes used only mobile devices for phone service during the second half of 2011, an increase of 2.4 percentage points since the first half of 2011.

One might also infer that perhaps half of all U.S. homes might be candidates for going “mobile only,” as nearly one of every six American homes (16 percent) received all or almost all calls on wireless telephones despite also having a landline telephone, according to the July–December 2011 National Health Interview Survey of household communications.

In addition to those mobile-only households, among households with both landline and wireless telephones, 29.9 percent received all or almost all calls on mobile phones.

During the second six months of 2011, approximately 41 million adults (17.8 percent) lived in wireless-mostly households. This prevalence has remained largely unchanged since January 2010.

Hispanic adults (43.3 percent) were more likely than non-Hispanic white adults (29 percent) or non-Hispanic black adults (36.8 percent) to be living in households with wireless telephones only.

Among all wireless-only adults, the proportion aged 35 and over has increased steadily. In the second six months of 2011, half of wireless-only adults (49.6 percent) were aged 35 and over, up from 40.3 percentin the first 6 months of 2008.

What remains to be seen is whether different packaging and pricing of voice services could, or will, halt the landline slide. At least in principle, the new Verizon Wireless pricing of network access, which includes unlimited domestic texting and calling, could guarantee that use of voice and texting does not drop without end.

Amazon Smart Phone Could Eventually Lead to Key Industry Change

Rumors about an Amazon.com smart phone have been circulating, off and on, for a couple of years. They are circulating anew, suggesting that Amazon does want to field a branded smart phone, Bloomberg  reports.

Foxconn International Holdings, the Chinese device manufacturer, reportedly is working with Amazon on the device.


The interesting angle, some of us might say, is "why" Amazon wants to market its own smart phone. It doesn't especially care about voice or texting. What it wants is one more widely-deployed screen that can be the foundation for selling digital books, songs and movies. 


As with tablets, the smart phone now is viewed as a primary content consumption appliance. Of course, at some later point in time, service providers that make their money providing voice, texting and mobile broadband access might have to contend with something new, namely competitors with a different revenue model. 


In other words, mobile service providers might someday face competitors who would consider "giving away the product you sell," as they will have another revenue model, namely content and other sales. 


Amazon and Apple both have shown no hesitation to merchandise something to sell something else. In Apple's case, content is merchandised to sell gadgets. For Amazon, gadgets are merchandised to sell content and products. 


Someday, that might even encourage those firms, or others, to offer connectivity as well as gadgets and content, with the likelihood that connectivity revenue is merchandised to sell either gadgets or content or products. 

Will Apple iOS Platform Match or Eclipse Windows?

Historically, Windows has sold multiples of Apple devices. But that was when "devices" mean personal computers. These days, tablets and smart phones are seen by many as changing the equation. 


By some estimates, the Windows device lead peaked in 2004. So if one counts smart phones, tablets and PCs as the "universe of devices," Apple iOS might reach parity with Windows soon. 

New Bubble Metrics

Five years after the "dot.bomb" or Internet bubble, some would argue, investors already were at it again. Though many had suggested unprofitable technology companies with less than $100 million in revenue would not be able to "go public," that was happening.


By 2005, in other words, what had been "learned" in the aftermath of the Internet bubble were lost. In fact, some would argue matters are worse today, than in 2000 and 2001. 

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One Derecho Wrecks "Availability" Performance for the Whole Year

All it takes to degrade a 99.999 percent availability is a hurricane, derecho or other widespread weather or natural event. That "five nines" standard means annual outages of about five minutes, 26 seconds. 


Verizon says it continues to gain ground in restoring services to its wireline customers following the highly destructive June 29, 2012 Mid-Atlantic derecho that caused power outages to about three million homes and business locations, for at least some period of time. 


Verizon's wireline repair load currently is running two to three times normal levels. Many customers' voice, Internet and TV services are coming back as commercial power is restored, and Verizon crews are spread across the region to replace poles, re-hang downed lines and repair customers' services. As of July 5, 2012, field forces are responding to 156 downed utility poles and 897 downed copper or fiber cables in the region.

Uptime	Uptime	Maximum Downtime per Year
Six nines	99.9999%	31.5 seconds
Five nines	99.999%	5 minutes 35 seconds
Four nines	99.99%	52 minutes 33 seconds
Three nines	99.9%	8 hours 46 minutes
Two nines	99.0%	87 hours 36 minutes
One nine	90.0%	36 days 12 hours

If Facts Don't Fit the Theory, The Theory Probably is Wrong

Facts sometimes don't fit theories that purport to explain those facts.When that happens, it is likely theory is wrong, in some way.That might appear to be the case for one theory about the strategies any industry has to embrace at any stage of its lifecycle.


Of course, some of you will look at the chart and sense a huge anomaly. The telecom industry is over 150 years old and long ago would have passed beyond the "scale" stage, for example.


One observation might be that the theory "fits" non-regulated industries, but does not fit very well for highly-regulated industries such as utilities. Others might note that airlines, which were deregulated in the 1980s, have had 30 years of mergers already. The theory suggests the entire process of moving through all four stages should take about 25 years. 


Note also that the theory claims to apply for any industry that is formed, or is deregulated. Aviation has been a distinct business for much longer than 50 years. 


Of course, it is always possible to force the facts to fit by artificially changing the definition of what an industry is. One might argue that "smart phones" represent a different industry that that of feature phones, or voice-only phones, or analog phones.


One might argue the older telecom business using step switches was different from the business using electromechanical switches or digital switches or now IP switches. 


But that's probably a case of straining to make the facts fit a theory, rather than acknowledging there is something wrong with the theory. 

Best Buy Will Use Mobile Payments Inside New Stores

The heart of a test store near Best Buy's headquarters here is a "Solution Central" help desk, rimmed with chairs and manned by the company's black-tied Geek Squad. It strongly resembles the Genius Bar at Apple's stores.


Best Buy says the new smaller stores are focused less on displaying every conceivable gadget and more on connecting customers with employees who can answer questions or help program equipment.


As part of that change, customers will be able to buy products from just about any Best Buy associate, on the spot, without going to a designated "check out" location, as is the Apple practice as well. That means mobile payments will be the "new normal" at the new Best Buy stores.