Global Handset Shipments Decrease for the Second Consecutive Quarter

As important and as robust as mobile subscriber growth has been over the last decade, it is not invulnerable to economic stress. In fact, on a global basis, mobile handset shipments have declined for two consecutive quarters. 


An economist, tracking any nation's economic performance, would say that set of data marks the beginning of a recession. 


“Handset shipments have not seen a sequential year over year decline since the global economic crisis of 2008-2009," says ABI Research senior analyst Michael Morgan.


Of course, handset purchases often are affected by consumers waiting for hot new models to be released, while some might also note that the second quarter is a seasonally slower quarter.


Apple, for example, experienced a 26 percent quarter over quarter decline in shipments in the second quarter, as consumers withheld purchasing an iPhone in anticipation of the new model to be released in the late third quarter. 


Research in Motion and Nokia experienced 14 percent and 30 percent quarter over quater declines respectively. To some extent, those dips might partially be explained by customers waiting for the next major product families from each of the suppliers, and in part by a shift of demand away from both suppliers. 

North American Mobile Capex to Grow in 2013

North American mobile operators will hike capital investment in 2013 to support fourth generation inetwork construction, ABI Research estimates. But some think 2013 might market a peak of mobile capital investment on a global basis.

Mobile capital investment fluctuates from year to year, based on network upgrade plans, economic conditions and competitive threats, and investment has been building since about 2008, partly because of 4G network constructiion and partly because operators were cautious during the Great Recession that began in 2008.

“North American mobile cellular capital expenditure is expected to hold its ground in 2012 year-on-year, with expenditure of around $10 billion”, says Jake Saunders, VP for forecasting at ABI Research. “In 2013, mobile capital expenditure is likely to surge 4.9 percent to $10.5 billion.

Service providers are in many cases also shifting investment from older networks to 4G. Verizon Wireless, for example, has announced an end to the  expansion and capacity enhancement of its 3G network, in favor of building out its 4G LTE coverage.

Mobile operators, as typically is the case, squeezed capital expenditure during the economic downturn in order to protect cash flows and maintain profits. What normally happens is a catch-up phase where deferred investment gets made.


Wireless Intelligence notes that total global mobile capex peaked at $204 billion in 2008, at the beginning of the financial crisis, accounting for 21 percent of total revenues.

However, capex then fell to $197 billion (19 percent of revenue) by 2010, as operators reacted to the crisis. In developed mobile markets operators reduced capex by eight percent in 2008 and by six percent in 2009, increasing capex again in 2010 as many operators began investing in LTE.

The typical investment slowdown in tougher economic times boosts free cash flow, at least temporarily.

The reductions in capex over the last few years saw operating free cash flow grow to $200 billion (19 percent of revenue) by 2010, up from $133 billion (11 percent of revenue) in 2007.

This means that global operator cash flows are now roughly at the same level as capex. In 2011-12, Wireless Intelligence has predicted operator capex to remain stable at 16 percent of total revenue in developed markets and 23 percent in developing markets. OFCF will account for close to 20 percent of total revenues in both regions.

New Zealand Mobile Operators Eye December 2012 Decision on Mobile Payments Venture

New Zealand mobile service providers say they will decide by the end of 2012 whether to create a mobile payments joint venture. 


Bank-owned Paymark, Vodafone, Telecom and 2degrees had said they wanted to form a mobile payments business in April 2012, based on use of near field communications. 


Another mobile payments trial was launched in the spring of 2012. 

Google Fiber Could Get 20% Penetration of Some Kansas City, Mo. Neighborhoods, Quickly

Within just two days, more than 20 percent of the eligible neighborhoods on the Missouri side of Kansas City already have already reached Google’s thresholds for activating home drops. If all those households actually wind up subscribing, Techcrunch reports.


Each neighborhood can have a different threshold, ranging from five percent of homes to 25 percent of homes.


Google Fiber could hit at least 20 percent penetration relatively quickly. In the neighborhood with the highest rate of interest, Google Fiber has reached about 18 percent of homes. 


You can track progress online. 


Things apparently aren’t moving quite as fast in Kansas City, Kansas, though, where the median household income is significantly lower than on the other side of the city.

Twitter Users Disrupt BBC's cycling Coverage?

Oddly enough, given concerns about broadband Internet access in London during the Olympics, the first report of any disruption has come from BBC officials who say use of Twitter, a low-bandwidth application, apparently disrupted television coverage of the cycling road races.


Apparently, updates about cyclist timing and positions were blocked when fans sent updates to Twitter while watching the race, and apparently jammed transmissions of race information.


The BBC  blamed the Olympic Broadcasting Service (OBS) for the lack of information. But the International Olympic Committee said fans sending updates to Twitter while watching the race had in effect jammed transmissions of race information.


Precisely how that can happen is not entirely clear, unless timing information was being sent using Twitter. 

WyWallet Mobile Payment Launches in Sweden

WyWallet, the mobile wallet joint venture by the four largest mobile network operators in Sweden (Telia, Tele2, Telenor and 3), has launched. The mobile wallet service is said to be the first of its kind in Sweden and will from start cover 97 percent of the mobile users in Sweden. 


WyWallet supports person-to-person money transfer, payments using text messaging, online shopping and "prepaid card top ups."


WyWallet also supports retail payments using near field communications. 


Wywallet is available on Android, iPhone and will be available for Windows Phone later in 2012.

Content Owners Wary about New Distributors, But Need Them

Hollywood studios and video entertainment service providers understandably have a wary relationship with current distributors such as cable, satellite and telco video subscription providers, as well as new distributors such as Netflix, iTunes, Amazon and others.

But there are different tensions within the ecosystem. Video service providers realize they have reached a point where higher content payments to content owners cannot continue to rise indefinitely, since those higher fee payments mean retail prices must be increased. And there are growing signs of consumer frustration over the ever-growing retail prices.

In the home video market, previously driven by sales of DVDs, sales have been falling for about three years, for the most part, even as online sales (streaming services such as Netflix) have been growing. That causes a different kind of friction between distributors and content owners.

On one hand, online delivery of movie and TV content is seen as the future, and revenue trends show the potential. On the other hand, too swift an arrival of that new business could destroy a physical delivery business that, though challenged, remains important.

That is true both of the home video business, traditionally based on sales of DVDs and to some extent by DVD rentals, as well as the bigger video subscription business.

But Netflix and even video on demand continue to grow, meaning growing tension between the legacy and new channels.


 

The digital side of the business generated $2.4 billion in the first quarter of 2012, according to the Digital Entertainment Group, representing growth of  78 percent. Subscription video on demand grew 430 percent for the first six months to $1.1 billion.

Overall U.S. home entertainment spending rose 2.5 percent to around $4.45 billion in the first quarter, according to the Digital Entertainment Group. That means home video revenue has grown for two out of three of the last quarters, a welcome change from revenue trends that had been falling for three straight years.

Since peaking at around $21.8  billion in 2004, the U.S. home entertainment industry has seen steady declines, falling  to $18.4 billion in 2011.  

And the shift top online delivery keeps growing in importance. IHS Screen Digest has  predicted that the number of movies and TV shows legally streamed and downloaded in 2012 will for the first time surpass the demand for those films and shows on physical discs.

IHS predicts that online streaming services like Netflix and Amazon Prime, Vudu and iTunes, will conduct around 3.4 billion individual U.S. movie transactions in 2012. That would be a 135 percent increase in digital home entertainment transactions over 2011. It would also surpass the 2.4 billion DVD and Blu-ray sales and rentals predicted for 2012.

And despite studio unease about Netflix, Netflix U.S. streaming revenue of $1.04 billion in the first half of 2012 might be largely responsible for the growth of content owner revenues.

Will subscription VOD ever displace content sales, in terms of profitability? Not likely, given the vast difference between margins.

The overall disc business keeps declining, with sales of physical video media dropping 3.6 percent to $3.7 billion during the first six months of 2012, while disc rentals declined 26 percent to $2.3 billion.

However, the kiosk rental business, led by Redbox, is still expanding, up 23 percent to $990 million, according to DEG.

So, like it or not, Netflix and Redbox might continue to be important partners as the future unfolds.