Why it is Difficult to Understand Mobile Payments

Some markets are hard to understand because the concepts are new or because a particular market is intertwined with other markets that also are changing. You might argue that unified communications has been that sort of market. 

But it also appears that mobile payments is that sort of business as well. At some basic level, the value proposition is unclear. Paying using a mobile device instead of cash or a debit or credit card doesn't always have immediate resonance as something that is 10 times better than existing methods of paying for retail purchases.

But part of the uncertainty is probably because retailing is changing. "Mobile commerce" is starting to show signs of merging with the broader "e-commerce" business, which in turn is starting to show signs of merging in a bigger way with physical retailing. 

In other words, m-commerce is merely another form of e-business or e-commerce. Mobile payment is part of the broader m-commerce business. So it might ultimately be the case that the specific value of "mobile payments" is clear only when the other parts of mobile commerce also are clear. 

But there is movement. Look back a decade. What was mobile commerce, really? Ringtones, initially, then downloaded songs and wallpaper. 

But mobile commerce now is viewed as something else, namely a way to use user location and analytic data, often in real time, to enable retail sales, also often in near real time. In some ways, that builds off of e-commerce, using new devices such as smart phones and tablets. 

In other ways, mobile commerce is both an extension of e-commerce and a bridge between physical and virtual retailing. If mobile payments doesn't make absolutely blinding sense, it might be because, right now, the value isn't so great. 

The value should become clearer as the broader mobile commerce trends, and the melding of physical and virtual retailing become clear as well. 

Illiad's "Free" Business is Hammering Rivals

Illiad's "Free" mobile service was intended to disrupt the French mobile market, and it seems, at least for the moment, that Illiad is succeeding. 

French conglomerate Bouygues posted sharply lower first-half profits for its second quarter of 2012, largely because of price competition from Free, which has caused the other leading mobile firms in France to cut prices. 

Bouygues also cut its annual profit forecast for its telecoms division unit by roughly 12 percent as a result of the expected competition, Reuters reports. 

Martin Bouygues, Bouygues chief executive, directly blamed Free Mobile for his company's woes.
"The difficulties we are experiencing are due to competition and the low prices charged by Free,"  the Bouygues CEO said. 

France Telecom, using the brand name "Orange," warned that it expects average revenue per user to fall by 10 percent at its domestic mobile unit Orange France in 2012, as operators engage in a price war following the entry of new low-cost operator, Iliad Group’s Free Mobile, in January. 

2.4 Billion Enterprise Smart Phone Subscribers in 2017

ABI Research estimates that by 2017, 2.4 billion employees globally will be using smart phones, growing about 17 percent a year and representing nearly three times more smart phones than used in 2012. 

Many hundreds of millions of those devices will be brought to work by people who want to use their own personal devices. So mobility suppliers and enterprises need to think in terms of serving all those employees with tools, apps, and services, even if not using company-issued devices, ABI Research says. 

Android has the dominant leadership position among the global workforce expected to grow to 56 percent by 2017. 

90% of Content Operations Move Between Devices

Metaswitch Networks thinks a key to providing more value for communications service providers is to enable sessions using multimedia to be maintained as users move between networks, devices and locations.

“Immersive multimedia telephony” (“Accession”) enables a user to move a conversation or session freely between preferred devices, and to take advantage of local network connectivity or handset capabilities, while instantly sharing content that is related to the users' actions, surroundings or needs, Metaswitch says.

A new study by Google suggests people behave that way when consuming content or conducting search operations as well, so Accession might well be something important.

“The New Multi-screen World: Understanding Cross-Platform Consumer Behavior” study found that 90 percent of people move between devices to accomplish a goal, whether that’s on smart phones, PCs, tablets or TV.

Of the 90 percent of media consumed on a screen of any type, browsing, shopping, trip planning and financial operations make sequential use of mutliple screens, much as Metaswitch enables a user to maintain a voice session initiated on a business phone, transitioned to mobile, and then finished on a home phone.

There are two primary ways people exhibit multi-screen behaviors, the study suggests. Sequential screening is when people move from one device to another to complete a single goal. Simultaneous screening occurs when people use multiple devices at the same time.

The study found that nine out of ten people use multiple screens sequentially and that smart phones are by far the most common starting point for sequential activity.

So completing a task like booking a flight online or managing personal finances doesn’t just happen in one sitting on one device. In fact, 98 percent of sequential screeners move between devices in the same day to complete a task.  

With simultaneous usage, the study found that 77 percent of viewers watching TV with another device in hand. In many cases people search on their devices, inspired by what they see on TV, the report suggests.

Sequential screeners will start interacting with an application on one device and then pick up where they left off on another, so making experiences seamless between devices is key, the study suggests.

Additionally, cross-media campaigns can help brands make the most of consumers’ simultaneous usage across screens. The study also found that when people use screens sequentially to complete an activity, they often use search to pick up where they left off.

So not only is it important for companies to allow customers to save their progress between devices, they should also use tactics like keyword parity to ensure that they can be found easily using search when that customer moves to the next device, the study suggests.

The study found that people often turn to nearby devices to complete spur-of-the-moment activity. In fact, 80 percent of the searches that happen on smart phones are spur-of-the-moment, and 44 percent of these spontaneous searches are goal-oriented, the study says.

Accession mirrors the growing trend of multiple devices being used to accomplish one goal, a trend the Google study also tends to confirm.

             

Will U.K. Business Largely Abandon Landlines Within 5 Years?

Some 65 percent of 500 U.K. chief information officers surveyed by Vanson Bourne on behalf of Virgin Media Business believe fixed network telephones “will disappear from everyday use within five years,” Virgin Media Business says.

PCs are the next most likely to become redundant according to 62 per cent of CIOs. In contrast, smart phones (13 percent) are seen as the least likely devices to be abandoned.

If those opinions wind up being correct, whether the magnitude or timing of the changes are accurate, there will be shifts of opportunity for suppliers of unified communications, business phone systems, mobile and fixed network service providers alike.

Aside from depressing sales of business phone systems, there are potentially greater opportunities for providers of hosted alternatives, especially those providers whose unified communications services are well suited to use of mobile devices.

But the impact is likely to be disparate. Some workers might find there is less need for unified communications. But call center functions obviously will continue to require a high level of support.

Collaboration functions could shift to other media types.

But if the CIOs are accurate, business voice rapidly is shifting to mobile modes, for most workers, with obvious architectural implications.

Tablet technology, on the other hand, is seen as something of a fad by about 24 percent of companies expect the devices to fall out of fashion.

By the end of 2012, 70 percent of the U.K. population is expected to have a smart device reliant on mobile connectivity, Virgin Media Business argues. Already, in the past year the amount of data consumed on the Virgin Media Business network jumped to 765 billion individual bits of data being transferred every second, erasing the previous mark for the Virgin Media Business network by 27 percent, Virgin Media Business says.

Historically, one might have argued that the higher cost of mobile calling would make it an unlikely substitute for fixed network calling. But the differences are shrinking.

The wholesale price of calling mobile phones from a landline is set to fall 85 percent by April 2015, according to  the U.K. Competition Appeals Tribunal.

The Ofcom decision to reduce mobile termination rates will mean an estimated caller savings of about  £800 million. Mobile termination rates could mean the cost of calls, on a per minute basis, would fall from 4.18p to just 0.65p.

Apple will Create its Own Wireless Network with "AirPlay Direct"

Apple wants to improve the AirPlay wireless music streaming technology, which currently requires Airplay speakers and a WiFi network. The new version will require just speakers or a stereo system and an iDevice. Reportedly, the iPhone, iPod or iPad would form its own network to allow a direct connection and music playback.

The move is expected to be announced at the launch of the new iPhone, which is widely rumoured to take place on September 12, according to the Telegraph

In its current form, AirPlay allows users to stream video, music, and other audio from their Apple devices to an Apple TV or to AirPlay-enabled speakers. This ability requires a local Wi-Fi network.

Presumably, Apple is thinking about enabling new  third party speakers to build Wi-Fi capability directly into the speakers or a receiver so that the streaming signal can be received directly from an iDevice. 

In other words, iDevices will create their own Wi-Fi network, assuming there is a backhaul or access network the iDevice can connect to. 

How Important Has App Ecosystem Become?

It is a given these days that a robust applications environment is essential for an operating system or device to attain huge success in the consumer market. What is less clear is whether any device manufacturer "needs" its own app ecosystem, or can succeed by leveraging the OS ecosystem. 

A somewhat related question is whether other participants in the mobile business "need" their own ecosystems to enhance their specific roles within the ecosystem. The value and feasibility of mobile service provider app stores provides an example. 

Samsung also is a case in point. Up to this point, Samsung has achieved significant success in the smart phone business by leveraging Android and the Android apps ecosystem. One might argue that nothing has changed, just because of the Apple patent infringement win. 

Google Play arguably provides equal benefit to every manufacturer of Android handsets. And, at least so far, it is hard to see that Google's ownership of Motorola has bestowed any particular advantage on Motorola, or any particular disadvantage to any Android licensee. 

Microsoft does face a problem, though, in building a critical mass of developers and apps for Windows Mobile. It's just a classic "chicken and egg" problem. Developers don't have lots of incentive to develop for an ecosystem with negligible numbers of users. Users don't have unusual incentives to buy a device using an OS that has significantly fewer apps available. 

That doesn't mean Microsoft can't get it done, but the end user device installed base will matter.