Wednesday, October 3, 2012

Clearwire May Delay LTE Network Build

Clearwire says it is evaluating its Long Term Evolution 4G network plans, to align spending with expected revenue, and "may elect to delay a portion of our deployment schedule accordingly."

In one sense, that is not helpful to Clearwire  at a time when other mobile service providers are building their LTE networks as fast as they can. On the other hand, helpful or not, Clearwire cannot afford to spend more capital than it has access to, even if it would prefer to build faster. 

Clearwire has said it will begin building the LTE network early in 2013 and have 5,000 LTE sites up by middle of 2013.

Clearwire had $1.2 billion in cash at the end of the second quarter and, based on its needs, had enough cash for "at least" the next 12 months. The company, which holds a large chunk of wireless airwave licenses, also has said it could sell assets to raise cash.

As a practical matter, Clearwire might ultimately wind up functioning as a "spot supplier" of additional LTE capacity in markets with heavy usage, rather than as a complete national network using only its own facilities. 

That would not be an unusual pattern in the industry, where virtually no networks have network everywhere. Such a plan also would better match the capital Clearwire seems to have available.  

Combined T-Mobile USA, MetroPCS Spectrum Holdings

This map of combined spectrum holdings of a merged T-Mobile USA and MetroPCS suggests that in a few markets--Los Angeles, San Francisco, Dallas, Boston, Detroit, Atlanta and Miami--the new company will have more than 70 MHz of capacity.

The impact elsewhere will be helpful, but less startling. MetroPCS has very good coverage in 14 city networks, including New York, San Francisco, and much of Florida,
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Here's how AT&T once described its spectrum position, compared to other carriers, on a national basis (there are many local variations). The older AT&T chart does show why the merger is a big deal. Look at where T-Mobile USA stands, by itself. The MetroPCS spectrum, in some areas, is much larger. 

Roaming Revenue $80 Billion in 2017

Not all revenue earned in the global communications business, either fixed or mobile, comes from retail end users. Some portion of revenues comes from business partners, especially other service providers. In the global mobile business, roaming revenue paid by one carrier to another averages about eight percent of total revenue.

A new report from Juniper Research values mobile roaming revenues at more than $80 billion by 2017, compared to over $46 billion in 2012. Those revenues are driven by increasing data usage, but lower per-unit revenues.

Historically, roaming revenues have been earned by out of region mobile service providers who allow another network’s users access to the local network when those users are out of region. The new change is that customer access to out of region data networks, either mobile or Wi-Fi, is generating roaming revenue for the out of region suppliers.

T-Mobile USA to Become a Bigger "Number 4" Mobile Provider

The boards of Deutsche Telekom and MetroPCS Communications have approved a deal to merge MetroPCS with the German operator's U.S. subsidiary, T-Mobile USA, WSJ.com reports.

The deal would not change T-Mobile USA's installed base, compared to AT&T, Verizon and Sprint, but would narrow the gap with Sprint. The new entity would have about 42 million customers, up from 33 million.

Somewhat oddly, there have not been an immediate raft of objections that such a merger will be problematic becasue T-Mobile USA uses the GSM air interface, and MetroPCS uses CDMA.

In the past, every time rumors have arisen about Sprint buying T-Mobile USA, or merging the two companies, there have been immediate objections that the task of integrating the two companies would be technologically complex.

In the future, of course, all the U.S. mobile service providers will be using Long Term Evolution, so incompatible air interfaces will be a lesser problem over time, and then at some point, not much of a problem at all.

As a long term matter, many observers would say a stable mobile market in the United States would feature no more than three leading providers. That, if correct, suggests further consolidation will happen, even if the U.S. Justice Department already believes the market is too concentrated.

Carrier, Not Just Enterprise Hardware Changes with Cloud

Enterprise hardware platforms change with a switch to cloud computing, namely removing the need to tie applications and functions to discrete bits of dedicated hardware. In a cloud computing scenario, all those applications are computing "instances" run on virtual machines.

Metaswitch Networks Chief Technology Officer Martin Taylor says that means about a 30-percent performance hit, compared with running an app on a dedicated piece of hardware.  But the cost of computing drops every 18 months, so that isn't much of a financial issue. You just throw more processors at the problem.

Of course, technology changes often underpin potential changes of business model or operations. In a cloud environment, users extrapolate apps and execution of processes from physical devices and, potentially, locations.

Computing and app delivery itself becomes an "over the top" process. And that could have lots of implications for business models. Notably, communications access providers traditionally have operated on a territorial basis. Cloud computing makes that unnecessary, or simply a business model choice.
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Did British Telecom Inflate Rural Broadband Costs to Win Higher Subsidies?

The U.K. government is going to subsidize the national broadband network in rural areas by giving £1billion to BT to connect about 12 million households in the countryside. Half of the money is coming from the U.K. government, and half from local taxes.

However according to a leaked document purportedly from a briefing for officials at the Culture, Media and Sport department, one expert at least charges that BT is overcharging, using a mark up of up to 80 percent.

BT denies the charge, of course.

Tuesday, October 2, 2012

18% to 25% of U.S. Adults Now Own Tablets

Over the last year, tablet ownership has steadily increased from 11 percent of U.S. adults in July of 2011 to 18 percent in January of 2012, according to the Pew Research Center Project for Excellence in Journalism.

Currently, 22 percent own a tablet and another three percent regularly use a tablet owned by someone else in the home. A separate survey by the Pew Internet & American Life Project found 25 percent of all U.S. adults have a tablet computer.



The growth in tablet adoption is likely related to the advent of the lower-priced tablets in late 2011, Pew researchers believe. Overall, 68 percent of respondents got their tablet in the last year.

About 52 percent of tablet owners report owning an iPad, compared with 81 percent in the survey a year ago.

Android-based devices make up the bulk of the remaining tablet ownership, 48 percent overall, dominated largely by the Kindle Fire.

Some 21 percent own a Kindle Fire, eight percent own the Samsung Galaxy,

Will AI Fuel a Huge "Services into Products" Shift?

As content streaming has disrupted music, is disrupting video and television, so might AI potentially disrupt industry leaders ranging from ...