On a global basis, there will be more satellite subscription TV customers than cable TV customers by about 2016, Infonetics Research now predicts. Monday, November 26, 2012
Globally, Satellite TV Subs will Surpass Cable TV Subs in 2016
On a global basis, there will be more satellite subscription TV customers than cable TV customers by about 2016, Infonetics Research now predicts. 
Gary Kim has been a digital infra analyst and journalist for more than 30 years, covering the business impact of technology, pre- and post-internet. He sees a similar evolution coming with AI. General-purpose technologies do not come along very often, but when they do, they change life, economies and industries.
Half of all Mobiles Will Use 3G, 4G networks by 2017
About half of all mobile devices in use in 2017 will use either 3G or 4G networks according to Wireless Intelligence. About 40 percent of connections will use 3G. About half will use 2G. Fourth generation networks will support about 10 percent of connections.
Gary Kim has been a digital infra analyst and journalist for more than 30 years, covering the business impact of technology, pre- and post-internet. He sees a similar evolution coming with AI. General-purpose technologies do not come along very often, but when they do, they change life, economies and industries.
U.K. Mobile Operator Three Launches M2M Platform
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| m2m revenue forecast worldwide in billion EUR |
Ericsson is providing the platform, said to enable MVNOs launching M2M services to do so in just two weeks time.
Three partners get their own branded portal, the ability to activate and deactivate their own connections, apply data caps and track data usage.
Most researchers believe M2M will be a big market for mobile service providers.
Gary Kim has been a digital infra analyst and journalist for more than 30 years, covering the business impact of technology, pre- and post-internet. He sees a similar evolution coming with AI. General-purpose technologies do not come along very often, but when they do, they change life, economies and industries.
Mobile Service Provider Capex Will Shift to Small Cells by 2014
Joe Madden of Mobile Experts thinks the global mobile service provider industry is about to enter a period where capital investment shifts to smaller cells. To be sure, 2012 seemed to see a waning of capital investment, with 12 percent lower RF transceiver shipments than 2011.
Madden says that fits a pattern of investment in transmission facilities that has been typical of second generation and third generation networks.
He calls the pattern a "two hump camel.” The first hump reflects the initial build. About four years later, those initial systems are upgraded with additional radio capacity and additional towers, and the second "hump" begins.
Of course, many service providers globally are on the cusp of major investments for Long Term Evolution. But global economic uncertainty appears to be causing a delay in capital investment, either in the form of additional 3G base stations or new LTE base stations, Madden argues.
The next big upsurge in investment will occur about 2014 or 2015, when consumers start to complain about performance. At that point, mobile service providers will turn to small cells for their 3G and LTE networks. Madden predicts more than nine million carrier-grade capacity small cells will therefore be deployed during 2017.
Madden says that fits a pattern of investment in transmission facilities that has been typical of second generation and third generation networks.
He calls the pattern a "two hump camel.” The first hump reflects the initial build. About four years later, those initial systems are upgraded with additional radio capacity and additional towers, and the second "hump" begins.
Of course, many service providers globally are on the cusp of major investments for Long Term Evolution. But global economic uncertainty appears to be causing a delay in capital investment, either in the form of additional 3G base stations or new LTE base stations, Madden argues.
The next big upsurge in investment will occur about 2014 or 2015, when consumers start to complain about performance. At that point, mobile service providers will turn to small cells for their 3G and LTE networks. Madden predicts more than nine million carrier-grade capacity small cells will therefore be deployed during 2017.
Gary Kim has been a digital infra analyst and journalist for more than 30 years, covering the business impact of technology, pre- and post-internet. He sees a similar evolution coming with AI. General-purpose technologies do not come along very often, but when they do, they change life, economies and industries.
How Much Mobile Traffic Can be Offloaded to Wi-Fi?
How much smart phone traffic can be offloaded to Wi-Fi is uncertain, at this point, though it already is clear that perhaps a majority of at-home smart phone usage routinely is shifted to Wi-Fi access.
The bigger question is how much "out and about" usage might be shifted to Wi-Fi, particularly in urban areas. That might affect the deployment of small cells that also support Wi-Fi.
Softbank in Japan has tested the offload potential of dense Wi-Fi deployments and apparently has concluded that less than 25 percent of mobile data traffic can be offloaded to public Wi-Fi in the long term.
Those estimates correspond with figures Boingo suggests. Boingo believes about 22 percent of mobile traffic will be offloaded to Wi-Fi by about 2016.
Others might disagree. Cisco analysts say as much as 30 percent of mobile traffic could occur on Wi-Fi networks. And analysts at Juniper Research think more than 60 percent of mobile device traffic could be offloaded to Wi-Fi means by about 2015.
Others say studies show as much as 70 percent of smart phone traffic uses a Wi-Fi connection.
The bigger question is how much "out and about" usage might be shifted to Wi-Fi, particularly in urban areas. That might affect the deployment of small cells that also support Wi-Fi.
Softbank in Japan has tested the offload potential of dense Wi-Fi deployments and apparently has concluded that less than 25 percent of mobile data traffic can be offloaded to public Wi-Fi in the long term.
Those estimates correspond with figures Boingo suggests. Boingo believes about 22 percent of mobile traffic will be offloaded to Wi-Fi by about 2016.
Others might disagree. Cisco analysts say as much as 30 percent of mobile traffic could occur on Wi-Fi networks. And analysts at Juniper Research think more than 60 percent of mobile device traffic could be offloaded to Wi-Fi means by about 2015.
Others say studies show as much as 70 percent of smart phone traffic uses a Wi-Fi connection.
Gary Kim has been a digital infra analyst and journalist for more than 30 years, covering the business impact of technology, pre- and post-internet. He sees a similar evolution coming with AI. General-purpose technologies do not come along very often, but when they do, they change life, economies and industries.
Service Providers Don't Always Pick Technology Winners
For those who can remember widespread cable operator interest in "interactive TV," dating back to the 1980s, there is a lesson. Service providers are not always "right" about what consumers want, or how to supply the demand.
The early thinking was that people wanted, and would use, interactive features built around the video experience, using the TV, remote control and cable box as enablers.
As it turns out, people do "interact" or "augment" video programming, but in a way not foreseen: they use their PCs, tablets and smart phones to multitask. In other words, they "do other things" while watching TV.
But they do not really want to interact directly with video content. The lesson is that suppliers do not always understand what it is that people might want to do. So the instinctive response is to ask people what they want, what they might pay for experiences and how they want those experiences delivered.
But consumers nearly always have a tough time figuring out how they might use a product they never have seen. In such cases, asking doesn't help. Steve Jobs, former CEO of Apple, perhaps was the foremost practitioner of a skeptical approach to asking people what they want.
The early thinking was that people wanted, and would use, interactive features built around the video experience, using the TV, remote control and cable box as enablers.
As it turns out, people do "interact" or "augment" video programming, but in a way not foreseen: they use their PCs, tablets and smart phones to multitask. In other words, they "do other things" while watching TV.
But they do not really want to interact directly with video content. The lesson is that suppliers do not always understand what it is that people might want to do. So the instinctive response is to ask people what they want, what they might pay for experiences and how they want those experiences delivered.
But consumers nearly always have a tough time figuring out how they might use a product they never have seen. In such cases, asking doesn't help. Steve Jobs, former CEO of Apple, perhaps was the foremost practitioner of a skeptical approach to asking people what they want.
Gary Kim has been a digital infra analyst and journalist for more than 30 years, covering the business impact of technology, pre- and post-internet. He sees a similar evolution coming with AI. General-purpose technologies do not come along very often, but when they do, they change life, economies and industries.
Android, Apple iPhone: Key Mobile Shopping Differences
IBM’s Digital Analytics Benchmark reported U.S. Black Friday sales and the news is reasonably good. Overall online sales grew by 17.4 percent while mobile sales grew to make up 24 percent of traffic. That probably does not come as a surprise.
The study suggests 75 percent of the activity was from PCs. Of the mobile activity, a highly disproportionate share was conducted by owners of Apple iPhones. That is more notable.
Apple iPhone owners were nearly four times more likely to conduct transactions using their devices, compared to Android owners.
What nobody can tell, at this point, is whether those differences are due to some key difference in user interface, activity preferences or are more related to differences in end user personal wealth, or something else.
The study suggests 75 percent of the activity was from PCs. Of the mobile activity, a highly disproportionate share was conducted by owners of Apple iPhones. That is more notable.
Apple iPhone owners were nearly four times more likely to conduct transactions using their devices, compared to Android owners.
What nobody can tell, at this point, is whether those differences are due to some key difference in user interface, activity preferences or are more related to differences in end user personal wealth, or something else.
Gary Kim has been a digital infra analyst and journalist for more than 30 years, covering the business impact of technology, pre- and post-internet. He sees a similar evolution coming with AI. General-purpose technologies do not come along very often, but when they do, they change life, economies and industries.
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