Does Apple Have to "Lead" in Language Models? Maybe Not

Some observers might argue Apple is “behind” in the artificial intelligence chatbot “race,” suggesting this is a problem. It might be, if Apple were really trying to claim leadership of the frontier language model business, and if Apple needed to do so. 

Other observers might note that Apple has not, as a company, been “first” with an innovation very often, instead emphasizing products whose key attribute is ease of use. In other words, the strategy is “make it better,” rather than “be first.” 

And although some of the hyperscalers act as though first mover advantage in general purpose language models does matter for future market leadership, it remains a historical fact that, in the computing industry, first movers (companies that pioneer a new product category or market) rarely retain market share leadership as the market matures. 

A study  by Golder and Tellis (2004), analyzing over 500 brands in 50 product categories (many tech-related), found that first movers had a 47 percent failure rate and an average market share of just 10 percent. 

Market/Category	First Mover	Key Details	Why They Lost Leadership	Current Leader(s)
Web Browsers	Netscape (Navigator, 1994)	Launched the first commercial web browser, capturing 75% market share initially.	Bundled competition (e.g., Microsoft's Internet Explorer) and failure to innovate led to decline; share fell to near zero by 2003.	Google (Chrome)
Social Networking	Friendster (2002) / MySpace (2003)	Friendster was the first modern social network; MySpace quickly overtook but peaked at 115M users.	Poor user experience, spam, and slower adaptation to mobile/privacy needs; both faded as market matured.	Meta (Facebook)
Search Engines	WebCrawler / AltaVista (1994-1995)	Early search engines indexing the web; AltaVista handled 500M queries/day at peak.	Inferior algorithms and ad-heavy interfaces; acquired and mismanaged as market exploded.	Google
Hard Drives	IBM (1950s)	Invented the first commercial hard disk drive (RAMAC, 1956).	Failed to scale for PCs/laptops; sold business to Hitachi in 2002 amid commoditization.	Seagate, Western Digital
Spreadsheets	VisiCalc (1979)	First electronic spreadsheet for personal computers.	Limited to Apple II; outcompeted by multi-platform alternatives like Lotus 1-2-3.	Microsoft (Excel)
PDAs / Smartphones	Palm (Pilot, 1996) / IBM (Simon, 1994)	IBM Simon was the first smartphone; Palm popularized PDAs.	Slow to integrate phones/internet; acquired and declined as touchscreens rose.	Apple (iPhone), Samsung/Google (Android)

The caveat might be that the general-purpose language model business will move so fast that the first mover will create and sustain permanent advantage, to the extent that can happen. 

In the computing or technology businesses, moving “early” seems to offer more long-term advantages, though. The Golder and Tellis study still suggests that early market leaders (not necessarily the absolute first) had an eight percent failure rate and 28 percent average share. 

And, in some cases, first movers do sustain market share leadership for quite some time. 

Market/Category	First Mover	Key Details	How They Retained Leadership	Current Status
Semiconductors (DRAM)	Samsung Electronics (early 1990s)	First to mass-produce 16M DRAM chips (1991); led in memory tech since 1992.	Fast parallel development, cross-functional teams, and aggressive R&D investment; shaped industry standards.	~40-50% global DRAM share; leader in mature market.
Microprocessors (x86)	Intel (1971)	Invented the first commercial microprocessor (4004); dominated PC/server CPUs.	Patented architecture, massive scale economies, and ecosystem lock-in (e.g., Windows compatibility).	~70-80% PC CPU share; still leads despite AMD/ARM competition.
Online Retail Platforms	Amazon (1995)	First major online bookstore; expanded to e-commerce platform.	Built logistics network, customer data advantages, and AWS cloud; preempted scale.	~40% U.S. e-commerce share; dominant in matured digital retail.

In markets characterized by rapid innovation and low barriers to entry, followers can learn from pioneers' mistakes, improve offerings, and capture share. But the general-purpose language model is quite capital intensive, creating significant entry barriers. 

Still, the Golder and Tellis study might suggest fairly high odds that early movers in the language model space will be among the mature market leaders. 

For Apple, the issue is whether it needs to be a leader in that market. For some of the leading contenders, their core revenue streams come from advertising, commerce, software or hosted computing services that might well be disrupted or enhanced if the firms also lead in language model share. 

Apple’s business is centered on devices. It might not need to lead in language models. It might only need to incorporate such features in its core products.