In most countries around Europe, mobile voice minutes of contracted up to 4.5 percent quarter-on-quarter, in the third quarter of 2012. Similarly, text messaging was down between -0.5 percent and -7.8 percent, quarter over quarter, ABI Research says.
Monthly average revenue for Western European service providers also continued to decline in the third quarter of 2012.
Significant regional variations can and do exist in the global telecom business, though. The largest U.S. mobile providers, for example, seem to be able, at least for the moment, to turn in predictable growth in revenue, quarter after quarter, as third quarter 2012 Verizon financial results indicate.
In Western Europe, competition is having the opposite effect, reducing revenue. In fact, argues STL Partners, mobile service provides in Spain, Italy, France, Germany and the United Kingdom stand to lose as much as 50 billion euros over the next seven or so years.
Verizon, in contrast, reported double-digit increases in operating income and earnings. Wireless segment revenue grew more than seven percent, year over year, while prepaid wireless revenue grew nearly 43 percent, year over year. Fixed network revenue in the consumer segment also grew, despite the ongoing trend of voice line abandonment.
Tuesday, January 8, 2013
Europe Mobile Voice Calling Minutes Declined 4.5% in 3rd Quarter 2012
Gary Kim has been a digital infra analyst and journalist for more than 30 years, covering the business impact of technology, pre- and post-internet. He sees a similar evolution coming with AI. General-purpose technologies do not come along very often, but when they do, they change life, economies and industries.
AT&T Announces Record Smartphone Sales
AT&T says it sold more than 10 million smart phones in the fourth quarter of 2012, topping its previous record quarter of 9.4 million, set in the fourth quarter of 2011. This included best-ever quarterly sales of Android and Apple smart phones.
That said, the rest of world is where smart phone growth will be most extensive over the next decade.
In part, that is because there are so many feature phones in use that can be upgraded.
Gary Kim has been a digital infra analyst and journalist for more than 30 years, covering the business impact of technology, pre- and post-internet. He sees a similar evolution coming with AI. General-purpose technologies do not come along very often, but when they do, they change life, economies and industries.
CES is "Post Smart Phone"
It is starting to look as though CES is not a "mobile" show, in the sense of it being a venue where major mobile product, software or service introductions should be expected. In that sense, it makes more sense that CES staffers talk about having reached the "post smart phone era."
What they might really mean is that CES has reached the post smart phone era. To be sure, there will still be reasons for many whose business is consumer electronics other than phones and tablets and mobility to be there.
But the time when either computing devices or phones were key elements of the meeting likely has passed.
I learned many years ago that when a smart and experienced executive says "something cannot be done," that statement has to be interpreted. It means "my organization cannot do that."
Such statements never reflect another firm's ability to achieve something, only one specific entity's inability to do so. One might note that CES also is "post PC" in the same sense. What is really important for the future of computing probably does not show up at CES, either.
In a similar manner, CES now appears to be unable to sell itself as a major venue for "mobile" interests. So there is a reason why CES staffers might say the "world has gone post smart phone."
What that really means is only that CES has gone "post smart phone," in the sense of not being a place smart phone interests "need to be."
What they might really mean is that CES has reached the post smart phone era. To be sure, there will still be reasons for many whose business is consumer electronics other than phones and tablets and mobility to be there.
But the time when either computing devices or phones were key elements of the meeting likely has passed.
I learned many years ago that when a smart and experienced executive says "something cannot be done," that statement has to be interpreted. It means "my organization cannot do that."
Such statements never reflect another firm's ability to achieve something, only one specific entity's inability to do so. One might note that CES also is "post PC" in the same sense. What is really important for the future of computing probably does not show up at CES, either.
In a similar manner, CES now appears to be unable to sell itself as a major venue for "mobile" interests. So there is a reason why CES staffers might say the "world has gone post smart phone."
What that really means is only that CES has gone "post smart phone," in the sense of not being a place smart phone interests "need to be."
2. Mobile devices will exceed PCs and Internet Desktops over time. Morgan Stanley expects 10+ Billion devices till 2020:
Mobile devices are not limited to smartphones or tablets. It is a broader range like eReaders, MP3, Cell Phone, Car Electronics, Games, Wireless Home Appliances etc.
3. Tablets are the biggest driver today and gain momentum in the enterprise as well.
4. The majority of time spent on PCs is consuming content which has a significant usage overlap with mobile devices. Tablets will reduce the PC consumption usage over time.
Gary Kim has been a digital infra analyst and journalist for more than 30 years, covering the business impact of technology, pre- and post-internet. He sees a similar evolution coming with AI. General-purpose technologies do not come along very often, but when they do, they change life, economies and industries.
Mobile’s Future is Changing "Offline," Not "Online"
Some, including entrepreneur Edward Aten, think mobile will be disruptive to the extent it solves "offline" problems for people, not "online" issues.
In other words, the big opportunities are not so much in making the smart phone a better screen and experience, but making it a tool to solve problems of friction, inefficiency, incomplete information, tedium and excess capacity in the offline world.
So the real value is less in the way a smart phone functions as a smaller-screen version of a PC, and more in the way mobility gets applied to solve a wider range of real-world problems in real time.
Unlike some who casually say the "smart phone era is ending," Aten and others believe it is just beginning. That would tend to match past experience with really transforming technology. The benefits frequently are not seen for quite some time.
The perhaps classic example is the "productivity revolution" personal computers were supposed to bring. Lots of people have studies the matter and been puzzled as to why the expected gains were not seen, even after decades of heavy investment.
Technology adoption only improves productivity if it is accompanied by concurrent changes in the way work is done, way work is organized.
For example, many would note that there was a substantial increase in productivity during the twenty-year stretch from 1980 to 2000, fueled by companies' investments in enterprise-wide information technology.
But some research has found scant evidence of major change in the 1980s, and highly-concentrated changes in the 1990s. In other words, a decade passed with very modest apparent gains, and even in the 1990s, when some vertical markets saw big gains, many other sectors really did not benefit very much.
In fact, just six industry segments showed clear evidence of productivity impact: semiconductors, wholesale, securities, retail, computer manufacturing and telecom (specifically "mobile").
But McKinsey analysts point out that there were several driving forces in each industry, that those forces were not the same in each industry, and that information technology was but one of several apparent drivers of productivity growth.
'However, McKinsey research on the returns generated by these investments found that productivity growth occurred only when the technology was accompanied by thoughtful business process innovations tailored to sector- and company-specific business processes.
In fact, technology adoption alone, without the accompanying changes in work practices, had little or even a negative impact on productivity.
One might therefore argue that mobile technology's ability to significantly disrupt various industries will hinge on how much each of those industries can reorganize its processes to adapt to mobility.
History suggests progress will be uneven.
In other words, the big opportunities are not so much in making the smart phone a better screen and experience, but making it a tool to solve problems of friction, inefficiency, incomplete information, tedium and excess capacity in the offline world.
So the real value is less in the way a smart phone functions as a smaller-screen version of a PC, and more in the way mobility gets applied to solve a wider range of real-world problems in real time.
Unlike some who casually say the "smart phone era is ending," Aten and others believe it is just beginning. That would tend to match past experience with really transforming technology. The benefits frequently are not seen for quite some time.
The perhaps classic example is the "productivity revolution" personal computers were supposed to bring. Lots of people have studies the matter and been puzzled as to why the expected gains were not seen, even after decades of heavy investment.
Technology adoption only improves productivity if it is accompanied by concurrent changes in the way work is done, way work is organized.
For example, many would note that there was a substantial increase in productivity during the twenty-year stretch from 1980 to 2000, fueled by companies' investments in enterprise-wide information technology.
But some research has found scant evidence of major change in the 1980s, and highly-concentrated changes in the 1990s. In other words, a decade passed with very modest apparent gains, and even in the 1990s, when some vertical markets saw big gains, many other sectors really did not benefit very much.
In fact, just six industry segments showed clear evidence of productivity impact: semiconductors, wholesale, securities, retail, computer manufacturing and telecom (specifically "mobile").
But McKinsey analysts point out that there were several driving forces in each industry, that those forces were not the same in each industry, and that information technology was but one of several apparent drivers of productivity growth.
'However, McKinsey research on the returns generated by these investments found that productivity growth occurred only when the technology was accompanied by thoughtful business process innovations tailored to sector- and company-specific business processes.
In fact, technology adoption alone, without the accompanying changes in work practices, had little or even a negative impact on productivity.
One might therefore argue that mobile technology's ability to significantly disrupt various industries will hinge on how much each of those industries can reorganize its processes to adapt to mobility.
History suggests progress will be uneven.
Gary Kim has been a digital infra analyst and journalist for more than 30 years, covering the business impact of technology, pre- and post-internet. He sees a similar evolution coming with AI. General-purpose technologies do not come along very often, but when they do, they change life, economies and industries.
Monday, January 7, 2013
Are We Already in the “Post Smart Phone Era?”
Have we now entered the “post smart phone” era? So says Shawn DuBravac, chief economist at the Consumer Electronics Association. "I think we are entering a post-smartphone era," he said.
Basically what DuBravac appears to mean is simply that 65 percent of time spent on smartphones now is is "non communication activities." The appellation “post smart phone era” simply reflects the fact that communications functions such as calls and texting are no longer the main focus for smart phones.
“The smartphone has become the viewfinder of your digital life,” said DuBravac. Aside from adding one more catchy phrase, it isn’t so clear that the appellation has too much meaning, though.
To be sure, some have used that phrase to describe the next era of computing form factors. It is rather likely that such use of the term is premature, though.
It’s a bit like people talking about “Web 3.0” even before “Web 2.0,” whatever you think that entails, was firmly established.
CEA seems to base the nomenclature on an overall shift in the technology market’s focus away from hardware and toward apps. That’s reasonable. But no more reasonable or accurate than saying computing architecture is shifting to cloud mechanisms.
Nor can we discern much even by looking at device sales. To be sure, IHS iSuppli predicts global smart phone shipments will rise by 28 percent in 2013 to 836 million units, up from 654 million in 2012, at a time when smart phone penetration in most regions of the globe remains at 20 percent or less.
But an “era” of computing should be generally recognized by most people, not something we debate. Nor do the lead apps used by any class of computing devices over time necessarily define a computing era, though that is a more-logical way of defining a computing era.
By such standards, we cannot tell what the developing era “after the PC” will look like, much less be called. To be sure, the argument that we are entering a post-PC era makes more sense.
It surely is fun, but not actually so helpful, to declare even that the “smart phone era” is ending.
Basically what DuBravac appears to mean is simply that 65 percent of time spent on smartphones now is is "non communication activities." The appellation “post smart phone era” simply reflects the fact that communications functions such as calls and texting are no longer the main focus for smart phones.
“The smartphone has become the viewfinder of your digital life,” said DuBravac. Aside from adding one more catchy phrase, it isn’t so clear that the appellation has too much meaning, though.
To be sure, some have used that phrase to describe the next era of computing form factors. It is rather likely that such use of the term is premature, though.
It’s a bit like people talking about “Web 3.0” even before “Web 2.0,” whatever you think that entails, was firmly established.
CEA seems to base the nomenclature on an overall shift in the technology market’s focus away from hardware and toward apps. That’s reasonable. But no more reasonable or accurate than saying computing architecture is shifting to cloud mechanisms.
Nor can we discern much even by looking at device sales. To be sure, IHS iSuppli predicts global smart phone shipments will rise by 28 percent in 2013 to 836 million units, up from 654 million in 2012, at a time when smart phone penetration in most regions of the globe remains at 20 percent or less.
But an “era” of computing should be generally recognized by most people, not something we debate. Nor do the lead apps used by any class of computing devices over time necessarily define a computing era, though that is a more-logical way of defining a computing era.
By such standards, we cannot tell what the developing era “after the PC” will look like, much less be called. To be sure, the argument that we are entering a post-PC era makes more sense.
It surely is fun, but not actually so helpful, to declare even that the “smart phone era” is ending.
Gary Kim has been a digital infra analyst and journalist for more than 30 years, covering the business impact of technology, pre- and post-internet. He sees a similar evolution coming with AI. General-purpose technologies do not come along very often, but when they do, they change life, economies and industries.
None of the Internet's 4 Leaders are at CES. Really
None of them are at the Consumer Electronics Show 2013. Some might make an argument for either Microsoft or Samsung as a potential fifth, but those are highly contestable assertions.
Mostly everybody agrees that the four horsemen of the Internet are Apple, Amazon, Facebook and Google.
You can make your own assessments of what that might mean in the future for a meeting that historically has touted "consumer electronics." Over the years have featured TVs and video entertainment technology, then computers, then mobile phones and now might be adding tablets.
But lots of the attention this year, to the extent there is a clear theme, seems to be reverting back to TVs and applications that run on TVs. And that might tell you something. Many of us cannot think of a better venue for TVs.
But lots of us would argue that in a world where so much of the value of anything people do with Internet-connected appliances rests with software, CES is losing a good deal of relevance. That none of the "four horsemen" feel they "must" be there tells you something.
It used to be the case that only Apple was the major player without a presence. These days, the absences are more telling.
Back closer to the turn of the century, any discussion of the "four horsemen of the Internet" would have featured names such as Cisco, EMC, Oracle and Sun Microsystems.
Perhaps nine years later, all the names have changed.
Gary Kim has been a digital infra analyst and journalist for more than 30 years, covering the business impact of technology, pre- and post-internet. He sees a similar evolution coming with AI. General-purpose technologies do not come along very often, but when they do, they change life, economies and industries.
Mobile Industry is Shifting to Vertical, Rather than Horizontal Revenue Opportunities
It would be a reasonable assumption that many emerging revenue opportunities for mobile service providers are of the "vertical," rather than "horizontal" type. In other words, services for specific industry verticals (automobiles, home security, energy, transportation) will drive new revenue opportunities, not generic horizontal applications such as "broadband access" or voice or messaging.
Some might consider Sirius XM a play on "radio," the analogy being that Sirius XM is to radio as cable TV is to broadcast TV. But Sirius XM also is a vertical play on the automobile vertical, as growth traditionally is driven by "car-deployed" receivers.
Much activity at AT&T and Verizon, as well as other service providers, now is shifting to vertical, rather than horizontal apps.
The three areas AT&T is emphasizing at its developer conference indicate the areas AT&T believes are fruitful new revenue sources for the company. "Digital Life" is for the moment highly focused on home automation applications that work with user mobile devices.
"Mobile Payments" suggests another area AT&T considers fruitful, and obviously will include the Isis mobile wallet system, and probably future mobile commerce elements as well.
The "Connected Car" initiative illustrates the new role of the automotive vertical in thinking about new machine-to-machine initiatives.
Verizon also thinks the "connected car" market is an important part of the broader machine-to-machine business.
Some might consider Sirius XM a play on "radio," the analogy being that Sirius XM is to radio as cable TV is to broadcast TV. But Sirius XM also is a vertical play on the automobile vertical, as growth traditionally is driven by "car-deployed" receivers.
Much activity at AT&T and Verizon, as well as other service providers, now is shifting to vertical, rather than horizontal apps.
The three areas AT&T is emphasizing at its developer conference indicate the areas AT&T believes are fruitful new revenue sources for the company. "Digital Life" is for the moment highly focused on home automation applications that work with user mobile devices.
"Mobile Payments" suggests another area AT&T considers fruitful, and obviously will include the Isis mobile wallet system, and probably future mobile commerce elements as well.
The "Connected Car" initiative illustrates the new role of the automotive vertical in thinking about new machine-to-machine initiatives.
Verizon also thinks the "connected car" market is an important part of the broader machine-to-machine business.
Gary Kim has been a digital infra analyst and journalist for more than 30 years, covering the business impact of technology, pre- and post-internet. He sees a similar evolution coming with AI. General-purpose technologies do not come along very often, but when they do, they change life, economies and industries.
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