Will U.S. Mobile Market be Lead by 2, 3 or 4 Providers?

There’s an inherent tension between promotion of competition and the normal and expected working of any market. 

In fact, one might well argue that market concentration is the inevitable result of consumers making choices. In other words, people buy the products and services they consider better.

That inevitably means the less-preferred providers go out of business or are bought by the more-successful suppliers. 

That leads to market concentration, and at some point, a reduction of competition and the benefits competition normally brings.

That sooner or later leads to regulatory action to break up successful firms and reignite competition, whereupon the cycle starts again. Telecommunications is the sort of industry, though, that causes issues.

It is a capital-intensive business, and like most capital-intensive businesses, has high barriers to entry. That means, under even the best of circumstances, that there will be relatively few suppliers in a market, because the market simply cannot support more than a handful.

The issue is “how many” firms it takes to sustain reasonable levels of competition. In France, the minimum number of suppliers in the mobile market is deemed to be four. 

In other markets, the number might be three. It is probably unlikely that the number two will be viewed as so reasonable.

So consolidation in Canada, the United States, France or anywhere else is pretty much just part of the normal dynamics of any competitive market. But it isn't so clear just how much consolidation regulators will permit.

The biggest question is whether U.S. regulators would allow Sprint and T-Mobile USA to merge, a possibility executives of both companies have talked about. The Department of Justice seems to be signaling that it would not allow such a merger.

Some think such a merger would not be approved, based

on the market concentration formula used by the DoJ and Federal Communications Commission.

Global Undersea Bandwidth Growth Shifts to Emerging Regions

Though overall demand for international bandwidth grew 39 percent in 2012, supply grew most strongly on routes connecting to emerging markets in Asia, Africa, the Middle East, and Latin America, TeleGeography says.

While bandwidth demand on the trans-Atlantic route--long the world’s highest-capacity route-- increased 36 percent annually between 2007 and 2012, demand for bandwidth from the United States to Latin America grew 70 percent per year over the same period,

At the same time, demand for capacity on the Europe-Asia route by way of Egypt grew 87 percent per year.

Carriers have kept up with increasing bandwidth demand by building new cables and upgrading existing systems, deploying a total of 54 Tbps of new capacity between 2007 and 2012, TeleGeography says. Over time, more of that capacity has been added on the routes connecting to emerging markets.

Between 1997 and 2002, the amount of new capacity deployed across the Atlantic was greater than the amount deployed on the trans-Pacific, US-Latin America, Intra-Asia, and Europe-Asia routes, combined.

Between 2002 and 2007, nearly half of all new capacity was deployed on the trans-Atlantic route.

Since 2007, each of the world’s major routes gaining between 10 Tbps and 12 Tbps.

Globally, emerging markets remain crucial for global telecom service provider growth. IDC predicts that emerging markets will contribute for 53 percent of 2012’s global information and communications technology growth.

Mobile will drive growth in the Asia-Pacific region, as elsewhere. But developing nations also will become the focus of broadband growth over the next decade or two, building on a substantial amount of growth since about 2005.

Mobile Commerce: eBay Leads

Some 14.3 percent of an Arbitron panel use the eBay mobile app. making eBay the top app for mobile shopper. 

The eBay mobile app was used, on average, for about 34.6 sessions, for an average of one hour and 48 minutes, during the February 2013 period, according to Arbitron, 

Mobile App	User %	Minutes/Month	Sessions/Month
eBay	14.3	108.4	34.6
Amazon Mobile	13.0	40.0	10.9
Groupon	11.1	22.2	9.1
Passbook	8.1	2.0	2.6
Craigslist Mobile	6.6	80.4	17.3

eBay is Top Mobile Commerce App

Some 14.3 percent of an Arbitron panel use the eBay mobile app. making eBay the top app for mobile shopper. 

The eBay mobile app was used, on average, for about 34.6 sessions, for an average of one hour and 48 minutes, during the February 2013 period, according to Arbitron, 

Mobile App	User %	Minutes/Month	Sessions/Month
eBay	14.3	108.4	34.6
Amazon Mobile	13.0	40.0	10.9
Groupon	11.1	22.2	9.1
Passbook	8.1	2.0	2.6
Craigslist Mobile	6.6	80.4	17.3

Will Softbank Respond to Dish Network Offer for Sprint?

At least so far, there has been no counter offer from Softbank for Sprint. That is not unexpected, given the surprise offer made by Dish Network , which apparently was learned of by Softbank directors only shortly before they began a scheduled board meeting. 

What remains now for Sprint directors is a tough assessment of the merits of each offer. Setting aside for the moment which offer is worth more, since that could change, which direction would give Sprint a greater chance to dramatically improve its fortunes in the U.S. market?

As most immediately would note, Dish Network has spectrum assets to contribute, and arguably is in a better position to reduce operating costs by eliminating "redundancies" and overlap in the Sprint and Dish Network operations. 

Dish argues such savings might result in more than a billion dollars. But Softbank would bring more scale in the mobile segment of the business. 

But either firm stands to gain something tactically, even if a strategic defeat occurs. Others would note that Softbank will be paid a $600 million breakup fee if its bid to buy Sprint were rejected. And Ergen has in the past managed to wring value out of other "bets."

Until recently, many observers were convinced Dish Network actually intended all along simply to acquire and then sell its spectrum holdings, and really had no intention of getting into the mobile business. 

One Other Way the U.S. Higher Education System is Failing its Students

About 48 percent of employed U.S. college graduates are in jobs that the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) suggests requires less than a four-year college education, Center for College Affordaility and Productivity.

Some 11 percent of employed college graduates are in occupations requiring more than a high-school diploma but less than a bachelor’s, and 37 percent are in occupations requiring no more than a high-school diploma, a Center study finds. 

The proportion of overeducated workers in occupations appears to have grown substantially. In 1970, fewer than one percent of taxi drivers and two percent of firefighters had college degrees, while now more than 15 percent do in both jobs.

About five million college graduates are in jobs the BLS says require less than a high-school education.

The point is that most students go to school to get jobs, but the credentialing process is a massive waste of time and money for many. Apprenticeships would make more sense, for example. 

Mobile TV Not a Great Substitute for Linear TV Delivery, Study Finds

An analysis by researchers at the KTH Royal Institute of Technology suggests that it is not generally spectrum efficient to substitute use of mobile networks for delivery of linear video entertainment, assuming the goal is to replicate the same coverage and types of content now delivered by the local TV broadcasting network.

That will not come as a surprise to anybody who ever has pondered the network bandwidth implications of unicast and multicast video programming. 

On the other hand, the efficiencies could tip to mobile networks when the programming mix skews to specialized programming, localized content and on-demand viewing. 

By definition, unicast delivery is better suited to communications rather than traditional content delivery networks.