Will Amazon Web Services Be Worth $76 Billion in 2015?

If this revenue forecast is close to accurate, then Amazon Web Services, at a multiple of about eight times revenue, would be worth about $72 billion. Seriously. 

Mobile-Accessed Sites More Important in Some Industries Than Others

Mobile sites arguably are more important in some verticals than others. Travel comes to mind. But restaurants and bars might be among the industries most amenable to value created by mobile apps and websites.

After analyzing  traffic statistics of 14,000 websites over four years, Let's Eat, a builder of mobile app sites for the restaurant industry, notes that about half of all visits to restaurant websites consist of mobile traffic.

During the week, about a third of visits to restaurant-related sites come from mobile devices. On weekends, the percentage shoots up to nearly half of all visits. You can probably guess why that pattern exists.

During the week, when many people are at desks, it arguably is easy enough to check for a place to go eat from a PC. On weekends, when people are more likely to be out and about, using a mobile will often make more sense.

Mobile traffic has increased at a fairly regular rate over the last four years, from just three percent of traffic in October 2009 to 43 percent of restaurant site traffic in October 2013.

You also might not be surprised that population density affects use of mobile devices to get restaurant information. In urban areas associated with higher population density, people are more likely to be out and about during hours when restaurants are open, and needed.

Also, in smaller communities, it is more likely that people generally know where to find a particular restaurant or type of food.

Stockholm, London, Singapore are Global "Most Connected Cities"

The 2013 edition of Ericsson's Networked City Index ranks Stockholm, London and Singapore as top three cities among 31 measured. Few will be surprised.

Nor will many disagree with the “key finding” that information and communications technology is linked to societal, economic and environmental development. That's key language: "linked."

We sometimes like to overreach and argue that communications and information technologies "cause" economic and social development. All we really can say is that development and technology tend to be correlated.

People like lists. So the new latest Ericsson “Networked Society City Index will get attention, as will any list of sports team rankings. For some us research geeks, the methodology is more important than the list, though. 

The reason, as Ericsson says, is that “the most meaningful indicators are not always possible to measure or collect.” Some of us would add the correlation most of us assume exists between development and broadband is not "causation." It is correlation.

That said, few will quibble with the general results, which combines a number of key social, economic and environmental measures with affordability, usage and infrastructure metrics.

To be sure, everybody assumes there is a correlation between availability and use of communications and computing infrastructure, and economic and social development, in any city, or elsewhere.

The problem is that the clear correlations are not necessarily causation. Nobody really can say with absolute certainty that cities “cause” economic growth, or that growth causes cities to form.

The same “correlation without causation” can be said to exist for economic activity and broadband access, for example. We assume that good communications infrastructure contributes to economic growth. It is a reasonable assumption, if hard to prove.

Some might go further and say such infrastructure causes growth. That is where we step into a realm of belief, not science, as rational as we might try to be.

Most would agree there is correlation between high quality broadband access and economic and societal health and activity. That is why most will tend to agree with the rankings, at a high level.

That is simply to say the city index is like most human efforts at “doing science.” We can in many cases describe how something works, but we cannot always answer “why” something works (“What is the purpose?”)

We can describe inputs and outputs, and often the obvious immediate causal processes but we cannot assess “causation” in a metaphysical and universal way (“why does the universe exist?”).

At Some Point, Legacy Networks are Too Expensive to Operate

According to the Federal Communications Commission, the number of landline customers in Michigan dropped from 6.7 million in 2000 to 2.6 million in 2012. Meanwhile, the number of wireless customers jumped from 3.5 million in 2000 to 9.3 million in 2012.

In other words, there were in 2012 only 39 percent of fixed lines in service; the rest were fallow. By definition, that means the remaining customers have to cover the fixed costs of the whole network.

No doubt, there are reasons some customers prefer to keep their legacy "plain old telephone service" lines. At some point, it will not be financially possible to keep the old network operating, whatever the public service value of doing so.

That doesn't mean fixed networks will not provide voice; they will. But it will be IP-based voice, not TDM. Like it or not, we are approaching a time when the legacy network has to be shut down, as it will not be possible to pay for its operation.

TV White Spaces Business Model an Issue for CIO Group

For nearly all speakers at the Dynamic Spectrum Alliance Global Summit in Bangkok--but not all--there was not any doubt that TV white spaces and other new spectrum sources “should” be released for commercial use to support rural broadband access, ISP backhaul, machine to machine services, mobile operator or fixed operator small cell services, campus networks or additional local Wi-Fi distribution.

George Kintanar, chairman of the Philippines-based Chief Information Officers Forum, a group representing government technology chiefs, was a notable agnostic (naysayer, doubter or skeptic are too strong to describe his position).

It isn’t that Kintanar is opposed to release of more spectrum, especially TV white spaces, for commercial deployment. In fact, the CIO Forum is looking at the issue now.

And, as you might guess, he has the perspective of an end user when evaluating TV white spaces technology.

As an “enterprise user,” he wants a sustainable technology that will attract new service providers who will be around for the long term.

In other words, the last thing he wants to back is a technology that fails to become sustainable, since non-sustainable communications solutions, by definition, are too risky for enterprise buyers.

So the issue for potential enterprise and government buyers is whether enabling use of TV white spaces spectrum will be good for buyers of communication services, over time, or is exposed to the risk of failure. WiMAX might provide one example.

The risk could take any number of forms, including the danger that investors will not see a path to investment returns, meaning networks taking advantage of TV white spaces will not be built, or if built, will not remain in operation.

A related problem are sustainable business models offering the prospect of permanence, stability and further development over time.

The fact that some brand TV white spaces as “super Wi-Fi” suggests the concern. To the extent that TV white spaces winds up as a sort of “commons” approach to spectrum use, as Wi-Fi represents, Kintanar likely voices the concerns of many enterprise and governmental users of communication services.

If access to the spectrum is “without cost,” what is the incentive for new suppliers to create access services (new ways for enterprise and government buyers to source connections to the Internet and communication services, as opposed to “mere” local distribution within a building from an existing network access service?

In other words, Kintanar wants to see evidence of sustainable value for both buyers and providers, as that is the only way TV white spaces will thrive, long term.

But Kintanar’s concerns are so pronounced for one specific reason. “We want new entrants,” Kintanar says.

In part, that means new providers, presumably ISPs of some sort, will have to create value and satisfactory revenue models, while competing with the incumbent ISPs.

At least some other attendees thought that would be a key long term challenge. “The rule of three” suggests, in the end, only a few providers will be able to survive, or represent 80 percent or more of the revenue generated by providing those new services, one attendee suggested.

That seems to lie at the heart of Kintanar’s concern, as well. “Is there a business model?” he asked. For some, it is self evident a business model will be found. Kintanar, at least for the moment, wants more proof.

Apple Average Selling Price More than Double the Average of Android Prices

Apple always has occupied the "premium device, premium price" segment of most markets it has tackled. 

The smart phone market is not different, as the latest IDC data shows Apple smart phones selling for average prices more than double that of Android. 

Smartphone average selling prices declined 12.5 percent in the third quarter of 2013, accounting for an average price of $317, largely driven by demand for lower-cost smart phones globally.

At the same time, the market has seen a large influx of large-screen smartphones sporting five-inch to seven-inch screens, which tends to boost average selling prices. 

Phablet ASPs in the third quarter of 2013 were notably higher than the market average of smart phones at $443. 

Still, phablet average selling prices declined 22.8 percent in the third quarter of 2013, comparted to the $573 phablet seen in the third quarter of 2012.

FCC and CTIA Largely In Agreement About Device Unlocking

Among the first actions new Federal Communications Commission Chairman Tom Wheeter is taking is to reemphasize the Commission’s desire for clear service provider policies and practices related to device unlocking, at least once a subscriber has ended a service agrreement.

Wheeler, in a letter to the CTIA, reiterated the Commission’s position on how device unlocking should work.

Policies should be clear, concise, and readily accessible to consumers, Wheeler said. Devices should be  unlocked when a service contract or installment plan has reached its end.

Service providers also must notify customers when their devicesare eligible for unlocking, or automatically unlock devices when eligible, without an additional fee.

Service providers also should  process unlocking requests or provide an explanation of denial within two business days.

Service providers also must unlock devices for military personnel upon deployment.

CTIA and the FCC seem to be in agreement on all but the item regarding consumer notification.

Wheeler notified the CTIA of his view that without the consumer being notified about unlocking eligibility, “any voluntary program would be a hollow shell.”