Survey Finds 39% of Respondents Have Never Bought Linear Video

You might not be too surprised if a survey finds 19 percent of respondents to a survey on video entertainment usage say they cut linear video service within the last year. You might be more surprised to learn that nearly 39 percent have never purchased a linear video service.

That suggests the long term problem linear video providers face: there is dwindling demand for the current product, as well as the near term problem, namely churn and abandonment.

The survey of 3150 consumers on behalf of Digitalsmiths in the United States and Canada, sponsored by Digitalsmiths, also found churn behavior increasing. In the third quarter of 2015, eight percent of respondents said they had switched service providers in the last three months, about a 2.7 percent monthly rate, and higher than most major triple play providers have been reporting.

Asked what they might do over the next six months, 46.5 percent of respondents said they would either cut linear service altogether (4.8 percent), change to another linear provider (7.2 percent), switch to an online app or rental service (2.7 percent). Some 32 percent said they “might” change services.

The survey found 82.5 percent of respondents watch between one and 10 channels, an increase of 2.1 percent year over year and 2.3 percent over two years. That is generally consistent with historical findings, but shows a slight increase over time as more channels have been added to channel lineups.

Respondents who watch 11 or more channels decreased 2.1 percent year over year and decreased 2.3 percent over two years.

Fully 56.3 percent of respondents have over-the-top subscription services, an increase of 3.6 percent, year over year, and 8.1 percent over two years.

Of those respondents who are cord-cutters or cord-nevers, 74.5 percent buy  a monthly subscription service, compared to 55.1 percent of linear TV subscribers. Netflix and Hulu are the top OTT services used by respondents who do not subscribe to linear TV.

Some 36.1 percent of respondents use pay-per-rental services such as Redbox Kiosks, iTunes, Amazon Prime Instant Video or similar services.

While there was a slight 2.2 percent decrease in usage quarter over quarter, these services did experience increases of 7.1 percent year over year.

Some 41 percent of respondents spend between $3 and $11 a month on pay-per-rental services.

However, across the board overall spend on these services decreased 2.5 percent quarter over quarter and , 5.3 percent year over year.

Perhaps nobody is much surprised by any of those trends, though some might disagree with the magnitude of the reported behavior.

source: Digitalsmiths

Supporters Hope Carrier Wi-Fi Will Create New Business Models

In the near term, hotspot network business models will be driven by existing business models--faster access, advertising, location and venue services, according to Maravedis. For the most part, business models rely on indirect value--such as churn reduction or data offload--rather than direct subscription revenue or advertising, for example.

The search for new business models, at the moment, centers on the ability to create seamless carrier quality connections, to support voice subscription revenue or enterprise services.

The installed base of carrier-grade hotspots will rise at a compound annual rate of growth between four percent and 14 percent,  depending on the region.

Asia-Pacific will still account for 66 percent of the total world base in 2020, despite the expansion in other regions.

On average, each country  has over 200,000 hotspots (excluding homespots) deployed under its direct control and one million available to its subscribers by roaming or wholesale deals. The figurs are skewed by a few larger telcos.

source: Maravedis

Vodafone Expands Gigabit Networks in Ireland, Portugal

Vodafone Group has begun deploying gigabit Internet access services in Ireland as part of its initiative to connect small towns (4,000 homes or more) to fiber-to-home networks by the end of 2018.

Carrigaline in Country Cork is the first of 51 Irish towns to receive access.

Ireland is the first country in Europe to use electricity infrastructure to deploy end-to-end fiber directly to the premises on a nationwide basis.

Vodafone Group also announced a €125 million expansion of its FTTH network in Portugal, offering speeds of up to 1 gigabit per second to 2.75 million homes and businesses across the country by the end of 2016.

To date, Vodafone has connected 2.2 million Portuguese homes and businesses to FTTH networks,

Vodafone is also building a new gigabit FTTH network in Spain serving more than two million homes and businesses, and is in discussions with Italian electricity company Enel which has announced plans to create a new infrastructure company to build a national FTTH network open to all operators across Italy.

What Must be Done Next to Stimulate Faster Internet Adoption Across South Asia?

Spectrum Futures has posted a new white paper: Increasing Internet Access Availability Across South Asia: What to Do Next. 

In many cases, the answers start with an understanding of where and how Internet access will be used. 

By 2020, for example, 54 percent of South Asia mobile customers will be using smartphones, according to GSMA estimates.  Those choices by consumers necessarily drive demand for more bandwidth.

Between 2015 and 2021, data consumption per smartphone will grow nine times in Western Europe, five times in Central and Eastern Europe, nearly six times in the Middle East and Africa, nearly seven times in Asia Pacific, nearly six times in North American and five times in South America.

In much of Asia, as in some other regions, the smartphone is the gateway to use of the Internet. In India, for example, about 57 percent of the time, the smartphone is the access device of choice, according to the Google Consumer Barometer.

In the Philippines, about 39 percent of the time, the smartphone is the preferred or more-used access device.

Smartphone adoption therefore will be a key driver of bandwidth demand, since mobile Internet consumption on smartphones is growing at a compound annual growth rate of 50 percent.

It also goes without saying that attractive applications and services are the reasons people want to use smartphones and the Internet, which is why many believe programs such as "Free Basics" make sense. 

Many who do not yet use the Internet across South Asia say they do not have a need, or do not know why they would want to use the Internet. So allowing people to sample the Internet is a proven way to boost demand by allowing people to discover the value of Internet apps.

And though it will not be the only platform for Internet access, there can be no denying mobile's huge role. 

There will be 2.51 billion mobile phone users in the Asia-Pacific region in 2015, a figure equal to 62.5 percent of the population, rising to 69.4 percent by 2019, according to eMarketer.

Also, Asia will account for 39 percent of global data consumption by 2019, as a result, according to Cisco. And India will represent a huge part of the growth.

India is on track to surpass half a billion mobile subscribers by the end of the year, according to a new GSMA Intelligence study. By 2020, India will account for almost half of all the subscriber growth expected in the Asia Pacific region.

The Mobile Economy: India 2015 notes that 13 percent of the world’s mobile subscribers reside in India. At the  end of 2014, India’s mobile subscriber penetration rate was about 36 percent of the population, compared to a 50 percent global average.

But that is going to change, fast.

The subscriber penetration rate in India is forecast to reach 54 per cent by 2020 as many millions more are connected by mobile.

India had 453 million unique mobile subscribers at the end of 2014, but is forecast to surpass 500 million by the end of 2015 and add a further 250 million subscribers by 2020 to reach 734 million.  

ISDN Used to be the "Next Generation Network"

Some of us can remember when ISDN was the "next generation network." Then we shifted to broadband ISDN (Asynchronous Transfer Mode). Then the Internet hit. Now the next generation network is built on Internet Protocol. 

That wasn't the way network architects in the telecom world expected matters to unfold. 

Calling Service Ringo Gets Blocked in India

Calling service Ringo, which has been offering international calling and recently launched domestic calling service in India, says domestic calling on the service has been blocked, apparently by its own wholesale service provider. Ringo says it is “a fully legal, compliant service, and follows all aspects of the DoT and TRAI regulations.”

Ringo uses wholesale minutes purchased from an underlying carrier, and is not an over the top service, so the reason for the blocking of domestic calling on Nov. 30, 2015,  is unclear.

“Until we manage to get an intervention from relevant regulatory authorities to unblock our service, none of our domestic calls are going through,” Ringo said.

The blocking is curious. Ringo buys minutes in bulk from carriers, offering local calls for as low as 19 paise/min (less than a cent). To put that in comparison, Airtel charges around ₹1.40 (20 cents) per minute, and if you're on a reduced tariff plan, that comes down to 40paise per minute (six cents).

That existing mobile service providers would not be happy about the additional competition is  understandable. Why an apparently lawful service is being blocked, however, is not clear.

The Ringo app allows users to call any landline or mobile in the country at a flat rate of 19paise per minute (less than half a cent), without any additional charges.

Unlike other VOIP apps, Ringo uses carrier networks instead of phone data or the Internet for a phone calls.

Using Big Data to Slice Cost of Assessing Creditworthiness for Microloans

By some estimates,  4.5 billion people do not have any kind of formal credit score that could help them qualify for loans, but up to 90 percent of the world’s population does have access to mobile phones.

As it turns out, mobile phone behavior can establish a  “financial identity” that provides many of the advantages of a credit score, when entities want to make loans, typically microloans. By reducing risk of non-payment, such measures could enable loans made with smaller lending fees.

That, obviously, would help borrowers as well as lenders. Firms such as Branch (a nod to its mission of serving as a branchless bank) use phone data to assess borrower likelihood to repay on loans of $25 or less in Kenya, and mobile phones as the means to send money and receive repayments.

The app, available on Google Play, can make a loan determination and deliver a result to the mobile phone in five minutes.

Branch collects data from the potential borrower’s phone, including information about the device, text message logs, call logs, and contact lists. Branch then uses the  information to assess creditworthiness.

In some cases, the value comes from use of the phone to record spending and saving data entered manually.

In other cases, non-financial behavior can be used to create a proxy for a credit score. Kreditech says it can use 20,000 measures based on phone behavior to make an assessment. Traditional banks might use 300 measures.

In addition to new commercial microlending apps and efforts, the original impetus might have been non-profit microlending by outfits such as Kiva, which works with dozens of commercial partners.

The use of algorithms to assess risk obviously will help to cut the costs of screening, which in turn arguably contributes to the high interest rates microloans tend to feature.

source: Wall Street Journal