Quality, Not Just Quantity, is Required for Sustainable Consumer Internet Access

One can argue that ever-increasing capacity expansion, combined with relatively inelastic willingness to pay, pose either a challenge or a crisis for the internet access industry, at least at the tier-one level. Conversely, openings in the market for local, small specialists should increase.

Consultant Martin Geddes always talks about the need to emphasize quality, not just quantity, where it comes to internet access.

“The broadband industry is presently caught in an insane ‘fat pipes’ model that simultaneously fails to deliver predictable and consistent experiences, whilst also wasting huge amounts of capital and thus inflating costs,” he says. “In this model, the central belief is that the job of a network is to create as much data throughput as possible, which is (wrongly) conflated with enabling good user experiences.”

In effect, “quality of experience” issues underlie thinking about network neutrality (outlawing direct measures to improve quality in favor of measures to increase quantity). At the same time, measures that make “experience” possible within a sustainable business model (zero rating, for example) likewise are viewed strictly through a “restraint of trade” lens, ignoring the alternative issues of “experience that also is sustainable.”

In virtually all other product categories and industries, products can be developed and marketed within a framework that includes both price and quality. Consumer internet access often outlaws any dimension but quantity.

Those issues will begin to cause increased friction as the driver of internet access and bandwidth clearly shifts to video entertainment apps.

Municipal and State Networks for Internet Access Getting More Attention

One trend you always can count on when any former-monopoly market is opened to competition is that many new niches develop. In the telecom business, that meant the development of firms selling mostly to smaller businesses or enterprises; metro fiber wholesalers; data center operators and affinity mobile services companies. Some firms sell managed services; others Wi-Fi hotspot service.

But regional optical fiber networks also have developed, and some emerging networks are operated as public-private partnerships or municipal cooperatives. In a growing number of cases, towns themselves are opting to sell internet access directly to citizens.  

The KentuckyWired project (also known as Kentucky I-Way in eastern Kentucky) is building a network backbone costing $350 million over the next 30 years and plans to lease capacity to retail service providers.

The Massachusetts WiredWest program is a cooperative formed by 32 towns to build a wide area network and local fiber-to-home networks delivering local internet access in each of the towns.

Communities must get at least 40 percent of households in their area to commit to purchasing internet access service, making a $49 deposit that is reimbursed as a credit against the first bill.

The cost to build the network in the 32 towns is an estimated $79 million. The state is contributing up to 40 percent of the funds, but the towns must provide the rest.  A 55 percent vote in a town meeting is needed to approve borrowing the funds each town must contribute.

Retail internet access of 100 Mbps costs $79 a month. Gigabit service costs $109 a month.

WiredWest also sells phone service for $25 a month and also plans to sell entertainment video services.

Facebook Millimeter Wave Radios Hit 20 Gbps Each Direction

Facebook’s Connectivity Lab now is flight testing its first generation air-to-ground bidirectional link capable of 20 Gbps in each direction, intended to support the Aquila unmanned aerial vehicle for internet backhaul.

The aerial payload is mounted on a Cessna aircraft and is being flown at altitudes up to 20,000 ft., Facebook says.

The next generation air-to-ground communication system capable of supporting 40 Gbps each on uplink and downlink between an aircraft and a ground station will be flight-tested in early 2017.

source: Facebook

Earlier in 2016 Facebook tested a terrestrial point-to-point link in Southern California.

In that test the link achieved a data rate of nearly 20 Gbps over 13 km at millimeter frequencies.

Using a set of custom-built components, the team achieved that data rate using 105 watts of total direct current (DC) power consumption at the transmitter and receiver.

The transmission used a bandwidth of 2 GHz, resulting in an overall spectral efficiency of 9.8 bits per second per Hertz.

AT&T to Introduce Stream Saver Feature in 2017

Almost every decision made by service providers about consumer data consumption turns on video entertainment demand, as that is the application that drives most data consumption, by most consumers.

Starting in early 2017, AT&T will introduce AT&T Stream Saver, a free feature, user controllable, that reduces mobile data plan consumption by converting video content to 480p resolution. That feature will work for most, but not all video, as some providers deliver video in ways that can be converted, AT&T says.

Decried by some as unwanted “throttling,” the “Binge On” feature that likewise reformats mobile video to 480p is loved by consumers, T-Mobile US says. In fact, Binge On got a 99-percent approval rating by consumers, in a study by Strategy Analytics.

Telecom is a Tale of 2 Markets Now; Ultimately Just 1 Market

Revenue growth in the global telecom business is a story of two different types of markets. On one hand, service providers are challenged in developed markets, while subscriber and revenue growth mostly happens in “emerging” markets.

Sooner or later, many predict, the end of growth will be a problem for all service providers, in all regions, for the same reasons. Two of the huge revenue drivers--voice and messaging--are in decline, even in emerging markets (in terms of revenue per unit). One of the new revenue drivers--entertainment video--has passed maturity and is set to begin declining. One of the important newer revenue sources--internet access--does not yet face actual revenue decline, but does face rapidly-falling prices per unit sold.

All that means that in addition to hunting for, discovering and creating big new revenue sources, something big will have to happen in infrastructure and operating cost areas. If revenue is challenged, then costs also have to be controlled.

That is why innovation of all sorts is necessary. Virtualized or software-defined networks are part of the answer. Open source is part of the answer. New backhaul and access networks also must be part of the answer.

source: Oracle

Fixed Wireless is Necessary, Getting Much Better

No matter what limitations you presently believe fixed wireless networks suffer from, progress now is proceeding at stunning rates. An order of magnitude increase in spectrum efficiency is one example. An order of magnitude decrease in installation labor provides another example.

To be sure, predictions about wireless access adoption have been wrong in the past. But the promise of high capacity networks costing a fraction of traditional fixed networks especially is important.

Though there is disagreement about fundamental prospects for fixed and mobile network businesses (some still believe the big tier-one providers are dangerous monopolists), there is growing evidence that the ability to wring revenue out of even advanced fixed or mobile networks is challenging.

Stranded assets are one problem. As the number of leading providers in a single market grows, stranded assets also grow. Where, in a monopoly environment a service provider might reasonably hope to reach 80 to 95 percent penetration, in a competitive market, customer adoption rates might only reach 40 percent.

In the next wave of development, it even is possible that mobile networks (operating in both mobile and fixed contexts) will actually begin to take share from all fixed network providers.

Also, all the legacy revenue services are declining, forcing suppliers to create or develop big new revenue sources to replace those lost revenues. That never is easy. Indeed, most observers will tend to agree that big telcos have been fairly poor to awful at such innovation.

It would help if service providers could avail themselves of vastly more efficient network technologies.

source: Tarana Wireless

source: gigaom

source: STL Partners

Autonomous Vehicles and Job Loss

Productivity--the ability to produce more with fewer resource inputs--is important because it is directly linked to a rise in living standards. While that might be true at the macro level (whole economies or countries), it is not automatically true at the micro level (particular workers in particular industries and regions).

So consider the impact of autonomous vehicles, perhaps just one example of a worrisome trend, namely technology-caused job destruction.  

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics estimates that 758,220 people are employed in general freight trucking, with another 493,870 in warehousing and storage, 457,010 as couriers and express delivery drivers, and 337,530 as specialized freight trucking.

Morgan Stanley estimates that the freight industry stands to save $168 billion annually as a result of autonomous vehicle technology, and that $70 billion of that will come from a reduced wage bill.

There are an additional 173,770 school and employee bus drivers, and 180,960 taxi drivers and chauffeurs.

In total, the Transportation and Material Moving Operations section of the US economy accounts for 9.54 million people, with a mean annual wage of $35,160 – accounting for an estimated wage bill of $335.3 billion.

Autonomous vehicle systems could indicate a 50 percent reduction in that wage bill. As always, a “cost” to one participant in an ecosystem is “revenue” to another.