Will 2017 be the Year the Fixed Network Business Model Crashes?

Will 2017 be the year the global fixed network telecom business goes negative, or upside down, on a cash basis?

Yes, say researchers at the Economist Intelligence Unit. Their 2017 telecom forecast predicts that, by the end of 2017, the global fixed networks business will go negative. In other words, annual revenues will be less than investment required to operate the business.

That necessarily will start--or accelerate--a huge process of rethinking the role, scale and scope of fixed networks. Over the long term, fixed networks cannot be operated at a permanent loss, much less justify continual investment in higher speeds and capabilities, as revenue drops.

That calls into question not only the future role of a fixed network, its role and customers, but also the platform, marketing and operating costs required to sustain the business.

In simple terms, revenue no longer will cover fixed or variable costs in the business. That is a big big deal.

source: The Economist

Telecom Infra Project Adds Operations Focus

Bell Canada, du (EITC), NBN, Orange, Telia, Telstra, Accenture, Amdocs, Canonical, Hewlett Packard Enterprise, and Toyota InfoTechnology Center have joined the open-source Telecom Infra Project that aims to create global, open source network platforms from access to core networks.

TIP also now is expanding its work on operating processes. The “People and Process” project will collect and codify best practices that can improve operating metrics. The group will be co-chaired by Bell Canada and Facebook. Members of this new group include: Accenture, Agilitrix, Bell Canada, Deloitte, Hewlett Packard Enterprise, NBN, SK Telecom, Tata Communications, Telefonica, and Telstra.

Reliance Jio--After 3 Months--Already is Largest Mobile Data Supplier in India

Have you ever seen market structure in any telecom market transformed in three months? That appears to have happened in India, where Reliance Jio Infocomm, the latest and biggest new entrant in India’s mobile business, has acquired more than 50 million new mobile data subscribers since commercial services were launched early in September 2016.

For those of you keeping count, that is about 1,000 new customers a minute over a three-month period.

Looking only at mobile data accounts--not total accounts--Reliance Jio already has become India‘s top carrier by mobile broadband user base, surpassing Bharti Airtel. That rapid rate of account growth already has altered the Indian mobile market structure, as Reliance Jio now is the biggest provider in the market.

Top Five Wireless Broadband Service providers, January 2016:

1.   Bharti Airtel (31.02 million)

2.   Vodafone (26.23 million)

3.   Idea Cellular (22.04 million)

4.   Reliance Communications (15.37 million)

5.   BSNL (10.26 million)

Top Five Wired Broadband Service providers, January 2016:

1.   BSNL (9.9 million)

2.   Bharti Airtel (1.68 million)

3.   MTNL (1.12 million)

4.   Atria Convergence Technologies (0.89 million)

5.   YOU Broadband (0.51 million)

Former market leader Bharti Airtel had 41 million mobile broadband accounts in service at the end of September 2016. Reliance Jio still has some ways to go to reach the top ranks of the mobile market, measured in total accounts. But it soon will pass Telenor, the eighth-largest provider.

Rank	Operator	Subscribers (Feb 2016)
1	Bharti Airtel	248,690,245
2	Vodafone	196,746,283
3	Idea Cellular	174,627,491
4	Reliance Communication	101,905,475
5	Aircel	86,677,778
6	BSNL	84,826,568
7	Tata	60,278,625
8	Telewings / Telenor	51,677,533

source: TRAI

Ofcom Decides Against Openreach Structural Separation

If Openreach becomes a wholly-owned affiliate of BT, but with its own board of directors, will that increase competition in the U.K. internet access business?

Ofcom, the U.K. communications regulator, apparently believes that is the preferable alternative to complete structural separation of Openreach. All other policy concerns aside, Ofcom arguably wants to avoid years of legal wrangling and substantial costs that would be triggered by what would be a divesting of BT instructure from its retail role.

Many will disagree. For many observers and industry participants, the structural separation of Openreach from BT has been deemed necessary. Ofcom, the U.K. communications regulator, has been looking at the broader question of broadband policy, as well as the specific question of the structure of Openreach and its ownership by BT.

Rivals of BT were chief among those believing structural separation was necessary to protect and promote healthy competition in the internet access market. Virgin Media was rare among BT competitors who advocated. That, some might conclude, was an additional reason to allowing Openreach ownership by BT.

The reason? As the primary facilities-based provider of fixed network internet access services, Virgin Media can be presumed to be a good judge of how policy changes affect its business. If Virgin Media opposes structural separation, it has to be deemed a reflection of Virgin Media’s own belief that Openreach would be a more-formidable platform when structurally separated.

Now it appears Ofcom has concluded that structural separation is not required. Instead, Ofcom is said to be moving to what it calls “legal separation,” recasting Openreach as an owned subsidiary of BT.

“Our current view is still that an effective and robust form of legal separation, with Openreach as a wholly owned subsidiary of BT, is likely to achieve the greatest improvements for everyone in the shortest amount of time,” Ofcom said.

In Singapore, Australia and New Zealand, full structural separation between a wholesale infrastructure services supplier and the former owner was chosen.

AT&T Announces Pricing for New Streaming Services

In addition to DirecTV Now, AT&T’s new streaming video service, AT&T also has announced price points for two other services, FreeVIEW and Fullscreen, both of which can be used with no data plan usage for AT&T mobile service customers.

Fullscreen offers more than 1,500 hours of ad-free premium scripted and unscripted original series, TV shows and films licensed from studio partners.

Fullscreen can be used at no charge for one year, for all AT&T mobile plans including a messaging service, and without incurring data usage charges. Regular pricing after the introductory year is $5.99 a month.

Fullscreen can be used anytime, anywhere in the United States, at www.fullscreen.com, on iPhone, iPad, select Android Phones, Chromecast and Apple TV devices.

FreeVIEW also provides unique and exclusive content free of charge, including a sampling of on-demand content from AUDIENCE Network, Otter Media properties and other channels on DirecTV Now, using either the DirecTV Now app or at the web site, www.directvnow.com. Streaming of FreeVIEW does not incur data charges.

AT&T also announced pricing for DirecTV Now, including

• Live a Little – $35 / month (60+ channels)
• Just Right – $50 / month (80+ channels)
• Go Big – $60 / month (100+ channels)
• Gotta Have it – $70 / month (120+ channels)

Fans of HBO and Cinemax can add these channels for just $5 each per month in addition to your base programming package.

DirecTV Now will be available at launch through the following:

• Amazon Fire TV and Fire TV Stick
• Android mobile devices and tablets
• iPhone, iPad and Apple TV
• Chromecast (Android at launch; iOS in 2017)
• Google Cast-enabled LeEco ecotvs and VIZIO SmartCast Displays
• Internet Explorer, Chrome and Safari web browsers.

Support for Roku streaming players and Roku TV models, Amazon Fire tablets, and Smart TVs from Samsung and other leading brands will be added in 2017.

AT&T continues to argue that the primary audience for these services are about 20 million households that use the internet but do not buy linear TV services. That includes people who used to subscribe as well as those who never have subscribed to a linear TV service.

But that also means AT&T now competes with other services such as Sling and PlayStation Vue, for example. Some might argue the new services also will compete with Netflix, Amazon Prime and Hulu, to some extent.

The other issue is how much impact, if any, might eventually be felt by the linear video business, affecting both AT&T’s own DirecTV service and those offered by others such as Comcast and Charter Communications, even if the immediate expected customer base is “non-buyers of linear video service.”

Demand for Fixed Network Voice Lines is Lower than Many Think

Consumer demand for fixed network voice connections arguably is substantially lower than one might conclude from units sold to households. In some markets, purchase of a voice line is required if a customer wants internet access (United Kingdom buyers of retail landline service from BT or any BT wholesale customers, for example).

In other markets, such as the United States, voice typically is sold in a bundle that offers substantial discounts for buying three bundled services, making purchase of a voice line a feature of service often primarily purchased for internet access and video entertainment.

Also, global development experts believe mobile and internet are, in any event, the key services to monitor, not fixed line voice.

The key observation is that many consumers must buy a fixed network voice service in order to buy internet. The question is how demand would be affected if that requirement were not in place.

One survey found that between 25 percent and 40 percent of U.K. consumers “do not know their own phone number.” Also, more than 50 percent of U.K. survey respondents report they ‘rarely’ or ‘never’ use their landline phone to make personal calls, Relish, a wireless internet access provider, says.  

Perhaps 36 percent of respondents only use their landline voice line once a month or less, Relish has found.

If only half of those respondents--if given a chance--would abandon voice lines, then take rates for landline voice might drop between 12.5 percent and 25 percent. But it might also be the case that up to half of present buyers seen very little utility in their landline voice connections, suggesting that as much as half of all present demand is artificially inflated.

There are analogous trends even in the mobile business. Many leading U.S. mobile plans, for example, offer unlimited domestic calling and text messaging for a lowish flat fee, with revenue driven primarily by purchases of mobile data. One might infer from those practices that the “value” of a mobile voice or messaging capability is relatively low, compared to access to mobile data.

That is not to say the voice and messaging features are unimportant; only that they are commodity features. Few consumers likely would buy a mobile service that did not include voice and messaging capabilities, but equally few are likely to prize those capabilities. The analogy is an automobile without tires. Tires are necessary, but few consumers think about them when buying a car.

Linear Dollars for On-Demand Pennies?

One enduring observation made by content business executives about the gross revenue or profit margin impact of digital content is that companies exchange analog dollars for digital pennies. That might also be true of the switch from linear to on-demand video entertainment.

Gross revenue for AT&T’s new DirecTV Now streaming service, for example, might generate an average of $118 a month. DirecTV Now will generate just $35 a month in subscription fees. So DirecTV Now represents gross revenue per account just 25 percent the size of a linear subscription, on average.

Profit margins suffer even more. Gross margin for the linear product might be as high as 45 percent, while gross margin for DirecTV Now might be as low as four percent, some predict.

Others think the profit margin will be even slimmer, as the “cost of goods”represents as much as 97 percent of revenue. Craig Moffett, MoffettNathanson equity analyst, estimates the  the cost of the channels expected to be included in DirecTV Now is likely around $34, which would leave just $1 a month before other expenses including overhead and marketing.

A reasonable observer might wonder why AT&T would offer such a service. There are several answers. AT&T is not alone in believing that the biggest opportunity to capture leadership in the on-demand video entertainment business is to focus on mobile video rather than the “direct to TV” model. So DirecTV Now, even if a “loss leader” at the moment, offers a chance to grab leadership of the business most expect will displace linear TV over time.

Also, subscription TV (linear or on-demand) is a clear “app,” offering a chance to escape the “commodity dumb pipe internet access” role. Simple internet access does not intrinsically drive incremental revenue for the access provider. Voice, messaging, video and other services, in contrast, boost revenue. And that will be a primary objective and necessity for all tier-one service providers, as legacy services approach “near-zero” pricing levels.

In that sense, entertainment video is among the likeliest candidates to drive significant application revenues, in addition to the internet access function. Also, content services--at least in principle--are more “sticky” than other services such as messaging and voice, allowing more chance for differentiation and loyalty.

To be sure, AT&T maintains the service will be aimed at households and customers who buy internet access, but not a subscription video service. Apparently, current DirecTV linear subscription customers will not be able to buy the DirecTV Now service. But at least some additional consumers are going to view the new offer as a viable choice.

That will be most true for consumers who might otherwise consider SlingTV or Hulu, less so for consumers of Netflix or Amazon Prime, both of which arguably compete more directly with HBO. DirecTV Now (as is SlingTV) is a better choice for consumers who want a broad selection of major network linear content.