Friday, October 11, 2019

Can Telcos Be Platforms?

Every fast-growing or large company, in any industry, might well aspire to become a platform, it seems. How widely platforms might be adopted, or “who can become a platform” seems less clear. Perhaps the clearest examples are provided by software or application companies such as Facebook.

Increasingly, many of the biggest businesses are software companies with platform business models. In a platform business, creators and suppliers add content and services to the platform, which draws users, which creates various monetization models.

It is not so clear that any connectivity provider has an easy road, in that regard. Operating as a platform means becoming the gravitational center of a broad ecosystem of consumers, suppliers and developers. 

The problem for any connectivity services provider is that, in the internet protocol ecosystem, which now virtually underpins all digital services and products, there is a logical separation between physical networks and devices and the apps or services people and businesses want to use. 

Under such conditions, by definition, ecosystems are built in the disarticulated apps sphere, and are not inherently dependent on the physical networks that supply connectivity. The best analogy I can think of is electricity. Think of all the businesses and revenue streams and products that are built on the assumption that electricity is available. 

Then ask yourself whether a direct business relationship must exist between any supplier of a product and the supplier of electricity. The answer, of course, is “no.” Electricity has to be provided, but there is no essential business relationship required by any others in the ecosystem who supply products using electricity.

And that, fundamentally, is the problem connectivity providers face when looking to become platforms. They simply have no actual advantages in the device, applications or value-creation roles that are not directly related to the core business of supplying connectivity. 

To be sure, that is not an inherent problem for some suppliers of infrastructure, including roads, electricity, waste water or drinking water or natural gas. Growth rates might be nil, but there is modest, if any competition, which means profits, if not high, are steady. 

Telecom, in contrast, is in what might be termed the worst of all possible worlds. Once a formal monopoly with low but guaranteed rates of return, it now is It a competitive  business with high capital intensity, significant regulation and changing consumer preferences. 

It is as if an electrical energy supplier discovered that its customers were, in large numbers, disconnecting from the grid and creating their own energy. Think of voice or text messaging services and you’ll get the analogy. 

That would create incentives to “find something else to sell.” And that is where the obstacles begin. To be sure, many platform suppliers created themselves from nothing. In principle, any firm can hope too become a major platform, early on. But that is key: a firm has to move “early on.”

Established platforms beat others to market. A decade headstart often is insurmountable, once 
network effects are obtained. Once a firm becomes a platform, aggregating value, the scale advantages become moats.

So is 5G a platform? Mobile operators can hope that will become true, to some extent, perhaps as Amazon Web Services might be considered a platform. Most might tend to prefer the term “enabler,” even if some platform characteristics have developed. 

Skeptics might well conclude that connectivity providers selling services directly to retail end users have little chance to become major platforms on their own. Additionally, connectivity providers might have precious little ability even to leverage a growth path others have employed, namely, working with other key app providers.

Perhaps a good example is the way Uber and Lyft leverage other existing platforms such as iOS, Android, and Google Maps. It is not so clear how a connectivity provider can create a platform role when, by definition, other potential partners can simply assume connectivity exists, with no business relationships required. 

The trick is finding use cases where a direct business relationship, though not formally required, adds value and speeds market adoption by the other partners. Among the advantages large connectivity providers always tend to cite are scale, customer relationships and brand awareness (perhaps trust, as well). 

Those assets might lend themselves to marketing and distribution roles. That is why many firms believe they can be suppliers and creators of linear and over the top video entertainment services; home security; banking or payment services. 

Detailed Voice Guidance for Google Maps



Google Maps for sight-impaired, in U.S. and Japan, for the moment. 

Thursday, October 10, 2019

What to Do with DirecTV?

I honestly have no idea what AT&T might eventually decide, regarding its DirecTV holdings, with one exception. I cannot conceive of AT&T giving away the free cash flow that asset represents. One way of looking at matters is the free cash flow from DirecTV funds 93 percent of AT&T's dividend, for example. 

For that reason, all speculation about AT&T divesting DirecTV has seemed to me a non-starter.  But one way of restructuring, such as combining DirecTV in some way with Dish’s video assets,  

Private equity firm Apollo Global Management has proposed that AT&T spin out DirecTV into a new entity that combines Dish and DirecTV assets and leaves AT&T as the controlling entity. 

At least in principle, that would leave open the ability to use cash flow to support dividend payments, debt reduction or share buybacks, while further deleveraging AT&T. 

There are regulatory and deal risks. Charlie Ergen, Dish chairman, is a notoriously difficult negotiating partner. On the other hand, Dish’s future as an independent entity does hinge on harvesting satellite video while building an entirely new revenue model. So maybe Ergen’s incentive is higher than ever. 

But, all things considered, it seems to be the barriers are high to the status quo. Yes, the linear business is shrinking, so replacement revenue sources are necessary. But AT&T has been through this before, as it harvested its declining long distance calling business to invest in new lines of business. To be sure, that effort might be deemed a failure. After all, AT&T sold itself to what was then SBC, which rebranded itself as AT&T. 

But one might argue that failure was one of execution, timing and perhaps luck. Linear satellite television will go the way of long distance voice, eventually. The issue is how to wring value out of that asset (advertising and support for the streaming business) as that process unfolds. 

Fiddling with the ownership structure, or attempting a big merger with Dish, might make more sense were AT&T not committed to being a force in consumer media services. 

The Next Big Thing Will Have Been Discussed 30 Years Ago

The “next big thing” will have first been talked about roughly 30 years ago, says technologist Greg Satell. IBM coined the term machine learning in 1959, for example.


The S curve describes the way new technologies are adopted. It is related to the product life cycle. Many times, reaping the full benefits of a major new technology can take 20 to 30 years. Alexander Fleming discovered penicillin in 1928, it didn’t arrive on the market until 1945, nearly 20 years later.


Electricity, did not have a measurable impact on the economy until the early 1920s, 40 years after Edison’s plant, it can be argued.


It wasn’t until the late 1990’s, or about 30 years after 1968, that computers had a measurable effect on the US economy, many would note.



source: Wikipedia

The point is that the next big thing will turn out to be an idea first broached decades ago, even if it has not been possible to commercialize that idea.

Tuesday, October 8, 2019

OTT as Effective Competition

With the widespread adoption of streaming video services, it was inevitable that change would come in the area of video services regulation. The U.S. Federal Communications Commission now will consider whether the AT&T DirecTV Now service is effective competition for standard cable TV linear video service, according to the Telecom Act of 1996. 

In the larger scheme of things, the decision is narrow, and means local franchise authorities in a few locales cannot regulate basic cable rates. That has been true generally, in most U.S. markets, for some time. As this chart by eMarketer shows, the linear streaming alternatives operate in a different segment of the market from the “on demand” streaming services. 

Up to this point, the on-demand services have generated more revenue, but live streaming (linear streaming) is gaining share as well, and is an alternative to standard cable TV or satellite TV packages. 


The proposed ruling by the FCC  matters for cable TV companies in general and Charter Communications in particular because local franchise authority rate regulation is not imposed when such competition exists. 

That likely ultimately also would be true of competition from other linear streaming services as well, which might offer scores of “live broadcast” video channels, although the specific finding in this instance is that DirecTV Now is relevant under clauses of the Telecommunications Act of 1996 that seek to promote video competition between telcos and cable TV companies. 

Services focused on “on demand” video, such as Netflix or Amazon Prime, presumably would not qualify, for purposes of determining applicable rate regulation, as they do not offer scores of live TV channels. 

Any determination by the FCC would not have wider implications, as effective competition has been deemed to exist in nearly all U.S. markets for decades. 



Monday, October 7, 2019

Linear Streaming to be Deemed an Effective Substitute for Cable TV

With the widespread adoption of streaming video services, it was inevitable that change would come in the area of video services regulation. The U.S. Federal Communications Commission now will consider whether the AT&T DirecTV Now service is effective competition for standard cable TV linear video service, according to the Telecom Act of 1996. 


In the larger scheme of things, the decision is narrow, and means local franchise authorities in a few locales cannot regulate basic cable rates. That has been true generally, in most U.S. markets, for some time. As this chart by eMarketer shows, the linear streaming alternatives operate in a different segment of the market from the “on demand” streaming services. 


Up to this point, the on-demand services have generated more revenue, but live streaming (linear streaming) is gaining share as well, and is an alternative to standard cable TV or satellite TV packages. 




The proposed ruling by the FCC  matters for cable TV companies in general and Charter Communications in particular because local franchise authority rate regulation is not imposed when such competition exists. 


That likely ultimately also would be true of competition from other linear streaming services as well, which might offer scores of “live broadcast” video channels, although the specific finding in this instance is that DirecTV Now is relevant under clauses of the Telecommunications Act of 1996 that seek to promote video competition between telcos and cable TV companies. 


Services focused on “on demand” video, such as Netflix or Amazon Prime, presumably would not qualify, for purposes of determining applicable rate regulation, as they do not offer scores of live TV channels. 


Any determination by the FCC would not have wider implications, as effective competition has been deemed to exist in nearly all U.S. markets for decades. 




Friday, October 4, 2019

How Important is Internet Access? More than Partner or Pet?



Okay, this is sort of light-hearted, but a survey suggests about half of U.K. residents think a reliable internet access connetion is more imporrtant than their significant other. About 70 percent believe reliable internet is more important than the family pet. 




Product Substitution: Plant-Based Protein Largely Fails the Test

It is a truism that substitute products, such as plant-based proteins that mimic meat, must have some obvious value that induces consumers t...