Why Innovation is So Hard

If you have ever spent time and effort trying to create something new in the communications business, you know it rarely is easy, simple or uncomplicated to do so, and the larger the organization you work for, the harder it seems to be. That is because all organizational change involves power and politics, and changes will be resisted.  

You might be familiar with the rule of thumb that 70 percent of organizational change programs fail, in part or completely. 

There is a reason for that experience. Assume you propose some change that requires just two approvals to proceed, with the odds of approval at 50 percent for each step. The odds of getting “yes” decisions in a two-step process are about 25 percent (.5x.5=.25). 

source: John Troller 

The odds get longer for any change process that actually requires multiple approvals. Assume there are five sets of approvals. Assume your odds of success are high--about 66 percent--at each stage. In that case, your odds of success are about one in eight (.66x.66x.66x.66x.66=82/243). 

Consider a study by McKinsey on successful organizational change. That study suggests that about 26 percent of all attempted organizational transformations succeed, whether or not change agents have taken at least 24 discrete actions in support of the change. In that study, the suggested actions are not necessarily the same as approval hurdles. But the principle is likely at work.

source: McKinsey

The more hurdles (approvals) required for a change to happen, the less likely the change will happen. Even when the odds of approval at any stage are 66 percent, the necessity of just five approvals will lead to seven of eight change efforts failing. 

Are Network Slices and Edge Computing Competitive Solutions?

As a rule, there always are many ways to solve a particular computing or communications problem. For connectivity providers, that often means supporting different ways of solving business problems. Network slicing--the ability to create end to end virtual private networks across a 5G core network--is one way to create customized end user networks with specific blends of network performance.

Many potential use cases will revolve around ultra-low latency performance, and network slices are one new way to fulfill such requirements. But edge computing might also be a way to solve the same ultra-low latency requirements.

Connectivity providers offering both edge computing support and network slices will in essence be offering two different ways of solving some problems. 

source: TM Forum

Network slicing, the ability to create virtual private networks that run end to end on 5G networks, provides another opportunity to find out where demand might lie for private networks whose characteristics and performance are better matched to some use cases. That providing that the same functionality is not provided by edge computing, which obviates the need for ultra low latency across the wide area network.

Of course, to the extent network slicing offers business value, potential buyers will have incentives to explore “do it yourself” alternatives when it saves them money. In that sense, edge computing networks are an alternative to network slices. 

source: TM Forum

If ultra-low-latency applications are those which could benefit from network slices, one alternative is do commuting at the edge, and not sending data across wide area networks that are optimized for low latency. In many use cases, the value of ultra-low-latency computing is supplied by edge computing services, with non-real time backup across wide area networks. 

Perhaps ironically, consumer customers who have few other alternatives might be good candidates for internet access with quality of service features a network slice offered by a connectivity provider. But regulations often prevent such offers. Gaming services, work from home conferencing and ultra-high-definition video are among potential use cases. 

Verizon Business, IBM Collaborate for Edge Computing

A new collaboration between Verizon Business and IBM illustrates the way 5G, multi-cloud support, edge computing, artificial intelligence, internet of things, “Industry 4.0,”  private networking are intrinsically related. 

The companies plan to combine Verizon’s 5G and Multi-access Edge Compute (MEC) capabilities, IoT devices and sensors at the edge, and IBM’s expertise in AI, hybrid multi cloud, edge computing, asset management and connected operations. 

source: IBM

The collaboration uses Verizon’s ThingSpace IoT Platform and Critical Asset Sensor solution (CAS) plus IBM’s Maximo Monitor with IBM Watson and advanced analytics. This effort has IBM supplying the needed analytics and multi-cloud computing support; Verizon the edge devices, access network and collocation facilities. 

source: IBM

IBM and Verizon are also working on potential combined solutions for 5G and MEC-enabled use cases such as near real-time cognitive automation for the industrial environment. 

Separately, Verizon says the 5G Future Forum will release its first technical specifications in the third quarter of 2020. The 5G Future Forum is a group of 5G service providers and suppliers working to  accelerate the delivery of Multi-access Edge Computing-enabled solutions around the world.

The 5G Future Forum was established in January 2020 by América Móvil, KT Corp., Rogers, Telstra, Verizon, and Vodafone.

What is edge computing?

S Curve, Bass Model, Gompertz Function

The concept of the S curve has proven to be among the most-significant analytical concepts I have encountered over the years. It describes product life cycles, suggests how business strategy changes depending on where on any single S curve a product happens to be, and has implications for innovation and start-up strategy as well. 

source: Semantic Scholar 

Some say S curves explain overall market development, customer adoption, product usage by individual customers, sales productivity, developer productivity and sometimes investor interest. It often is used to describe adoption rates of new services and technologies, including the notion of non-linear change rates and inflection points in the adoption of consumer products and technologies.

In mathematics, the S curve is a sigmoid function. It is the basis for the Gompertz function which can be used to predict new technology adoption and is related to the Bass Model.

 I’ve seen Gompertz used to describe the adoption of internet access, fiber to the home or mobile phone usage. It is often used in economic modeling and management consulting as well.

We Don't yet Agree on What the "Fourth Industrial Revolution" Entails

One hears quite a lot about how 5G will help power the “fourth industrial revolution.” It never is completely clear how people are using the term, but one way of looking at matters is to recall three earlier revolutions based on mechanized looms, steam power and railroads, oil energy and mass production. Using that typology, computing will power the fourth industrial revolution, which we have been in for some decades. 

source: Carnegie Investment Counsel

Others might describe the revolutions slightly differently, basing the first revolution on mechanization, steam and water power. The second industrial revolution then is mass production based on the use of electricity. The third revolution then was based on use of electronic and information systems plus automation. The fourth revolution then is based on cyber-physical systems. 

source: Britannica

There are yet other ways to describe the fourth industrial revolution, where the first was based on the steam engine, the second on mass production, the third on information technology and the coming fourth on smart finance. Some descriptions of the revolutions focus on steam power, electricity and information technology as the drivers of the first three industrial phases. 

source: Digital Republic

Others think the fourth industrial revolution is about applying artificial intelligence to create autonomous decision making. 

With that amount of disagreement, it seems obvious that we do not yet all agree on what is coming.

Since 1997, U.S. Internet Access Prices Have Dropped 25%, "All Other Prices" Up 50%

Since 1997, U.S. internet access prices have dropped about 25 percent while the prices of “all items” have grown 50 percent, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. 

source: Statista