The concept of the S curve has proven to be among the most-significant analytical concepts I have encountered over the years. It describes product life cycles, suggests how business strategy changes depending on where on any single S curve a product happens to be, and has implications for innovation and start-up strategy as well.
Some say S curves explain overall market development, customer adoption, product usage by individual customers, sales productivity, developer productivity and sometimes investor interest. It often is used to describe adoption rates of new services and technologies, including the notion of non-linear change rates and inflection points in the adoption of consumer products and technologies.
In mathematics, the S curve is a sigmoid function. It is the basis for the Gompertz function which can be used to predict new technology adoption and is related to the Bass Model.
I’ve seen Gompertz used to describe the adoption of internet access, fiber to the home or mobile phone usage. It is often used in economic modeling and management consulting as well.
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