Will Web 3.0 Fail to Meet its Potential?

Web 3.0 often is said to be “decentralized,” featuring applications based on open-source, trustless, and permissionless blockchain networks. If that sounds much like the direction of the present web, that is correct.

We now routinely use open source. The whole internet operates on a "trustless" and "permissionless access basis. But all that will be extended.

Web 3.0 is said to rely on: 

• Blockchain

• Crypto assets

• Low code or “no code” app development

• Artificial intelligence

• Metaverse or extended or virtual reality

• Users able to monetize their data

• Semantic capabilities (machine-readable data)

It also is reasonable to argue that if Web 3.0 develops, it will build on edge computing as well, simply because the sheer amount of data updates--in real time-- for any immersive experience will require high-performance computing very close to the end user. 

source: GlobalData 

As with the original development of "Web 1.0," proponents had grand dreams about universal sharing of knowledge and information. Web 3.0 is pitched by some as a return to such principles. But we are likely to find that matters will not evolve in the ways proponents hope. Web 2.0 has been effectively balkanized by huge firewalls, where some apps are simply prohibited by government authorities. 

And much content is monetized precisely by putting it beyond paywalls. Web 1.0 might have been about communication. Web 2.0 has been about commerce and content. We still do not know how Web 3.0 will play out. 

source: Elastos

What Metaverse Requires of Connectivity and Data Center Suppliers

“The metaverse may be the next generation of the internet,” say researchers at Citi. “Use cases may include everything we use the internet for today with gaming, commerce, art, media, advertising, smart manufacturing, health care, virtual communities, and social collaboration, including for enterprise and education.”

source: Citi 

But the digital infrastructure is not yet ready to support metaverse platforms, looking only at application latency performance. Today’s cloud-based gaming, for example, sports end-to-end latency of between 75 milliseconds and 150 milliseconds. 

But metaverse persistent and immersive  environments will require end-to-end latency more on the order of 12 ms or less. 

source: Citi 

And though we often think of metaverse as something a user accesses using virtual reality goggles, there is good reason to believe metaverse use cases are more likely to happen using smartphones. The point is that value is not based strictly on three-dimensional graphics but “immersion” more generally. 

“You can think about the Metaverse as an embodied internet, where instead of just viewing content, you are in it,” Mark Zuckerberg, Meta CEO, has said. “And you feel present with other people as if you were in other places, having different experiences that you couldn’t necessarily do on a 2D app or webpage.”

So think of “immersion” more than 3D, “realism” more than “avatar.” 

For digital infrastructure providers (narrowly defined), metaverse means investments in latency performance and bandwidth, above all. And that means edge computing, faster broadband and the ability to support untethered devices indoors and outdoors. Wi-Fi will play a part, but so will mobile networks.

SMB IT Priorities are Mostly about Remote Work Support

A survey by Analysys Mason of 1149 of small and mid-sized businesses in Germany, Singapore, the UK and the United States almost predictably suggests those firms will rely more on information technology going forward. In some part, that is because firms expect continued work from home deployments that arguably increase IT support. 

source: Analysys Mason 

Respondents expect roughly 40 percent of employees will work from home for at least some of the time once the Covid-19 crisis is over. This will drive demand for personal computers and mobile devices as well as cloud-based solutions to support remote workers and applications. 

It is probably worth noting that although many use the term “digital infrastructure” to mean connectivity networks, data centers and towers, in the SMB space it is devices and apps that are “digital infrastructure” in a practical sense, as is the case in consumer markets. 

Consumers and SMBs--no less than enterprises--use apps, services and devices. Their “digital infrastructure” is apps and devices. Only on the producer side of the value chain is there a distinction made between devices, apps and “networks and data centers.”

source: Analysys Mason 

From an SMB perspective, IT goals will be to support remote workers and protect apps and devices from hackers or data breaches. 

source: Analysys Mason 

Small firms are defined as having one to 99 employees while mid-sized firms have 100 to 999 employees.

Most Institutional Investors Will Hold Digital Infrastructure Assets

institutional investors now view tower and other digital infrastructure assets in the same way they once viewed real estate holdings. Traditionally, real estate was viewed as an asset with predictable and strong cash flows and a lower correlation with equity markets. Also, such assets are believed to be more protected from inflation. 

source: OECD

In other words, institutional investors now view digital infrastructure in the same way they view transportation, energy and other utility assets. 

Infrastructure assets are commonly used to diversify portfolios. 

As with utilities, barriers to competition were important. Over the past few decades, digital infrastructure assets have also been “de-risked” to a large extent, moving them closer to the traditional real estate model. 

source: Schroders 

In search of yield, infrastructure investors also are taking a more-active stance in management, where they might previously have limited their scope to investment-only approaches. Some 80 percent to 90 percent of institutional investors express interest in digital infrastructure assets.  

Though some digital infrastructure investors are active only in “hard” assets such as towers, data centers and networks, others view the broader ecosystem as including applications and services plus devices. 

source: Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank

That view of “hard and soft” is essentially “tangible and intangible” parts of the infrastructure ecosystem. 

source: LBBW

Telco Infra Suppliers Slowly Change

Some changes in telco infrastructure sales in any given year in the fraction of a percent range would not surprise anyone. What might be notable is Amazon appearing in the top 10 of infrastructure suppliers with share gains in the top four. 

As you might expect, given the shift to open source and virtualized platforms traditional suppliers lost a bit of share. Ericsson, Nokia and Huawei all lost share in 2021. 

source: MTN Consulting 

source: Statista 

Huawei continues to lead annual sales, followed by Nokia and Ericsson. 

source: MTN Consulting 

How Metaverse Drives Data Center, Connectivity Investments

As video content distribution has shaped global demand for inter-continental data transport and high-speed connections between major data centers, the metaverse will shape data center and connectivity network requirements. And the key words are “more” and “less.”

“Making the metaverse a reality will require significant advancements in network latency, symmetrical bandwidth and overall speed of networks,” says Dan Rabinovitsj, Meta VP for connectivity. 

The metaverse “will require innovations in fields like hybrid local and remote real-time rendering, video compression, edge computing, and cross-layer visibility, as well as spectrum advocacy, work on metaverse readiness of future connectivity and cellular standards, network optimizations, improved latency between devices and within radio access networks (RANs), and more,” he says. 

Already, experts predict Metaverse environments will require more data centers, more edge computing, more distributed computing, more collocation, more content distribution mechanisms, will require more power consumption and more cooling.

Eventually, fully-developed metaverses will require advances in chip technology as well. Beyond all that, blockchain will probably be necessary to support highly-decentralized value exchanges. And it is impossible to separate metaverse platforms and experiences from use of artificial intelligence, for business or consumer uses. 

source: iCapital Network 

If metaverses are built on persistent and immersive computing and tightly-integrated software stacks, platforms will be necessary. New developments in chip manufacturing also will be needed. 

For connectivity providers--especially internet service providers--far lower latency will be key. Today’s latency-sensitive applications such as video calling and cloud-based games have to meet a round-trip time latency of 75 milliseconds to 150 ms. Multi-player, complex games might require 30 ms latency. 

“A head-mounted mixed reality display, where graphics will have to be rendered on screen in response to where someone is focusing their eyes, things will need to move an order of magnitude faster: from single to low double digit ms,” says Rabinovitsj. 

Image rendering will require edge computing. “We envision a future where remote rendering over edge cloud, or some form of hybrid between local and remote rendering, plays a greater role,” he adds. “Enabling remote rendering will require both fixed and mobile networks to be rearchitected to create compute resources at a continuum of distances to end users.”

Bandwidth could increase by orders of magnitude over what is required to view 720p video on a standard smartphone screen. That might work with just 1.3 Mbps to 1.6 Mbps of downlink throughput. 

But a head-mounted display sitting just centimeters from the eyes required to display images at retina grade resolution will need to be many orders of magnitude larger, he notes. 

To be sure, most of what happens that is part of metaverse experiences rests on things that happen up the stack from computing and communications. 

source: Constellation Research

But we already can see how metaverse support will require changes in computing architecture and network capabilities.

FTTH Network Element Deveolopments Change Cost, Architecture Possibilities

For a variety of reasons--higher government subsidies; higher consumer demand; higher interest by institutional investors in digital infrastructure assets; evolution of the network elements and a change in financial return assumptions--fiber to the home has an investment profile that is higher than it used to be. 

On the network cost front, some sort of subtle changes in network element features also play a role. 

Telco outside plant architectures were strict “star” designs in the copper era. Though network designed used multiplexing as much as possible, the basic design was a star. 

source: Corning

But there are some changes that can affect fiber to home construction cost. Corning, for example, touts the use of its connectors that do not require splicing. Since labor--not materials--represent the biggest portion of FTTH network construction, total costs should be lower when less labor is required. 

Still, materials costs are different when an architecture that is more like a “bus” or “tree” and less like a “star” is possible. For terrestrial networks using cables, the advantage of the bus is less cabling bulk. 

Telco FTTH networks can use architectures that are partly bus and partly star. The advantage includes some savings on cable, as is true for bus designs.

 

source: Corning

In Corning’s case, connectors that eliminate splicing are not just a way to speed construction, they also allow more hybrid architectures that are more like buses in the trunking part of the network (which allows more sharing and multiplexing) while retaining the star for distribution to end points. . 

source: Utechnoworld

The practical implications for FTTH network construction is that costs should be lower than they have been in the past. That, plus changes in consumer demand (higher) and government subsidies (also higher) plus higher demand on the part of institutional investors for digital infrastructure assets as a form of real estate, are propelling faster investment in FTTH in the U.S. market.