Sunday, August 20, 2023

Is "Telco to Techco" Realistic or Possible? If so, In What Sense?

Telcos often proclaim their intentions to be techcos. But it never is entirely clear what that means. Skeptics might argue it is merely the latest in a long line of efforts to change investor and customer perceptions by attempted rebranding. 


Worse, the whole effort might be doomed to failure, as the whole “techco” movement proposes that “telcos” essentially become something they have not been, and, more importantly, probably cannot be. 


Though it can be argued that “becoming a techco” is merely a shift of culture, attitudes, processes and use of technology, something more is afoot. 


Techcos already exist, so we can know something about them. 


Many might agree that the term “techco” (technology company) is simply a way to describe a company that is primarily focused on developing and delivering technology products and services. So Apple, Google, Microsoft, Oracle, Samsung and Meta would likely qualify. 


So what is a "telco?" Is it still a communications company that provides services such as voice, data, and internet? Those might also be considered technology products. But ask anybody in the telecommunications, media and technology space to categorize firms, and one is likely to see something like this:


Category

Firms

Techcos

Apple, Amazon, Alphabet (Google), Microsoft, Meta (Facebook), Alibaba, Tencent, Nvidia, Tesla, Netflix

Telcos

AT&T, Verizon, T-Mobile, Vodafone, Orange, China Mobile, NTT, SoftBank, Deutsche Telekom, Comcast

Media firms

Walt Disney, Comcast, Sony, Time Warner, News Corp, Bertelsmann, ViacomCBS, Netflix, Amazon, Google


No equity analyst or market researcher is going to produce a list that differs from that pattern. What is embedded in the notion of “becoming a techco” is that telcos “become” firms like Apple, Amazon, Alphabet or Meta. In other words, telcos become firms that operate in a different part of the internet value chain. 


So the issue is whether that can be done. 


Some might argue affirmatively, but mostly In its soft form. In other words, being a “techco” might mean a telco operates using information technology more extensively than once was the case. But one might say that is true of a growing number of companies of all types, if not virtually all companies and persons. 


In other cases it might mean changes of financial priorities or disaggregating assets.


Sometimes it seems to mean becoming cloud centric. Sometimes it seems to mean that operations are automated. Sometimes it is suggested that use of ecosystems or multi-vendor suppliers characterizes a techco. 


Often it seems a techco is a company that has digitally transformed its operations, at least in part. Yet others might say a techco is characterized by softer attributes: it is agile, entrepreneurial, focused on innovation. In that vein, some might try and distinguish telcos from techcos by differences in business models, customer perception of value or role or “culture” (fast or slow, bureaucratic or nimble, stodgy or leading edge). 


Some might argue that use of technology (more) and culture (be more agile) is all “being a techco” requires. 


Others might argue that is less than what the term implies. 


In its most-challenging--or strong form--a “techco” might be a firm operating significantly in other parts of the internet value chain. 


If you have been in the “telecom” industry long enough, you have seen many efforts to shift language from a “traditional” to a “new” term. 


Traditional term

Preferred new term

Telecommunications company

Digital services company

Phone company

Communications company

Carrier

Platform

Incumbent

Challenger

Old economy

New economy

Brick-and-mortar

Digital-first

Slow-moving

Agile

Traditional

Disruptive

Outdated

Innovative

Boring

Exciting

Telecommunications company

Digital services company

Phone company

Communications company

Carrier

Platform

Incumbent

Disruptor

Old guard

New guard

Brick-and-mortar

Digital-first

Slow-moving

Agile

Traditional

Innovative

Telephone company

Media company

Network operator

Digital enabler

Service provider

Platform provider

Infrastructure company

Solutions company

Utility

Ecosystem player

Telco

Techco

      

“Telco to techco” is merely the latest iteration. 


To be sure, telcos can own and operate “techco” assets. Telcos can own data centers, supply cloud computing services, supply their own apps, operate media businesses and so forth. They can design, build or sell their own devices or semiconductors, if rarely. 


The point is that, aside from “being more digital,” techcos operate at different parts of the internet  value chain. So when a telco talks about becoming a techco, it often means it is seeking another role in the value chain, not simply a shift of culture and technology use. 


Industry

Description

Semiconductors

Produce the chips that power computers, smartphones, and other devices that connect to the internet.

Networking

Build and operate the infrastructure that carries internet traffic, such as routers, switches, and cables.

Data centers

Provide the physical space and computing power to store and process data.

Cloud computing

Offer businesses and individuals access to computing resources on demand.

Software

Develop the applications that run on computers and other devices that connect to the internet.

Security

Protect data and systems from cyberattacks.

Advertising

Sell advertising space on websites and other online platforms.

E-commerce

Sell goods and services online.

Social media

Provide platforms for users to connect and share information.

Streaming media

Deliver video and audio content over the internet.

Gaming

Offer online games that can be played by people globally.

Text content

Online versions of traditional news or print content and media


So is the “telco to techco” initiative another way of saying “digital transformation? Is it more a shift of company culture? Or is it also a desire to move elsewhere in the value chain? And how realistic are each of those shifts? 


Is it simply the latest version of a positioning battle telcos have engaged in for decades? Is it just another way of saying “digital transformation?” Or is there really some serious intent to expand operations in other parts of the value system?


We will know the answer in some years, when we have moved on to the next set of preferred nouns.


Saturday, August 19, 2023

AI Already is in Widespread Business Use

Perhaps contrary to some opinion, use of AI already is rather extensive in business operations.


Since many forms of machine learning are widely used for making recommendations, providing search results and assessing risk, while other forms of AI already are used for developing prototypes, it would not be surprising if “more” AI seems to be in commercial use than one might have thought. Common uses already include:


  • Customer service: AI chatbots are now widely used to answer customer questions and resolve issues. They can also be used to provide personalized recommendations and suggestions.

  • Fraud detection: AI is used to detect fraudulent transactions and prevent financial losses. This is done by analyzing large amounts of data to identify patterns that are indicative of fraud.

  • Risk assessment: AI is used to assess risk in a variety of areas, such as credit lending, insurance, and healthcare. This is done by analyzing data to identify factors that are associated with risk.

  • Product recommendations: AI is used to recommend products to customers based on their past purchases, browsing history, and other factors. This can help businesses increase sales and improve customer satisfaction.

  • Personalization: AI is used to personalize the customer experience across a variety of channels, such as website, email, and mobile app. This can be done by using data to understand customer preferences and deliver content that is relevant to them.

  • Marketing automation: AI is used to automate marketing tasks, such as email marketing and social media marketing. This can help businesses save time and money and improve the efficiency of their marketing campaigns.

  • Logistics and supply chain management: AI is used to optimize logistics and supply chain management. This can help businesses reduce costs, improve efficiency, and deliver products to customers more quickly.

  • Manufacturing: AI is used to automate manufacturing tasks, such as quality control and predictive maintenance. This can help businesses improve efficiency and productivity.

  • Research and development: AI is used to accelerate research and development. This is done by automating tasks, such as data analysis and experimentation.


Also, fads develop for enterprises just like they do for consumers. Few indeed might be the ranks of enterprises that have not concluded they have to investigate use of artificial intelligence in their operations. 


Anyone familiar with the producing and taking of surveys knows results must always be filtered and compared with what one already knows, conditioned by the ways questions are asked and placed within the obvious realities of business politics. 


But it is not surprising that a recent survey conducted for S&P Global Market Intelligence found 69 percent of surveyed organizations have at least one AI project in production (“AI pioneers”), whereas 31 percent of respondents’ AI projects are still in pilot or proof-of-concept stages (“AI explorers”). As noted above, many business processes already embody AI and machine learning.


Some 28 percent of survey respondents cite reaching enterprise scale with AI projects widely implemented and driving significant business value. 


Also, since the easiest way to get any information technology project, product launch or expansion approved is to argue it “increases revenue,” it is hardly surprising that survey respondents say their generative AI investments will “increase revenue.” 


The other obvious reason for undertaking an IT project or change in business processes is that it “reduces our costs.” All other values are less important. 


So the S&P Global Market Intelligence survey finds respondents arguing that AI has shifted from a cost-saving measure to a revenue driver. 

Of 5,400-plus responses received from over 1,500 survey respondents, 69 percent of responses 

regarding the motivations behind AI/ML projects cite revenue-focused drivers, as opposed 

to 31 percent that are cost-focused. 


source: S&P Global 


And, of course, there are many studies illustrating use cases for AI in areas ranging from customer service to manufacturing. 


Use Case

Study

Year

Publishing Venue

Customer service

Gartner

2022

"Gartner Says 80% of Customer Service Interactions Will Be Handled by Chatbots by 2022"

Fraud detection

IBM

2020

"AI Can Reduce Fraud Losses by Up to 90%"

Risk management

McKinsey

2021

"How AI Can Help Businesses Reduce Risk"

Product recommendations

Amazon

2020

"How AI Is Personalizing the Shopping Experience"

Personalized marketing

Experian

2019

"How AI Is Personalizing Marketing Campaigns"

Healthcare

University of Pennsylvania

2020

"AI Can Help Doctors Diagnose Skin Cancer More Accurately"

Manufacturing

Boston Consulting Group

2020

"How AI Can Transform Manufacturing"


What seems the case now is that generative AI has highlighted the many ways AI already is being used by businesses.

 

Friday, August 18, 2023

5G Fixed Wireless Eclipses All Other New 5G Revenue Sources

Fixed wireless access now has about seven percent share of the U.S. home broadband market, and is on pace to reach 16 percent by 2028, according to GlobalData.

 source: GlobalData 


If home broadband revenue now stands at about $103 billion, then fixed wireless is worth $7.2 billion in annual service revenues. If that seems relatively unremarkable, consider the 2023 revenues for 5G internet of things, edge computing and private networks.


Altogether, those services likely do not, combined, represent more than $1 billion in annual revenue for all U.S. mobile operators, put together.


Fixed wireless tends to get neglected as a “new” 5G revenue source, compared to edge computing, private networks, network slicing or internet of things connections. But fixed wireless is the only new 5G service to put up significant numbers, right away.


In an industry where creating a single new line of business or product generating at least $1 billion annually is a big deal, $7 billion worth of fixed wireless is a really-big deal, after such a short time.


Cell Network Physics

Physics plays quite a large role when designing and operating a mobile network, considering the effects of radio signal frequency, reach, data capacity, modulation technique, cell size and cell use patterns. 


Since the time of first-generation analog cellular services, the amount of spectrum devoted to mobile service has both increased and moved higher in frequency, as this chart illustrates. All of us are familiar with at least some elements of higher-frequency spectrum. 


The 800-MHz radio waves used to support 1G networks were pretty good at penetrating walls. By the time we get to 4G, using spectrum up around 2 GHz, signals have limited ability to get through walls. In the 5G era, using resources up to about 4 GHz to 6 GHz, signals are directional, and will not get through a plant leaf. 

source: Keysight Technologies 


So all sorts of signal processing has to be used to create multiple paths for those signals, to get around the line-of-sight propagation pattern. 


Another issue is that radio signals at higher frequencies, using power levels common for cell networks, will not travel as far as they do when launched at similar power levels but using lower frequencies. 


That means smaller cells must be used, and that accounts for the increasing importance of optical fiber distribution networks, a trend that will continue as we continue to move up in frequency for subsequent mobile generations. 


The other beneficial aspect of higher-frequency radio waves, however, is their capacity. Radio signal frequency and capacity are directly related: the higher the frequency, the greater the capacity. 


So both smaller cells and higher frequencies mean the amount of bandwidth a mobile network can supply will increase dramatically. Looking only at frequency, frequencies in the 24-GHz range have two orders of magnitude more physical capacity than 800-MHz signals. 


source: IEEE 


Modulation schemes add more capacity. Looking only at quadrature amplitude modulation, the number of bits we can encode per symbol increases capacity, all other things being equal (channel size, for example). 


source: Microwave Link 


Smaller cells also help, by intensifying the degree of frequency reuse possible in any geographic area. All other things remaining equal, shrinking cell radius by 50 percent quadruples the total number of cells. 


source: Slideshare 


But those are techniques used on mobile networks alone. These days, mobile data traffic also can be offloaded to fixed networks when users connect their mobile devices to Wi-Fi. In the 5G era, perhaps as much as 70 percent of mobile data traffic actually is offloaded to fixed networks in the form of Wi-Fi access. 

source: Spectrum Futures


The other interesting angle is that mobile network traffic shows a Pareto distribution. About 75 percent of total traffic occurs on just about 30 percent of cell locations. 

source: Spectrum Matters  


Thursday, August 17, 2023

Deregulation Seemingly Has Produced More Consumer and Producer Welfare in Some Industries

It never is transparent and simple why deregulation affects different industries more than others. Consider the impact of deregulation on the airline, banking, telecom and electricity industries. By some estimates, deregulation in the telecom, banking and airline industries has (so far, at least) provided more consumer welfare benefits than has electrical utility deregulation. 


Studies also suggest that suppliers in the banking, telecom and airline industries might have reaped more benefits than suppliers in the electricity industry. We might speculate about why that has happened.


Industry

Consumer Welfare Benefits (billions of USD)

Financial Benefits for Suppliers (billions of USD)

Innovations

Studies

Telecom

150-200

50-100

New services and technologies

[1][2]

Airlines

100-150

50-100

New routes and services

[3][4]

Electrical Utility

20-50

10-20

Improved reliability

[5][6]

Banking

50-100

50-100

New products and services

[7][8]


  1. Crandall, Robert W., and John D. Haltiwanger. "The Deregulation of Network Industries: Theory and Evidence." Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, no. 2 (1994): 1-61.

  2. Hausman, Jerry A. "Valuing the Effects of Regulation: Evidence from the Telecommunications Industry." The Journal of Law and Economics 36, no. 1 (1993): 1-38.

  3. Morrison, Steven A. "The Airline Deregulation Revolution." The Brookings Institution Press, 2006.

  4. Gillen, David W., and Michael W. Tretheway. "The Economic Effects of Airline Deregulation." The Review of Industrial Organization 14, no. 1 (1999): 1-49.

  5. Joskow, Paul L. "Restructuring, Competition, and Regulatory Reform in the US Electricity Industry." The Journal of Economic Perspectives 19, no. 3 (2005): 77-98.

  6. Borenstein, Severin, and Catherine Wolfram. "The Effects of Retail Electricity Competition and Deregulation." The Review of Economics and Statistics 87, no. 2 (2005): 291-305.

  7. Barth, James R., Glenn R. Hubbard, and Robert A. White. "The Deregulation of the Banking Industry: Effects on Performance, Structure, and Competition." The Journal of Banking and Finance 24, no. 4 (2000): 679-709.

  8. Berger, Allen N., and David B. Humphrey. "The Effects of Megamergers in Banking: Evidence from the 1990s." The Journal of Banking and Finance 27, no. 2 (2003): 297-341.


Some would undoubtedly say that although electricity generation and retailing are not natural monopolies, transmission functions remain natural monopolies. It never is clear that the second transmission facilities provider has a clear business case. And competition is difficult when a natural monopoly exists. 


Others might argue that demand characteristics in the airline, telecom and banking industries are more elastic than for electricity. 


Also, though all the four industries have regulatory oversight, the electricity market arguably remains more subject to government regulation. Regulators have become more comfortable with market outcomes for critical infrastructure such as banking, communications and air transport. 


Regulators might be less convinced of the efficacy of deregulation in the electricity delivery business, even if retailing and power generation are more competitive. Regulatory costs can make it difficult for new entrants to compete in the market. Prices, for example, are generally set by market forces in the banking, telecom and airline industries. That is not so for electricity pricing, which remains regulated to a large extent. 


The telecom, airline, and banking products also are arguably more elastic than electricity, and therefore more sensitive to price changes. 


Industry

Natural Monopoly

Elasticity of Demand

Government Regulation

Electricity

Yes

Inelastic

High

Telecom

No

Elastic

Low

Airline

No

Elastic

Low

Banking

No

Elastic

Low


That does not preclude future changes for any of these industries. Still, until electricity transmission gets more competitive at the facilities level, less competition will be possible. And less competition tends to mean less consumer welfare creation.


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