Wednesday, October 25, 2023

C-Band is a Huge Deal for Verizon: Extends Home Broadband Addressable Market from 25% to Virtually 100%

One iron rule for internet access services is that if one has enough bandwidth, access speeds can be very high. For mobile operators, bandwidth expansion can come in a few ways: adding more spectrum, building smaller cells or deploying better modulation techniques or radios.


In that regard, for 5G, mid-band spectrum has been key for firms such as Verizon, which have had less mid-band spectrum than others. The difference is striking. 


After deploying C-band spectrum, Verizon mobile peak speeds “go from 9 Mbps to an amazing 2.4 gigabits per second,” said Hans Vestberg, Verizon CEO.


That has implications for home broadband as well, as, in principle, peak speeds might reach gigabit per second levels. And that, in turn, is important because it dramatically extends the addressable market for fixed wireless from perhaps 25 percent of buyers to perhaps 99 percent of buyers (those who buy home broadband at speeds up to about 2 Gbps, and do not require symmetrical access)


True, Verizon has millimeter wave assets to deploy in urban areas, but C-band means fixed wireless has higher bandwidth in suburban and rural areas as well. 


For Verizon, which has a smaller fixed network footprint than many of its leading competitors, that really does matter, as it means Verizon can compete for home broadband customers who want higher speeds in most U.S. geographic areas. 


Of a total of 140 million U.S.  homes, AT&T’s landline network passes 62 million. Comcast has (can actually sell service to) about 57 million homes passed.


The Charter Communications network passes about 50 million homes, the number of potential customer locations it can sell to.


The number of Verizon homes passed might be 27 million. Lumen Technologies never reports its homes-passed figures, but likely has 20-million or so consumer locations.


The point is that Verizon cannot easily expand its fiber to home footprint outside its historic service areas, for reasons of investment magnitude. So fixed wireless makes eminent sense for a firm that can presently reach only about 19 percent of U.S. homes using its fixed network. 


The same sort of logic holds for T-Mobile, which historically has had zero access network fixed network footprint. There is neither time nor money for T-Mobile to wire the entire country, or even a substantial part of it, using FTTH. 


So C-band is a really big deal. It extends Verizon’s home broadband addressable market from about 25 percent of homes to up to 100-percent of homes.


Tuesday, October 24, 2023

The Purpose of Deregulation is to Cause Leaders to Lost Market Share

The functional purpose of any industry deregulation is to cause incumbents to lose market share. The functional purpose of new regulation often is to restrict market share held by market leaders, eventually causing share loss for the leaders. As regulators examine markets led by hyperscale app providers, that is going to be a relevant issue.


That is precisely what has happened in the connectivity business. That will be the case for possible regulatory restrictions placed on hyperscale app providers, as was true for connectivity providers.


Consider services purchased by enterprises. 


Though Verizon, AT&T and Comcast stand atop the market share ranking for sales of connectivity services to U.S. enterprises, about 40 percent is shared by a number of other providers. 


Company

Percentage

Verizon

25%

AT&T

20%

Comcast

15%

Other specialized connectivity service providers

40%


Among them are: 

  • Lumen Technologies

  • Cogent Communications

  • Windstream

  • Zayo Group

  • Equinix

  • Digital Realty

  • Telehouse

  • NTT Communications

  • GTT Communications

  • Tata Communications


To be sure, U.S. enterprise spending on information technology services and products has grown steadily since 2000, according to IDC estimates. The issue is market share, as many new competitors have entered the market. 


Year

Services

Products

Total

2000

242.0

295.0

537.0

2001

234.0

275.0

509.0

2002

227.0

250.0

477.0

2003

220.0

225.0

445.0

2004

213.0

200.0

413.0

2005

206.0

175.0

381.0

2006

200.0

150.0

350.0

2007

206.0

175.0

381.0

2008

212.0

200.0

412.0

2009

218.0

225.0

443.0

2010

224.0

250.0

474.0

2011

230.0

275.0

505.0

2012

236.0

300.0

536.0

2013

242.0

325.0

567.0

2014

248.0

350.0

598.0

2015

254.0

375.0

629.0

2016

260.0

400.0

660.0

2017

266.0

425.0

691.0

2018

272.0

450.0

722.0

2019

278.0

475.0

753.0

2020

284.0

500.0

784.0

2021

290.0

525.0

815.0

2022

296.0

550.0

846.0

2023

302.0

575.0

877.0


DIY and Licensed GenAI Patterns Will Continue

As always with software, firms are going to opt for a mix of "do it yourself" owned technology and licensed third party offerings....