Consumer Feedback on Smartphone AI Isn't That Helpful

It is a truism that consumers cannot envision what they never have seen, so perhaps it is not too surprising that artificial intelligence smartphone features people say they want are augmentations or enhancements to features they already use. 

source: YouGov

Consumer surveys might provide more-relevant feedback for existing  products that might be enhanced in some way using AI or other digital technologies.

Product	Description	Reason for Lack of Consumer Insight
Smart Sleep Mask	A sleep mask that uses sound and light therapy	Consumers may not fully understand the benefits of sleep tech.
AR Navigation Glasses	Glasses providing augmented reality navigation	Difficulty in envisioning practical daily use and advantages.
Wearable Stress Monitor	A device that tracks stress levels and suggests coping methods	Lack of awareness about stress management tools.
Personalized Nutrition App	An app that tailors meal plans to individual genetics	Consumers might not be aware of how genetics affect nutrition.
Modular Smart Furniture	Furniture that can be reconfigured for various needs	Novelty in furniture concepts may confuse potential users.
Biodegradable Phone Cases	Eco-friendly cases that decompose after use	Limited consumer knowledge about environmental impacts of plastics.
Virtual Reality Fitness Games	Immersive games that promote physical activity	Skepticism about fitness benefits of gaming; unfamiliarity with VR.
Smart Pet Feeder	Automatic feeder that dispenses food on schedule	Pet owners may not see the value of automation in pet care.
Language Translation Earbuds	Real-time translation via wireless earbuds	Consumers might not grasp the practical applications in daily life.
Holographic Displays	3D displays for personal and professional use	People may not fully understand how holography can enhance experiences.

But there arguably is more difficulty ascertaining consumer demand for products that did not exist in the past, even if, in some cases, digital versions of previous analog consumer goods were introduced. The iPod might have been “revolutionary” in the music player category, but people already were familiar with portable music-playing devices. 

Smartphones already existed before the Apple iPhone, but the ease of use was a major advance. E-book readers were a new appliance concept, but the advantages of immediate content downloading, similar to the advantage of music player content downloading, might have eased consumer acceptance, even if nobody really had experience using such a device in the past. 

Product	Company	Category	Description
iPod	Apple	Digital Music Player	Revolutionized how people listen to music with a portable device and iTunes.
iPhone	Apple	Smartphone	Combined a phone, iPod, and internet communicator, transforming mobile tech.
iPad	Apple	Tablet Computer	Created a new segment between smartphones and laptops for media consumption.
Apple Watch	Apple	Smartwatch	Integrated fitness tracking, notifications, and health monitoring in a wearable.
AirPods	Apple	True Wireless Earbuds	Popularized wireless earbuds, emphasizing convenience and sound quality.
Kindle	Amazon	E-Reader	Pioneered the e-reader market, changing how people consume books digitally.
Nest Learning Thermostat	Nest (now Google)	Smart Thermostat	Introduced smart home technology that learns user preferences for energy saving.
Fitbit	Fitbit	Fitness Tracker	Created a category for wearable fitness technology focused on health tracking.
Oculus Rift	Oculus (now Meta)	Virtual Reality Headset	Brought immersive VR experiences to consumers, paving the way for gaming and more.
Microsoft Surface	Microsoft	2-in-1 Laptop	Blended laptop and tablet functionality, creating a new form factor for devices.

The point is that most AI innovations are extrapolations from what we already know. In most cases that is likely useful, but also unlikely to create a platform for whole new industries with new value propositions and products. 

As a corollary, it also is virtually impossible to quantify demand for such innovations, as consumers would not be able to envision their use of the new products, even if innovators can try to describe them. 

New Product Category	Year Introduced	Difficulty of Evaluating Consumer Demand
Smartphones	2007	High
E-cigarettes	2003	High
Smart speakers	2014	Medium
Ride-sharing services	2009	High
Virtual reality headsets	2016	High
Meal kit delivery services	2012	Medium
Cryptocurrency	2009	Very High
Electric scooters (sharing)	2017	Medium
Streaming media services	2007	Medium
Wearable fitness trackers	2009	Medium

At least so far, AI features for lots of products are appearing. It remains unclear whether any of those adaptations will decisively change product demand. For example, observers speculate about the ability of Apple Intelligence to spur sales of Apple iPhones. But each new generation of iPhones creates sales volume for other reasons. 

Each new generation of iPhone typically features a mix of technological advancements, design updates, and features.

Camera Upgrades; better displays; longer battery life; updated operating systems; faster processors and handset designs (colors, bezels, materials) tend to be the focus. Apple Intelligence is such an enhancement, but so far seems focused on enhancing existing iPhone functions. 

We still do not see a breakthrough use case that redefines the category or creates a new category. And even if such a use case were to emerge, consumers would not be able to provide much useful feedback about demand.

What Declining Industry Can Afford to Alienate Half its Customers?

Some people believe the new trend of major U.S. newspapers declining to make endorsements in presidential races is an abdication of their “public interest” duties. But the simple matter is that news and information sources have shifted dramatically over the last several decades. 

So some might say that the huge decline in newspaper readership since 1996 simply suggests that people are getting their news and information elsewhere. That, in turn, has led to industry decline. 

If asked, consumers might well say they are as likely to get their news and information from podcasts as from newspapers. Twice as many are likely to say they get their news from television. Three times as many consumers might say they get their news and information from online news sites, while 2.5 times as many people might say they get their news from social media sites. 

Media Type	Percentage of Consumers
Online News Websites	36%
Social Media	30%
Television	25%
Print Newspapers	12%
Radio	8%
News Aggregators (e.g., Google News, Apple News)	18%
Podcasts	12%
Mobile Apps (News Apps)	15%

Where U.S. newspaper revenue was about $50 billion in 1996, it might be less than $14 billion in 2024. 

Year	Newspaper Revenue (in billions)
1996	$50.00
1997	$50.40
1998	$51.00
1999	$51.90
2000	$49.40
2001	$48.70
2002	$46.30
2003	$43.90
2004	$44.40
2005	$43.80
2006	$41.80
2007	$40.00
2008	$36.90
2009	$34.00
2010	$30.30
2011	$28.00
2012	$26.00
2013	$24.00
2014	$23.00
2015	$22.00
2016	$20.00
2017	$19.30
2018	$18.00
2019	$15.40
2020	$14.50
2021	$14.10
2022	$13.90
2023	$14.2 (estimate)

In other words, the U.S. newspaper business has shrunk nearly 75 percent since 1996. A declining industry can ill afford to alienate up to half its remaining customers. 

All that downsizing suggests a practical economic reality exists. Newspaper endorsements are inherently partisan, and therefore risk alienating up to half of readers. 

I know of few industries willing to deliberately antagonize up to half their potential customers, especially not industries that obviously are declining.